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MLB · 3 weeks ago

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

Sportsgrid-Staff

Mets @ Nationals – First Pitch: 7:05 p.m.

Expected Forecast: Overcast Clouds, 73°
 

As we shift our gaze toward the upcoming face-off between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals, we are faced with some compelling betting scenarios. The Mets, who are in dire need of a successful series, are road favorites at better than -138 with a total at nine.

The Mets are putting Tyler McGill on the mound, a decision that has historically led to less-than-ideal outcomes. Over the past month, McGill’s statistics have been troubling, with an xFIP close to seven, a strikeout rate (K-rate) of 15%, and a walk rate over 10%.

However, McGill has shown some success against left-handed batters with a weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) of .310 and an isolated power (ISO) number of .078. Against right-handed batters, though, he struggles with a wOBA of .420 and an ISO of .238.

Looking at the Nationals’ lineup, we examine ISO power numbers to determine if they can deliver on doubles, triples, home runs, and drive in runs. Remarkably, all nine anticipated batters have poor ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching in 2023.

The Nationals are expected to put Mackenzie Gore on the mound. His stats are impressive with an xFIP of 2.93 and a K-rate of 32%. As a left-handed pitcher, Gore has been incredibly effective against right-handed batters, with a wOBA of .275 and an ISO of .118.

However, Gore’s record against left-handed batters is less impressive. They have managed to secure a wOBA of .545 against him, but the Mets’ lineup for the night includes only two lefties, which might be an advantage for Gore.

Given the lackluster lineup for the Nationals and the struggles of the Mets’ pitcher, one might be tempted to lean toward the over. However, the conditions seem unfavorable for hitters on both sides.

In conclusion, the total might be a touch too high considering the current circumstances. Both teams have their unique struggles, which makes this matchup particularly interesting from a betting perspective.

 

Spread, Total, Moneyline, and Odds:

  Spread Total Moneyline  
 Mets -1.5  +118  O 9  -101  -138  Open
+128  -104  -126  Current
 Nationals +1.5   -140  U 9  -119  +117  Open
 -150   -116  +106  Current

Projected Lineups:

Mets

Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill: 3-2, 4.33 ERA, 6.88 K/9

1. CF  Brandon Nimmo   .312, 3 HR, 15 RBI
2. RF  Starling Marte   .217, 1 HR, 8 RBI
3. SS  Francisco Lindor   .224, 6 HR, 27 RBI
4. 1B  Pete Alonso   .234, 13 HR, 31 RBI
5. LF  Tommy Pham   .220, 3 HR, 8 RBI
6. 2B  Jeff McNeil   .269, 2 HR, 12 RBI
7. DH  Mark Canha   .217, 3 HR, 10 RBI
8. 3B  Eduardo Escobar   .159, 3 HR, 9 RBI
9. C  Francisco Alvarez   .246, 3 HR, 6 RBI

 

Nationals

Starting Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore: 3-2, 3.65 ERA, 11.68 K/9

1. CF  Alex Call   .230, 3 HR, 16 RBI
2. 2B  Luis García   .264, 3 HR, 16 RBI
3. C  Keibert Ruiz   .246, 3 HR, 12 RBI
4. DH  Joey Meneses   .288, 2 HR, 16 RBI
5. 3B  Jeimer Candelario   .216, 4 HR, 14 RBI
6. 1B  Dominic Smith   .270, 1 HR, 8 RBI
7. RF  Lane Thomas   .281, 4 HR, 18 RBI
8. LF  Stone Garrett   .288, 1 HR, 7 RBI
9. SS  CJ Abrams   .241, 2 HR, 17 RBI

Betting Insights:

Mets

  • The New York Mets are 1-4 (.200) on the road as a favorite in their last five games in 2023
  • The over hit in 2 of the New York Mets last 5 games on the road in 2023

Nationals

  • The Washington Nationals are 4-1 (.800) at home as an underdog in their last five games in 2023
  • The over hit in 1 of the Washington Nationals last 5 games at home in 2023

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