Oilers on Verge of Collapse Toward End of the Regular Season
Grant White
Host · Writer
We all know this by now: the NHL season is a grind. Eighty-two games from October to April leaves teams battered and bruised by the end of the season.
No team is immune from the ups and downs of the tumultuous campaign. Winning streaks are offset by periods of decreased productivity, creating a peaks and valleys landscape as franchises fight for one of the 16 playoff berths.
The Edmonton Oilers’ path throughout the 2023-24 season exemplifies those trials and tribulations. No team has been on a more exaggerated ride than the Oilers, and unfortunately for them, they could be spiraling downward at the worst time of year.
Historically Bad Start
Edmonton’s start to the season was one of the worst on record. Losers of ten of their first 12, the Oilers quickly found themselves at the bottom of the Pacific Division standings. That ranking was juxtaposed with their position on the Stanley Cup futures board, which saw the Oilers priced as one of the preferred options to hoist hockey’s Holy Grail.
Upward Climb to Winning Streak
Of course, we know that the Oilers weren’t destined for collapse. No, a new head coach and a few closed-door meetings later, and Edmonton has re-asserted itself as the threat everyone thought it would be.
Punctuated by a 16-game winning streak, the Oilers marched back up to second in the Pacific Division, validating their odds as +800 frontrunners to win the Stanley Cup.
Read up on a +476 NHL SGP for tonight.
Unsustainable Metrics
However, a more concerning trend has emerged from the Oilers’ most recent performances. You wouldn’t know it from a superficial glance at outcomes or standings, but Edmonton is struggling. This weekend’s humbling defeats to the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators could be a sign of things to come.
The Oilers posted a downtrodden 46.9% expected goals-for rating against the Toronto Maple Leafs, with an improved effort against the lowly Ottawa Senators on Sunday. Still, that was the fifth time in seven games that Edmonton had been outplayed.
Despite their analytics demise, the Oilers kept their heads above water. Edmonton is 4-2-1 over the seven-game sample, maintaining second place in the Pacific Division standings. In doing so, they’ve created a wedge between actual and expected metrics, putting the Oilers on the verge of collapse.
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Familiar Feelings
Their current predicament bears an uncanny resemblance to their early-season struggles. In the early part of the season, the Oilers maintained production metrics but could not translate that to output.
That’s akin to what we’re seeing over their recent sample. Edmonton has been held to two or fewer goals at five-on-five in six of its past nine, highlighting the desperate need for improved scoring in crunch time.
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Bad Timing
The more concerning trend is the timing of their anticipated collapse. The Oilers are still maintaining their divisional title aspirations, but a losing streak could slide them into a more precarious position.
Heading into the week, the Oilers sit ten points back of the Vancouver Canucks for top spot in the Pacific Division; however, with three games in hand and one game left against the Canucks, the climb doesn’t appear as daunting as it seems.
At the same time, Edmonton is only three points clear of the Los Angeles Kings, putting them perilously close to losing home-ice advantage in the opening round.
The next few weeks will determine the Oilers’ path through the postseason. And if they falter as expected, losing home-ice advantage in the opening round and another unceremonious playoff exit could be on the horizon.
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Proceed With Caution
Timing is everything, and once again, the Oilers clocks are off.
Edmonton is on the brink of another dry spell, overachieving relative to its underlying metrics and putting the team on an unavoidable path of regression.
Combined with the emotional toll of falling to third in the division, it could be too much for the Oilers to overcome.
| Oilers 2024 Futures | Odds at FanDuel |
| Stanley Cup Winner | +800 (4th shortest) |
| WCF Winner | +420 (2nd shortest) |
| Pacific Division Winner | +900 (2nd shortest) |
| Win 0 Playoff Rounds | -106 |
| Win 1+ Playoff Rounds | -138 |
| Win 2+ Playoff Rounds | +215 |
So now is not the time to back the Oilers in the Stanley Cup futures market. Their price is likely on the decline, as their perceived value will take a hit on a losing streak ahead of the playoffs. If they avoid the collapse and walk the unsustainable path a little longer, there are more cost-effective betting strategies to employ anyway.
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