NFL Wild Card Weekend: Bills vs Jaguars Best Bets & Predictions

For years, it’s been easy to lose sight of the AFC South. The division hasn’t produced a Super Bowl Champion since 2006. By extension, it’s easy to dismiss those teams’ chances in what’s perceived to be an inferior division. But look past the Jacksonville Jaguars at your own peril. The Jags figured things out on offense this season, and we’ve seen worse teams than Jacksonville give the Buffalo Bills fits. Most bettors could be looking straight past the Jaguars, but the sharpest minds know the value on the home side. 

Can the Jaguars pull off the massive upset in Wild Card Weekend?  

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Where to Watch Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

• Stadium: EverBank Stadium
• Location: Jacksonville, FL
• Where to Watch: CBS
• Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds

• Spread: BUF -1.5 (-102) | JAX +1.5 (-120)
• Total: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
• Moneyline: BUF -108 | JAX -108

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Kalshi Odds

• Chance: BUF 51% | JAX 49%
• Spread: BUF -2.5 Yes 45¢ | No 56¢
• Total: Over 51.5 Yes 53¢ | No 49¢

Losses were few and far between for the Bills this season. Still, there is a clear blueprint Jacksonville can follow if it hopes to knock the Bills off their Super Bowl futures pedestal. Subdue Josh Allen, and the Bills’ attack falls apart. The reigning MVP has a proven track record, but the Jags’ defensive line should have no problem overpowering Buffalo’s trenchmen. In doing so, the Bills’ chances of victory diminish quickly.

In Buffalo’s five losses this season, we saw a dramatic decrease in their offensive efficiency. The AFC East runner-ups mustered just 337.4 yards per game, almost a 60-yard drop relative to their offensive production in wins. We have to connect a couple of dots, but this decrease in production actually correlates with an increase in passing. Playing from behind, the Bills are forced to lean on their passing attack rather than their ground game to control the clock. With more passing attempts comes increased susceptibility to getting sacked, disrupting the timing and rhythm of their entire offense. 

In defeat, Allen has been sacked 21 times, getting taken down three or more times in all but one of those contests. Contrastingly, the Bills’ quarterback was sacked only 19 times across Buffalo’s 12 wins. More importantly, when Allen gets sacked, he loses his rushing ability. Again, it hampers the Bills’ outlook and forces them into a one-dimensional passing attack that is easier to defend. 

Pressuring Allen is the key to victory, provided the Jags’ offense takes care of business. With 34 or more points in four of its last five games, Jacksonville can deploy its balanced attack to keep the chains moving and keep the Bills’ offense off the field. We’re betting that’s the case on Sunday, and are backing the Jags in this AFC Wild Card matchup. 

Best Bet: Jaguars -108

Jacksonville’s success is contingent on executing on defense. Arik Armstead finished the year on solid footing, and Josh Hines-Allen has been unstoppable all season. Still, we’re betting that Travon Walker makes the most significant impact in the Wild Card Round. 

Walker’s production has taken a bit of a hit in 2025. The linebacker-turned-defensive end has seen a dramatic decrease in his sacks, going from ten or more in each of the last two seasons to 3.5 this year. The positional change accounts for some of that loss. Still, Walker’s underlying metrics support that we should see an increase in sacks in the short term.

In 14 games (12 starts) this season, the former first-overall pick is generating 1.4 quarterback pressures and 0.9 quarterback hits per game. Comparatively, that puts him marginally ahead of his QB hits per game from last season, and only slightly behind his pressure metrics. Against a Bills’ offensive line that allows 2.4 sacks per game, including 2.8 on the road, Walker should maintain his production, resulting in improved output. 

Pressure is the name of the game, and the Jags should excel at home. Allen-Hines is the odds-on favorite to get to Allen, but the best value lies in backing Walker to record a sack. We’re betting on the Jags’ defensive end to do precisely that at EverBank Stadium. 

Best Bet: Travon Walker to Record a Sack +184

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NFL Wild Card Weekend: Bills vs Jaguars Best Bets & Predictions

• Jaguars -108
• Travon Walker to Record a Sack +184

Jacksonville has the blueprint to beat the Bills and the personnel to execute it. Walker will be a factor and is a prime value candidate to record a sack at home. 

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