The St. Louis Cardinals are set to meet the Cincinnati Reds in the third go-around of a four-game set. Left-hander Steven Matz takes the mound for the Cardinals, while right-hander Ben Lively counters for the Reds. The odds favor the Cardinals as a -157 favorite. The surprise of the day is the run total, set at a staggering 10.5, comparable to a typical Coors Field line.

Matz, while possessing considerable talent, has experienced rough outings in recent times, amplifying the uncertainties for St. Louis. The Reds, who had a decent offensive outing in the previous game scoring five runs, are primed to take advantage of Matz’s struggles. While avoiding the potentially volatile total, betting enthusiasts might consider the Reds on the moneyline or run line to capitalize early, particularly in a first five-inning situation.

The Cards’ batting lineup never really poses a question. The focus, however, is on their pitching. Lively, on the other hand, boasts commendable numbers over the past 30 days. A splendid 3.46 xFIP, a strikeout rate of 25%, and excellent control that restricts walks. His splits present an even more interesting perspective. Against left-handers, he’s been almost invincible with a .130 wOBA and an ISO of zero. Right-handers haven’t fared much better, with a .249 wOBA and a .150 ISO.

As for Matz, he’s had a tough time, especially against right-handed batters, who have a .362 wOBA against him. Given that the Reds’ estimated lineup for today features all right-handed batters, we could be in for an offensive showing. But with the total set at 11, it’ll take a scoring fest to hit the over.

Adding to the Cardinals’ woes is the absence of Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, two key bullpen arms who’ve pitched in the last two games. This leaves the Cardinals’ bullpen thinner than they’d prefer.

While we expect runs to be scored, hitting the over might be a tall order. This game will likely hinge on how well Matz can combat the right-heavy Reds lineup and whether the Cardinals’ batting order can continue their impressive form.