TST Best Bets: July 12, 2026

A week after the Indiana Fever handed the Las Vegas Aces a 16-point defeat on their home floor, these teams meet again under much different circumstances. 

Caitlin Clark and A’ja Wilson both missed last Sunday’s matchup, leaving Kelsey Mitchell to lead Indiana to victory with a 27-point performance. 

With both superstars back in the lineup, the Fever have another opportunity to make a statement against the team with the best record in the WNBA.

The Aces enter Sunday with plenty of momentum, having followed an eight-point victory over Portland with a 106-58 demolition of Phoenix on Saturday in the third-biggest blowout in league history.

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First Pick: Las Vegas Aces -4.5 over Indiana Fever

Rundown: While both teams will get their biggest stars back for this rematch, Wilson’s return should have a much greater impact on the Aces.

Las Vegas is just 1-3 without Wilson this season, with its defensive rating falling from 105.3 when she plays to 109.8 when she is out. Indiana, meanwhile, is a surprising 4-0 without Clark compared to 9-9 with her in the lineup.

The Fever have also struggled to beat quality opponents on the road. They are 5-5 away from home, with the 10-10 Washington Mystics representing their best road victory outside of last week’s win over a Wilson-less Aces team.

With Las Vegas playing its best basketball of the season, expect Wilson and company to take control of the rematch and win by enough to cover the spread.

Second Pick: Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever – Over 180.5

Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Jul 5, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell (0) drives against Las Vegas Aces forward Brianna Turner (21) in the fourth quarter of their game at T-Mobile Arena.

Rundown: While Wilson’s return should provide a major boost to the Aces’ defense, this matchup still projects as a shootout.

Indiana and Las Vegas rank first and second in offensive rating this season, and each offense is equipped to exploit the opposing defense’s biggest weakness. The Aces feature the league’s most dominant interior scorer in Wilson, who leads the WNBA with 25.8 points per game and should thrive against an Indiana defense that has struggled to protect the paint.

For the Fever, they are armed with an array of shooters, and rank fifth in both three-point percentage and attempts this season. 

While the Aces are an above average defense this season, the three-point shot has been their biggest weakness, as they rank 12th in opponent made threes per game and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.