As we shift our gaze toward the upcoming face-off between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals, we are faced with some compelling betting scenarios. The Mets, who are in dire need of a successful series, are road favorites at better than -138 with a total at nine.

The Mets are putting Tyler McGill on the mound, a decision that has historically led to less-than-ideal outcomes. Over the past month, McGill’s statistics have been troubling, with an xFIP close to seven, a strikeout rate (K-rate) of 15%, and a walk rate over 10%.

However, McGill has shown some success against left-handed batters with a weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) of .310 and an isolated power (ISO) number of .078. Against right-handed batters, though, he struggles with a wOBA of .420 and an ISO of .238.

Looking at the Nationals’ lineup, we examine ISO power numbers to determine if they can deliver on doubles, triples, home runs, and drive in runs. Remarkably, all nine anticipated batters have poor ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching in 2023.

The Nationals are expected to put Mackenzie Gore on the mound. His stats are impressive with an xFIP of 2.93 and a K-rate of 32%. As a left-handed pitcher, Gore has been incredibly effective against right-handed batters, with a wOBA of .275 and an ISO of .118.

However, Gore’s record against left-handed batters is less impressive. They have managed to secure a wOBA of .545 against him, but the Mets’ lineup for the night includes only two lefties, which might be an advantage for Gore.

Given the lackluster lineup for the Nationals and the struggles of the Mets’ pitcher, one might be tempted to lean toward the over. However, the conditions seem unfavorable for hitters on both sides.

In conclusion, the total might be a touch too high considering the current circumstances. Both teams have their unique struggles, which makes this matchup particularly interesting from a betting perspective.