NHL Best Bets Today: Expert Jan. 28 Picks and Tonight’s Top Value

It’s hard to believe, but we’re speeding toward the NHL playoffs ultra-fast. The Olympic break is on the horizon, and the NHL Trade Deadline will follow shortly after, marking the stretch run that separates contenders from pretenders. Before we get to the chase for Lord Stanley’s Mug, we’re embracing all of the regular season action. 

Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges. 

Check out what bets we’re targeting on tonight’s slate!

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Best Bet: Senators (+135) Offers the Best Underdog Value

Where to Watch Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators

• Arena: Canadian Tire Centre
• Location: Ottawa, ON
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: January 28, 2026
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

COL vs. OTT Betting Odds & Team Comparison

COL vs. OTT Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Source: Kalshi Prediction Exchange

There is no stopping the Colorado Avalanche this season. The Central Division leaders are running away with the President’s Trophy, and we’re just narrowly past the halfway point of the season. But as good as they’ve been, we’ve seen their analytics erode in recent weeks. With that, we see immense value in backing the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night. 

Colorado’s success is grounded in elite analytics play—still, those underlying values are on the decline. The Avs have been outplayed in each of their last two games, generating a sub-optimal 46.1% expected goals-for rating. Conversely, they’ve out-scored those opponents 6-4, yielding an actual goals-for rating of 60.0%.

That imbalance alone points to regression, but other factors are at play. The Avalanche have been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in four of six, a substantive decrease in production that corresponds with an increase in scoring. Inevitably, those snow walls will collapse in on Colorado. 

At the same time, Ottawa is playing the best hockey of its season. The Sens have outplayed their opponents in eight of ten, a stretch that includes only four wins. They are beginning to maximize production in the attacking zone, which, as we saw in their seven-goal performance last time out, is translating into on-ice success.

This is the lowest moneyline price we’ve seen on the Avs since a January 6 road game against the Lightning. That indicates the betting market’s confidence in the Sens to get things done at home. We’re hopping on the Ottawa train, backing them to upend the Avalanche at the Canadian Tire Centre. 

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Best Bet: 60-Minute Tie +300 Offers the Best Plus Money Value

Where to Watch New York Rangers vs New York Islanders

• Arena: UBS Arena
• Location: Belmont Park, NY
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: January 28, 2026
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

NYR vs NYI Betting Odds & Market Value

NYR vs NYI Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Source: Kalshi Prediction Exchange

For all the heated rivalries the NHL has to offer, the New York Rangers versus the New York Islanders doesn’t get enough credit. These intra-state rivals take to the ice at UBS Arena for the latest installment, in what’s sure to be another jaw- and glove-dropping affair.

Lately, the Rangers have been mired in one of their worst slumps in recent memory. The Broadway Blueshirts have dropped eight of their last 10, giving up four or more goals in all but three of those contests. As bad as they’ve been, we’ve seen more determined efforts in their latest outings. The Rangers outplayed the Sharks at home, generating a 56.0% expected goals-for rating but still losing 3-1. Subsequently, they came out firing against the Bruins, hanging on for a hard-fought overtime victory in Bean Town. A similar effort is expected on Long Island. 

Further, there’s not much the Islanders can do to slow down their rivals. New York has been outplayed in four straight, accumulating a lackluster 46.0% expected goals-for rating over that stretch. Despite getting dominated in all four of those contests, the Islanders have won three of four, on the strength of back-to-back shutouts. 

The Isles are skating on thin ice, and the ice will break as soon as goaltending collapses. We’re not convinced there will be an outright implosion on home ice, but we do think the Rangers muster at least a point out of tonight’s effort.

Best Bet: Blue Jackets (-135) Offers the Best Moneyline Edge

Where to Watch Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets

• Stadium: Nationwide Arena
• Location: Columbus, OH
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: January 28, 2026
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

PHI vs. CBJ Betting Odds & Market Value

PHI vs. CBJ Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Source: Kalshi Prediction Exchange

There’s not enough space in the playoffs for both the Philadelphia Flyers and the Columbus Blue Jackets. As it stands, both teams are outside the playoff picture and desperately need the two points to try to stay in contention. The Blue Jackets enter as short favorites, and based on our analysis, they are the side worth backing tonight.

It’s hard to believe, but the Columbus Blue Jackets have re-emerged as an offensive juggernaut. They rank top 10 in scoring and high-danger chances per game, producing 23.4 and 9.8 opportunities, respectively. Still, the Jackets have fallen short of those benchmarks with their latest efforts. Over its last three, Columbus has mustered just 6.0 high-danger chances and 16.0 scoring opportunities per game. 

Thankfully, the Jackets will have the opportunity to improve on those metrics against a faltering Philadelphia side. The Flyers have given up 10 or more quality chances in three of their last six, which has precipitated a sharp increase in goals allowed. Across that sample, opponents have registered 25 goals, with 15 of those coming at five-on-five. 

The Flyers are a liability in their own end, playing into the Blue Jackets’ renaissance as an offensive force. That will be Philadelphia’s demise, as the Jackets walk away victorious. 

NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for January 28, 2026

• Senators +135
• NYR-NYI 60-Minute Tie +300
• Blue Jackets +135

We’ve got a three-game NHL schedule tonight, with plays in every game. We’re taking the Senators and Blue Jackets straight up on the moneyline, backing the Rangers and Islanders to go to overtime.

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