NHL First Round: Bold Picks for Upsets That Could Shake the Playoffs

Nashville Predators

First-Round Series Price: +125 vs. Vancouver Canucks
Stanley Cup Odds: +3700

From worst to first, the Vancouver Canucks underwent a dramatic turnaround in 2023-24. But the fun runs out in the playoffs, as they face a sincere challenge from the Nashville Predators. 

The Predators powered themselves into a wild card spot on the strength of a dominant second half. Following a disheartening 9-2 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Stars in February, Nashville won 20 of its final 28 games to secure a playoff spot. 

Further, the Preds' systems are tailor-made for postseason success. An emphasis on defensive structure complements depth scoring, making them a tough out against any team in the playoffs, especially one as inexperienced as the Canucks. 

Based on the current betting prices, we're planting our flag in the Predators, pulling off one of the most shocking upsets of the first round, and eliminating the Canucks. 

Toronto Maple Leafs

First-Round Series Price: +100 vs. Boston Bruins
Stanley Cup Odds: +1400

The reputation of being one of the worst underperforming teams in the playoffs is starting to wear off for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Last year, Auston Matthews and Co. won the franchise's first playoff series in nearly 20 years when they knocked off the Tampa Bay Lightning in the opening round. After another year of development and preparation, they are poised to pull off an upset against the Boston Bruins again. 

Toronto enters its first-round matchup against the Bruins as +105 underdogs. Based on our analysis, that bet is worth making. The Maple Leafs have superior analytics to their Atlantic Division counterparts, putting together a 51.4% expected goals-for rating compared to the Bruins' benchmark of 50.0%. Moreover, that gap has widened over the latter part of the campaign, with Toronto improving to 54.7% over the past month and Boston falling to 45.8%.

Considering their underwhelming track record, it's a challenging position to take, but the Maple Leafs will exorcise those playoff demons against the Bruins. 

Tampa Bay Lightning

First-Round Series Price: +152 vs. Florida Panthers
Stanley Cup Odds: +2200

No team enters this year's postseason on more solid footing than the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts are on an absurd 12-4-2 run over the past month, solidifying their position as a postseason contender. The Florida Panthers may have exhausted their puck luck in last year's edition, leaving them ripe for an upset against the Lightning. 

Florida's run to the Stanley Cup Final last year was grounded in unsustainable play. Their 46.4% expected goals-for rating was the second-worst mark in the Eastern Conference, forcing an increased reliance on Sergei Bobrovsky. As we saw against the Vegas Golden Knights, as soon as Bobrovsky returned to earth, so did the Panthers. 

Timing is everything, and the Lightning have reserved their best efforts for the most crucial time of year. With the Panthers' anticipated regression, Tampa Bay is poised to make an unsuspecting run to the second round.

Winnipeg Jets

First-Round Series Price: +115 vs. Colorado Avalanche
Stanley Cup Odds: +1500

Every year, a hot goalie takes a team further in the postseason than they deserve. The Winnipeg Jets have been the living embodiment of that in the regular season for the past few years. But after a dominant run to end the campaign, Winnipeg will carry the momentum of an eight-game winning streak into the playoffs. That should help them upend the Colorado Avalanche as +115 underdogs in the Central Division showdown. 

As usual, Connor Hellebuyck has been the foundation of the Jets' success. The Vezina Trophy frontrunner led the league in goals saved above average, falling just a few saves shy of setting a new career-high in save percentage. Surely, Winnipeg will need Hellebuyck at his best as they slow down the mighty Avalanche. 

But we also can't discount Colorado's terrible postseason track record. The Avs have made it past the second round just once since 2002, highlighting their constant underachieving in the playoffs. 

We're betting the Jets perpetuate that misery, marking them as one of our preferred underdogs. 

Nashville Predators

First-Round Series Price: +125 vs. Vancouver Canucks
Stanley Cup Odds: +3700

From worst to first, the Vancouver Canucks underwent a dramatic turnaround in 2023-24. But the fun runs out in the playoffs, as they face a sincere challenge from the Nashville Predators. 

The Predators powered themselves into a wild card spot on the strength of a dominant second half. Following a disheartening 9-2 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Stars in February, Nashville won 20 of its final 28 games to secure a playoff spot. 

Further, the Preds' systems are tailor-made for postseason success. An emphasis on defensive structure complements depth scoring, making them a tough out against any team in the playoffs, especially one as inexperienced as the Canucks. 

Based on the current betting prices, we're planting our flag in the Predators, pulling off one of the most shocking upsets of the first round, and eliminating the Canucks.