The Washington Nationals are set to face the Miami Marlins in what promises to be a captivating game. With Josiah Gray on the mound for the Nationals and Jesus Luzardo pitching for the Marlins, the home team enters as the favorites at a -169 price. The total for this match is set at 7.5, a noticeably lower figure compared to recent matches.

The Nationals and the Marlins had contrasting starts to the season, with the former struggling to find wins and the latter starting strongly. Interestingly, the Marlins have an impressive 12-1 record in one-run games this year. However, the script appears to have flipped in May, with Florida finding it difficult to secure wins and Washington playing solid baseball.

Gray, the Nationals’ ace, is up against Luzardo in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Gray’s xFIP over the past 30 days is a bit high at 4.99, but his splits are impressive, holding both lefties and righties to low weighted on-base percentages. With LoanDepot Park being a pitcher-friendly ballpark and Miami’s lineup struggling against right-handed pitching over the past month, the Nationals might have an edge.

On the other hand, Luzardo has an elevated xFIP of 5.32. He’s done a good job against left-handed batters, but right-handers have posed more of a challenge. Given these statistics, Washington, surprisingly, might be the better bet in this matchup.

The Nationals’ performance this season has defied pre-season expectations, and they are currently hovering close to .500. With Gray showing promising signs, the Nationals could be a smart bet for this game despite being the road team.