Top 5 Candidates to Win This Year’s Hart Trophy as NHL MVP

Connor Hellebuyck

Hart Trophy Odds: +8000

The price gap widens at Connor Hellebuyck, but it's not a move that we agree with. No player means more to his team than Hellebuyck. The Winnipeg Jets' netminder is arguably the most deserving player for the award, and voters should take notice. 

Hellebuyck leads all goalies in nearly every measurable category. His 25.1 goals saved above average, 2.40 adjusted goals against average, and 10.8 goalie point shares are all league bests, as are his more traditional stats, 92.1% save percentage, and 2.33 GAA. More simply, the Jets' success depends on Hellebuyck, and we adjudge him as the player most valuable to his team.

It might be worth taking a flier on Hellebuyck at this exorbitant price. The Jets will continue to ride their primary netminder to the end of the regular season, inflating his metrics into a Hart-worthy stratosphere. 

Connor McDavid

Hart Trophy Odds: +440

The reigning MVP and NHL poster boy, Connor McDavid, has moved into second in the Hart Trophy race over the past few weeks. However, that positional upgrade is of little value when we consider his price continues to drop. 

McDavid is starting to run cold at the worst time of year. The four-time Ted Lindsay award-winner has been held scoreless in two of his past four outings, a distinction that hasn't happened since the season's first month. But that's the only factor working against him. 

The Edmonton Oilers captain leads the NHL in even-strength scoring, averaging 1.1 points per game. That puts him ahead of MacKinnon (1.08) and makes him one of only three players in the league to average more than a point per game. 

McDavid has a finite amount of time to catch MacKinnon, albeit with a few games in hand. Unless he turns things around, he could be relegated to finishing second in voting for the second time in his career. 

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Nikita Kucherov

Hart Trophy Odds: +500

Nikita Kucherov's stock continues to plummet. Over the past few months, he's gone from the betting favorite to the third-best odds, getting surpassed by MacKinnon and McDavid. The free fall might not yet end, as Kucherov is getting surpassed in virtually every category. 

If not for a five-point outburst against the New York Rangers, Kucherov's point total would have been limited to six points over his previous seven. Moreover, we're not convinced that was the outing needed to swing Kucherov's fortunes. The Russian forward has been on the ice for 141 goals across all strengths, putting him substantially ahead of his expected total of 109.3. That means his cooling-off period could extend until the end of the season. 

His inflated shooting percentage is another layer that adds to Kucherov's potential regression. Currently operating at a 15.4% clip, he's ahead of his career average of 14.6%. As those metrics balance out in the season's final few weeks, Kucherov's MVP candidacy starts to wane. 

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Auston Matthews

Hart Trophy Odds: +1400

Arguably the best value on the Hart Trophy futures board, Auston Matthews is poised to accomplish something that hasn't been done in over 30 years. Barring setbacks, Matthews could become just the ninth player in NHL history to eclipse 70 goals. 

With 55 goals through 65 games played, Matthews is on pace to finish the season with 69 goals. But his Hart Trophy resume is bolstered by his solid analytics. Twenty-nine of Matthews' 55 goals have come at five-on-five, and 13 of his 27 assists have been primary feeds under the same circumstances. Still, we could see him climb even higher over the season's final few weeks. 

Nine of Toronto's next 14 games come against non-playoff teams, setting Matthews up for a potential big move up the futures board. In today's age of analytics, Matthews should get credit for what he brings to the ice on a nightly basis.

Connor Hellebuyck

Hart Trophy Odds: +8000

The price gap widens at Connor Hellebuyck, but it's not a move that we agree with. No player means more to his team than Hellebuyck. The Winnipeg Jets' netminder is arguably the most deserving player for the award, and voters should take notice. 

Hellebuyck leads all goalies in nearly every measurable category. His 25.1 goals saved above average, 2.40 adjusted goals against average, and 10.8 goalie point shares are all league bests, as are his more traditional stats, 92.1% save percentage, and 2.33 GAA. More simply, the Jets' success depends on Hellebuyck, and we adjudge him as the player most valuable to his team.

It might be worth taking a flier on Hellebuyck at this exorbitant price. The Jets will continue to ride their primary netminder to the end of the regular season, inflating his metrics into a Hart-worthy stratosphere.