NHL · 1 year ago

NHL Playoffs: Predicting Every Outcome in Eastern Conference

Grant White

Host · Writer

Eastern Conference Final - Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Coincidentally, the last time the Maple Leafs made a run to the third round, they also faced the Carolina Hurricanes. But exactly like last time, we expect them to meet their demise against the Hurricanes.

Carolina has a substantial analytics advantage. The Hurricanes' 56.9% expected goals-for rating is nearly 6.0% higher than the Leafs' benchmark of 51.3%. Further, they are less reliant on their top line, getting scoring from every part of their roster.

The poetic ending that Frederik Andersen deserves is getting to eliminate his former squad from postseason contention. In doing so, he sets the Hurricanes to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2006.
NHL: New York Rangers at Washington Capitals
It took until the final few days of the season, but the Washington Capitals eventually clinched the final playoff berth in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately for them, it was only to become a first-round sacrifice at the hands of the President Trophy-winning New York Rangers.

The Rangers have extracted maximum value from every part of their roster. Artemi Panarin leads a dangerous forward corps, Adam Fox has cemented himself as the leader on the blue line, and Igor Shesterkin stabilizes the blue paint.

Enjoy the four games, Washington; this one will be over before we know it.
First Round - Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders
The Carolina Hurricanes may have missed out on securing the top spot in the Eastern Conference, but it wasn't due to a lack of effort. The Canes had the most robust analytics profile of any team in the conference, which should help them escape their opening-round matchup versus the New York Islanders.

Up until the final day of the season, Carolina was leading the NHL in expected goals-for-percentage. Although they also came up short in that distinction, the Hurricanes should have no problem blowing past the Islanders. The Metropolitan Division runner-ups have superior goaltending and more balanced production, giving them the edge in Round 1.

An entire season of Patrick Roy might help the Islanders secure home-ice advantage next year, but that will be their undoing versus the Canes.
First Round - Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Gary Bettman got precisely what he wanted when he implemented this abomination of a playoff format. The regional rivalries are reflected in both Atlantic Division series, starting with the Sunshine State battle between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning.

Tampa Bay went on a 12-4-2 run to end the campaign, fending off several challengers for its wild card spot. Now, the Bolts are tasked with taking down the defending Eastern Conference Champions in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

As we've seen all season, the Panthers remain one of the fiercest squads in the NHL. Try as they may, the Lightning don't possess the scoring or systems to upset their in-state rivals this year.
First Round - Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Like Bill Murray announcing it's Groundhog Day, Toronto Maple Leafs fans have begrudgingly accepted their fate of having to get past one of the top teams in the NHL in the first round of every postseason. This year, the Leafs must knock off the perennial powerhouse Boston Bruins.

Of course, we all remember how this series played out the last time these teams met, but this has been a more resilient campaign from the Leafs this season.

More importantly, Toronto has a pronounced analytics advantage over its Original Six rivals. The Maple Leafs have a superior expected goals-for rating, more robust five-on-five scoring, and a more balanced attack than the Bruins.

The Leafs may be underdogs, but with home-ice advantage and a better profile, they are worth the investment to advance.
Second Round - New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes
This is the grudge match the NHL deserves in the second round. The Rangers and Hurricanes fought till the bitter end for the President's Trophy. Although the Rangers won the more symbolic victory, Carolina gets the more prestigious win when these teams meet in Round 2.

As good as the Rangers have been, they can't compete with the Canes' analytics. Carolina plays with better structure than their intra-divisional rivals, getting production from top to bottom out of its lineup. Further, the Hurricanes have a better system and more sustainable metrics, supporting that they are the better team.

Inevitably, the Rangers will open as series favorites but take a firm stance on the Canes at plus-money. They should escape this series with relative ease.
Second Round - Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Repeating as Eastern Conference champions is no easy feat. And it's an endeavor the Panthers will come up short of as they clash with the Maple Leafs in the second round.

The Panthers advanced convincingly when these teams met in the second round of last year's playoffs. Still, they were outplayed in four of the five contests, with Sergei Bobrovsky stealing the series for Florida. The Russian netminder stopped 93.9% of shots faced, not allowing more than two goals in any contest.

Toronto still has something to prove, and a first-round upset over the Bruins doesn't scratch that itch. Look for the Leafs to make their first Eastern Conference Final in over 20 years.
Eastern Conference Final - Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Coincidentally, the last time the Maple Leafs made a run to the third round, they also faced the Carolina Hurricanes. But exactly like last time, we expect them to meet their demise against the Hurricanes.

Carolina has a substantial analytics advantage. The Hurricanes' 56.9% expected goals-for rating is nearly 6.0% higher than the Leafs' benchmark of 51.3%. Further, they are less reliant on their top line, getting scoring from every part of their roster.

The poetic ending that Frederik Andersen deserves is getting to eliminate his former squad from postseason contention. In doing so, he sets the Hurricanes to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2006.
NHL: New York Rangers at Washington Capitals
It took until the final few days of the season, but the Washington Capitals eventually clinched the final playoff berth in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately for them, it was only to become a first-round sacrifice at the hands of the President Trophy-winning New York Rangers.

The Rangers have extracted maximum value from every part of their roster. Artemi Panarin leads a dangerous forward corps, Adam Fox has cemented himself as the leader on the blue line, and Igor Shesterkin stabilizes the blue paint.

Enjoy the four games, Washington; this one will be over before we know it.

NHL Playoffs: Predicting Every Outcome in Eastern Conference

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