Will David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions Score 10+ TDs This NFL Season?

David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions: Will He Rush for 10+ Touchdowns in 2024?

As we head into the 2024 NFL season, fantasy football managers are debating whether Montgomery, the Lions’ new running back, can replicate his 13-touchdown performance from last season. The question on everyone’s mind is simple: Will Montgomery rush for 10 or more touchdowns this year? Let’s dive into the factors that could influence his touchdown production and whether you should be buying or selling on this prop.

The Case for Buying: A High-Scoring Offense in a Favorable Division

Montgomery finds himself in a favorable situation with the Lions, a team that has the potential to be one of the most efficient offenses in the league. With Jared Goff at quarterback and a strong offensive line, the Lions are poised to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Last year, Montgomery found the end zone 13 times on the ground, and while it’s ambitious to expect a repeat, double-digit touchdowns are certainly within reach.

One of the key factors in Montgomery’s favor is the strength—or lack thereof—of the NFC North. The division isn’t as formidable as it once was, with the Green Bay Packers in transition, the Chicago Bears still rebuilding, and the Minnesota Vikings showing signs of vulnerability. This softer schedule could lead to more red zone opportunities for the Lions, and by extension, more chances for Montgomery to score.

Additionally, while rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to play a significant role in the offense, Montgomery is likely to be the go-to option in goal-line situations. Gibbs’ skill set leans more toward being a versatile, pass-catching back, leaving the between-the-tackles work and short-yardage situations to Montgomery. This role should allow him to rack up touchdowns, even if his overall yardage total doesn’t skyrocket.

The Case for Selling: Touchdown Variability and Gibbs’ Presence

Touchdowns can be one of the most unpredictable aspects of fantasy football. While Montgomery’s 13 rushing touchdowns last year were impressive, replicating that feat is no guarantee. In fact, there are several reasons to be cautious about betting on him to hit double digits again in 2024.

Firstly, the presence of Gibbs cannot be overlooked. As a first-round draft pick, Gibbs is expected to play a major role in the Lions’ offense, particularly in high-leverage situations. While Montgomery may get the bulk of the goal-line carries, Gibbs could easily siphon off a few opportunities, especially in creative offensive packages designed to capitalize on his speed and agility.

Secondly, the Lions’ offense may lean more on the passing game this season. With weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and the return of Jameson Williams, Detroit could opt to air it out more often, particularly in the red zone. If this happens, Montgomery’s touchdown opportunities could take a hit.

Injuries are another variable to consider. While Montgomery has generally been durable, the physical toll of being a primary goal-line back can add up. Any missed games could derail his chances of reaching the 10-touchdown mark.

Final Verdict: Buy or Sell on 10+ Touchdowns?

When it comes to betting on Montgomery to rush for 10 or more touchdowns in 2024, it ultimately depends on your level of confidence in the Lions’ offense and Montgomery’s role within it.

Buy: If you believe in Detroit’s offensive efficiency and expect them to dominate in a weaker NFC North, Montgomery could be a safe bet to hit double-digit touchdowns. The opportunities should be there, and while Gibbs will have his moments, Montgomery’s role as the primary goal-line back should keep him in the scoring mix.

Sell: On the other hand, if you’re wary of Gibbs’ involvement, the variability of touchdowns, and the possibility of a more pass-heavy approach from Detroit, it might be wise to temper your expectations. Betting on touchdowns is always a bit of a gamble, and there are enough question marks surrounding Montgomery’s situation to make the under a plausible outcome.

In conclusion, while there’s a strong case for both sides, the safer play might be to buy on Montgomery just clearing the 10-touchdown mark, albeit with a lower ceiling than last season’s 13. Expect him to be a solid, if not spectacular, fantasy asset in 2024.

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