Will Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs Finish as the Top Fantasy Quarterback in 2025?

Buy or Sell: Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs Finishing 2025 as Fantasy Football’s QB1

Patrick Mahomes. Will he finish the season as the top fantasy quarterback? It’s a fair question, especially now that Mahomes looks a little different in 2025 — more mobile, more aggressive, and still every bit the centerpiece of Kansas City’s offense.

Why Mahomes Is Back in the Fantasy QB1 Conversation

This isn’t the same version of Mahomes we saw a year or two ago when fantasy managers complained about efficiency dips and uneven touchdown totals.

• Running More Than Ever: Kansas City has added designed run plays into the offense this year — something we’ve rarely seen from Andy Reid’s system. Mahomes is adding an extra 4–6 fantasy points per game just with his legs, and that’s changed the ceiling completely.

• Supporting Cast Getting Healthier: Rookie breakout Xavier Worthy and the return of Rashee Rice have opened up the deep passing game again, while Travis Kelce still looks sharp as Mahomes’s red-zone security blanket.

• Efficiency Returning: Mahomes currently sits atop the fantasy QB rankings with 148 points, just ahead of Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys, and Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s averaging over 24 fantasy points per game, mixing efficiency with volume in a way that reminds managers of his 2018–2020 peak years.

It’s not hyperbole to say Mahomes is finally looking like the fantasy cheat code again — but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to finish No. 1.

Why I’m Selling Mahomes as the Top Fantasy QB

It’s hard to “buy” anyone finishing as the outright QB1 — even Mahomes — when the field is this tight.

• Small Gap at the Top: The difference between Mahomes and QB7 (Daniel Jones of the Indianapolis Colts) is only 24 fantasy points, roughly the value of one strong two-touchdown game. That’s not dominance — that’s volatility.

• Kansas City’s Schedule & Weather: As the season shifts deeper into November and December, Arrowhead weather becomes a real factor. Cold, wind, and slower field conditions tend to suppress passing stats and drive Kansas City toward ball control.

• “Take the Field” Rule: when you ask whether one guy will finish No. 1 or the field, you take the field. There are simply too many viable candidates (Allen, Dak, Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles, even Mayfield if he stays healthy).

• Dak Prescott’s Volume Edge: Dallas has to throw the ball 40 times a game. The Cowboys’ defense has regressed, and CeeDee Lamb is still commanding elite volume. Add in a soft second-half schedule, and Prescott’s trajectory could easily push him past Mahomes down the stretch.

So while Mahomes sits atop the standings right now, it’s hardly a comfortable lead — and recent history shows how fast that can change when weather, game script, and variance hit.

Betting Angle: Mahomes as the Favorite, Prescott as the Value

At most sportsbooks, Mahomes currently sits as the odds-on favorite to finish as fantasy football’s QB1 — generally priced around +150 to +200 depending on the book.

• The Safe Play: Betting on Mahomes gives you stability. You’re backing elite talent, consistency, and one of the highest weekly floors in football.

• The Value Play: Dak Prescott offers far better value in the betting market — often priced between +500 and +600 — and he’s gaining momentum as the league leader in attempts and passing touchdowns.

• The Long Shot: Hurts, Allen, and Mayfield round out the next tier of candidates, each with strong red-zone rushing upside that could tilt the fantasy scoring race.

In short, Mahomes is the “chalk” favorite, but sharp bettors may find more upside betting on Dak or the field at longer odds.

Final Call: Sell the Lock, Buy the Legitimacy

No one’s questioning Mahomes’s greatness — the guy remains one of the safest and most productive quarterbacks in fantasy football. He’s running more, his receivers are trending up, and the Chiefs’ offense looks balanced again. But finishing as the top fantasy quarterback? That’s a tougher bet.

The margins are razor thin, and the weather, game scripts, and late-season matchups could tilt in favor of Prescott, Allen, or Hurts before it’s over.

Verdict: Sell the lock, buy the legitimacy. Mahomes will be in the top three when it’s all said and done — but if you’re betting, take the field at better odds.

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.