Home Derby Props: Will the Over 276.5 Hit?

Last season saw 291 homers crushed in the MLB Home Run Derby but with a little twist – an extra 13 home runs in a thrilling swing-off between Albert Pujols and Kyle Schwarber in the first round.

Without the swing-off spectacle, the count drops to 278, a fraction over this year’s total home run line, set at 276.5. Betting the over might seem an easy choice, given last year’s performance. However, a deep dive into the numbers uncovers some intriguing patterns worth considering.

For example, last year’s first round. The runoffs are quite the spectacle; Pujols outgunned Schwarber 20-19, Juan Soto bested Jose Ramirez 18-17, Julio Rodriguez thrashed Corey Seager 32-24, and Pete Alonso narrowly edged past Ronald Acuna Jr.  20-19. The rule is simple, it doesn’t matter how many home runs you beat your opponent by, just that you beat them. 

SportsGrid’s Best Daily MLB Prop Picks

To hit the over in total home runs, we need a big hitter leading the pack, setting a high bar that forces subsequent hitters to keep the home runs coming. That’s where the money is made in the first round, especially since fatigue tends to set in as the competition progresses.

So, considering this year’s first hitters – the exciting duo of Adley Rutschman and Randy Arozarena, plus the promising combination of Julio Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – going for the over 276.5 total home runs might not be a bad call.

Like in football, where having the ball first can set the game’s pace, in baseball, you want the first hitter in each matchup to have big totals so that the other hitter has to respond with big numbers or risk getting eliminated. This could be a game-changer for the betting odds, and if the first sluggers in these pairs deliver, it’s a potential jackpot for those backing the over. 

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid and our daily MLB game picks.