PSG vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

The UEFA Champions League league phase reaches its fever pitch as Newcastle United journeys to the City of Light for a heavyweight clash with Paris Saint-Germain. With the new format reaching its final matchday, the math is simple yet brutal: both sides sit on 13 points, hovering right on the edge of the top-eight cutoff for automatic Round of 16 qualification.

Luis Enrique’s PSG is looking to shake off a Jekyll-and-Hyde European campaign that recently saw them stunned by Sporting CP. Meanwhile, the Magpies arrive in Paris having found their scoring boots in Europe, but they face a daunting task at the Parc des Princes—a stadium where Premier League visitors have historically struggled to keep a clean sheet.

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Where to Watch PSG vs Newcastle

Arena: Parc des Princes
Location: Paris, France
Where to Watch: Paramount+; ViX
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

PSG vs Newcastle Betting Odds

Spread: PSG -1.5 (+120) | NEW +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline (3-way): PSG -190 | NEW +450 | Draw +360
Total: Over 3.5 (+116) | Under 3.5 (-156)

PSG vs Newcastle Kalshi Odds

Chance: PSG 62.4% | NEW 18.2% | Tie 19.4%
Spread: PSG wins by over 1.5 goals: Yes (45¢) | No (55¢)
Total: Over 3.5 goals scored: Yes (41¢) | No (59¢)

Match Breakdown: The Battle for the Top 8

Paris Saint-Germain enters the final matchday in sixth place with 13 points, knowing that a victory almost certainly secures their passage to the Round of 16. Despite their pedigree, the Parisians have been defensively fragile, conceding in nearly every European home game this season. However, their offensive depth remains frightening; expect Ousmane Dembélé to be the primary engine, as he leads the team in goal involvements in 2026.

The Newcastle Resilience: Eddie Howe has transformed Newcastle into a “European thorn." While they sit in seventh place, tied with PSG on points, their second-half fatigue has been a recurring theme. The Magpies have conceded 25 goals after the break across all competitions this season. To escape Paris with points, they must survive the inevitable PSG surge in the final 30 minutes.

Historical Context: While Newcastle famously thrashed PSG 4-1 back in 2023, the return leg in Paris ended in a contentious 1-1 draw. At the Parc des Princes, PSG hasn’t lost to English opposition in their last four tries, averaging over 2.5 goals per game in those contests.

The Injury Report: Midfield Concerns for Both Sides

The medical tents are busy in both camps, which could turn this into a tactical chess game for the managers.

PSG Absences: The Parisians are missing Matvey Safonov (GK) and Lee Kang-In, but the real blow is the absence of Joao Neves in the engine room. Reports suggest Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes have passed late fitness tests, providing a massive boost to their wing-back play.
Newcastle Blows: The Magpies are traveling thin. Fabian Schär and Emil Krafth are out, leaving the defense vulnerable. Even more concerning are the “Questionable" tags on Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton. If that Brazilian duo can’t anchor the midfield, it could be a long night for the Geordie faithful.

Suspension Watch: Newcastle’s Sandro Tonali and PSG’s Lucas Beraldo are both one yellow card away from a one-match ban heading into the knockout rounds.

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