MLB · 1 year ago

5 MLB Bets You Need to Make for After the 2024 All-Star Game

Grant White

Host · Writer

San Diego Padres to Win the NL West+2300
Purveyors of value may have already dipped their toes in the NL West waters, but bettors should be ready to make a big splash. The San Diego Padres will disrupt the Los Angeles Dodgers' path to a third straight division crown.

We see that the Dodgers aren't as invincible as we thought at the start of the season. Injuries have decimated their starting rotation, and when the big three fall off at the top of the lineup, so does the rest of the order.

Conversely, the Padres are getting the most out of their starting pitching, have a sturdy bullpen, and can hang with the best of them offensively, even without Fernando Tatis Jr.

Losers of seven of their past ten, the Dodgers are expected to falter further after the All-Star break. Late-season surges have become synonymous with San Diego, only this time, they have less ground to make up. We're putting our eggs in the Padres' basket in the NL West, our preferred value play in the second half of the MLB season.
Aaron Judge to Win AL MVP -380
Sometimes, it's hard to conceptualize how exceptional Aaron Judge really is, and the current betting price for him to win this year's AL MVP is a pristine example. The New York Yankees slugger is far and away the best player in the American League and is worth the investment to win the second MVP award of his career.

Granted, Judge has been mired in a bit of a slump recently. But his underperforming is better than most players can deliver at their peak. Over the past few weeks, Judge has a diminished .975 OPS, with 14 strikeouts and just six extra-base hits. Still, his season-long benchmark of 1.114 is over 100 points clear of the next closest player, teammate Juan Soto.

That's without considering his traditional stats, which have him light years ahead of the pack. His 34 home runs and 85 RBI give him a significant advantage over the next closest competitors in the AL, and he's got the analytics profile supporting ongoing success.

Judge's AL MVP price skyrockets in the second half of the season. This is the best you can hope for the rest of the way.
Baltimore Orioles to Win the AL East +125
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles series before the All-Star break is a perfect metaphor for what to expect the rest of the way. These two teams have been locked in a back-and-forth battle all year, but the advantage in the AL East futures market lies in backing the upstart O's.

The Orioles have a better OPS, outpacing the Yankees in extra-base hits 337-290, with fewer strikeouts and more stolen bases. Although the Yankees have a slight advantage in terms of ERA, Baltimore has allowed fewer baserunners and home runs, implying they are on a more sustainable path forward.

In addition to superior metrics, the Orioles have the division lead at the break and are underserved underdogs in the AL East battle. We're staking a claim to the O's as plus-money dogs, expecting them to sustain their current form into October.
Corbin Burnes to Win the AL Cy Young +300
Heading into the season's unofficial second half, Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal is priced as the odds-on favorite to win this year's AL Cy Young award. But Corbin Burnes will have something to say about that before the season's over.

As it stands, both pitchers have comparable stats. Skubal's ten wins and 2.41 ERA marginally outpace Burnes's nine and 2.43, respectively, but we've seen the Baltimore Orioles ace turn things on in the campaign's second half.

Last year, Burnes posted a 2.71 ERA after the All-Star break, compared to a 3.94 benchmark before it. The 2022 season stands out as an anomaly, but in 2021, seven of Burnes' 11 wins came after the mid-summer classic.

Skubal has never pitched more than 149.1 innings throughout his career, casting doubt on his ability to tolerate a season-long workload. Meanwhile, Burnes seems to find his footing in the second half of the season. Now is the time to buy Burnes as this year's AL Cy Young winner.
Cleveland Guardians to Win the AL Central -170
We must stop pretending that other teams in the AL Central have a shot at winning the division this year. The Cleveland Guardians have been one of the most well-rounded teams in 2024, and nothing will stop them from winning the second division title in three years.

The typically stingy Guardians get more out of their pitching staff than nearly every other team. Collectively, they rank seventh in ERA and strikeouts and tenth in baserunners allowed. However, more consistent batting has led them to the top of the AL Central. Year over year, the team has jumped from 27th in OPS to 12th and 30th in home runs to ninth.

Everything is going right in C-Town. And with 14 of their next 19 games after the All-Star break coming at home, the Guardians should extend their AL Central lead early in the second half, driving the betting price up with it.
San Diego Padres to Win the NL West+2300
Purveyors of value may have already dipped their toes in the NL West waters, but bettors should be ready to make a big splash. The San Diego Padres will disrupt the Los Angeles Dodgers' path to a third straight division crown.

We see that the Dodgers aren't as invincible as we thought at the start of the season. Injuries have decimated their starting rotation, and when the big three fall off at the top of the lineup, so does the rest of the order.

Conversely, the Padres are getting the most out of their starting pitching, have a sturdy bullpen, and can hang with the best of them offensively, even without Fernando Tatis Jr.

Losers of seven of their past ten, the Dodgers are expected to falter further after the All-Star break. Late-season surges have become synonymous with San Diego, only this time, they have less ground to make up. We're putting our eggs in the Padres' basket in the NL West, our preferred value play in the second half of the MLB season.
Aaron Judge to Win AL MVP -380
Sometimes, it's hard to conceptualize how exceptional Aaron Judge really is, and the current betting price for him to win this year's AL MVP is a pristine example. The New York Yankees slugger is far and away the best player in the American League and is worth the investment to win the second MVP award of his career.

Granted, Judge has been mired in a bit of a slump recently. But his underperforming is better than most players can deliver at their peak. Over the past few weeks, Judge has a diminished .975 OPS, with 14 strikeouts and just six extra-base hits. Still, his season-long benchmark of 1.114 is over 100 points clear of the next closest player, teammate Juan Soto.

That's without considering his traditional stats, which have him light years ahead of the pack. His 34 home runs and 85 RBI give him a significant advantage over the next closest competitors in the AL, and he's got the analytics profile supporting ongoing success.

Judge's AL MVP price skyrockets in the second half of the season. This is the best you can hope for the rest of the way.

5 MLB Bets You Need to Make for After the 2024 All-Star Game

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