NFL Week 12 Thursday Night Football | Bills vs Texans Most Bet Player Props

Week 12 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between two AFC contenders, and bettors have already zeroed in on the most popular player props at BetMGM. With the Buffalo Bills’ run defense leaking yards and the Houston Texans’ secondary holding strong, the prop board reflects two very different defensive identities — and the public is leaning heavily into those trends.

Here’s a breakdown of the Most Bet Player Props for Bills–Texans TNF.

BUF vs HOU Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

1. Woody Marks Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Woody Marks enters Week 12 with 99 carries for 348 yards (3.5 YPC), averaging 34.8 rushing yards per game — but his recent trend is what drives this play. He’s hit this mark in four games, including two straight and three of his past four.

Buffalo’s run defense has completely cratered, ranking 31st in rushing defense (153 YPG) and second-worst vs RBs (121.2 YPG allowed). With Houston committed to the ground game, Marks draws one of the softest matchups he’ll see all season.

2. Tyrell Shavers Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

Tyrell Shavers has emerged as a quietly reliable deep option with 11 catches for 172 yards (17.2 per game) and has gone over this number four times, including back-to-back weeks capped by a season-best four-catch, 90-yard breakout vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Houston’s challenge? The Texans rank third against the pass (171 YPG) and sixth vs WRs (122.4 YPG allowed). Yet Shavers’ growing role and big-play ability are drawing bettors toward the Over.

3. Jayden Higgins Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Jayden Higgins has been consistently productive, posting 23 catches for 256 yards and going over this number five times, including three of his past four games, punctuated by a career-best 55 yards vs the Tennessee Titans last week.

Buffalo’s pass defense has been elite statistically — second in passing yards allowed (169.7 YPG) — but they’ve still allowed 132.9 receiving yards per game to WRs (13th-most). Higgins’ recent usage makes this a popular Over.

4. Nico Collins Over 5.5 Receptions

Nico Collins remains the Texans’ chain-moving force with 49 receptions for 642 yards, averaging 5.4 catches per game. The talented wideout has also gone over this number in four games, including three straight where he’s averaged 7.7 receptions.

This is strength-on-strength: Buffalo ranks first in opponent receptions allowed (16.8 per game) and fifth in completion percentage allowed (61.8%), but Collins is dominating target share. The chink in Buffalo’s armor may be against wide receivers, where they sit 12th, allowing 10.4 catches per game. Bettors expect volume to win out.

5. Josh Allen Under 30.5 Passing Attempts

Josh Allen has thrown 293 passes in 10 games (29.3 per game) and has gone under this prop in seven matchups, including posting exactly 30 attempts last week.

Houston’s defense is built to limit volume — second-best opponent completion rate allowed (57.6%), but a middling 15th in passing attempts allowed (31.4 per game). If the Texans control the pace, Allen projects for another under.

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TNF Bills vs Texans Most Bet Props

• 1. Woody Marks (HOU) Over 64.5 Rushing yards
• 2. Tyrell Shavers (BUF) Over 22.5 Receiving yards
• 3. Jayden Higgins (HOU) Over 29.5 Receiving yards
• 4. Nico Collins (HOU) Over 5.5 Receptions made
• 5. Josh Allen (BUF) Under 30.5 Passing attempts

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Thursday Night Football Props Market Closing Bell

With both teams fighting for positioning in a tightening AFC race, Thursday night’s matchup sets the stage for a telling Week 12 showdown. The prop market reflects clear strengths and weaknesses on each side, and bettors are leaning heavily into those trends as Bills–Texans shapes up to be one of the more intriguing primetime games of the season.

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All BetMGM data is based on tickets and straight bets