Assessing the NL Wild Card Edge: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

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Rotation Edge

With Yu Darvish rejoining the Padres' rotation, their pitching lineup has gained stability for the final stretch of the season. Dylan Cease and Joe Musgrove stand out as the primary anchors for the team and will be heavily relied upon through the end of the season. Darvish's return bolsters hope for stronger performances in the middle and back end of the rotation.

So far, the Padres’ starters have posted a collective ERA of 4.10 this season, closely trailing the Dodgers’ rotation ERA of 4.12. With a collective FIP of 3.96, tied for eighth across all MLB teams and leading in the NL West, there is genuine optimism about what the Padres' starters can achieve with each having roughly three to four starts remaining in the season.

A crucial factor for San Diego will be Michael King's performance, who has maintained a 2.50 ERA over his last seven starts (39.2 innings). If he continues to excel and Darvish provides both an emotional and statistical lift, the Padres could well position themselves for a strong postseason start at home. Meanwhile, the D-backs, bolstered by offseason acquisitions like Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez and veterans like Merrill Kelly and Cy Young finalist Zac Gallen, might seem to have an advantage.

However, unforeseen challenges have disrupted the D-backs’ plans, with significant injuries throughout the season. According to FanGraphs, Brandon Pfaadt leads D-backs starters with a 3.1 fWAR, followed by Gallen and Ryne Nelson. Despite the strategic acquisitions, these new arms have not yet delivered full value, and Montgomery has recently been shifted to the bullpen. The entire D-backs rotation holds a collective 9.1 fWAR, ranking 18th in MLB, with a combined ERA of 4.73 (26th).

Pitching coach Brent Strom could be considered a secret weapon for the D-backs, yet even his expertise may struggle to uplift a rotation that ranks 21st in innings pitched. Much will hinge on how Gallen and Kelly conclude the season.

Edge: San Diego

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Bullpen Edge

San Diego bolstered its bullpen at the trade deadline by acquiring Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from Miami, both of whom have significantly contributed. Scott has recorded a 2.25 ERA over 16.0 innings in 17 appearances, and Hoeing has achieved a 1.13 ERA across 16.0 innings in 11 games.

The Padres are also welcoming back veteran southpaw Wandy Peralta, who has been on the injured list since mid-July. His return provides manager Mike Shildt with an additional left-handed option for critical situations.

These pitchers primarily serve in late innings, with Robert Suarez standing out as the closer, currently fourth in all of baseball with 31 saves. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks entered 2024 with a strong bullpen and further strengthened it at the deadline by acquiring AJ Puk, adding him to a relief corps that's enhanced their bullpen's capability.

However, challenges have arisen, particularly with Paul Sewald struggling with control and ultimately losing the closer role. Currently, Kevin Ginkel, with a 1.4 fWAR, leads as the D-backs' most valuable reliever, followed by Justin Martinez at 1.1 fWAR. Martinez's performances can vary significantly, ranging from dominant to difficult.

Collectively, the D-backs' relievers hold a 2.5 fWAR, ranking them 17th in MLB. They also rank 23rd in ERA, indicating struggles, despite their bullpen's 533 innings pitched ranking eighth. This suggests that the bullpen is experiencing fatigue following an underperforming starting rotation.

Edge: San Diego

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Lineup Edge

As September began, San Diego Padres fans were thrilled to see Fernando Tatis Jr. return to the lineup after being sidelined since late June due to a right femoral stress reaction. Tatis made an immediate impact, delivering the game-winning hit in a 2-for-6 performance on Wednesday. His return significantly strengthens a Padres lineup already featuring stars like Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. However, the standout this season has been Jackson Merrill, who leads the team with a 3.7 bWAR and is currently the frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year according to BetMGM. Merrill’s contribution of 22 home runs and a .292/.323/.498 batting line has been invaluable.

In another surprising development, Jurickson Profar, a first-time All-Star, has emerged as one of the unexpected stars of baseball, with a .278/.383/.461 slash line, though he recently snapped a 1-for-23 slump with a home run in a 1-for-3 game on Thursday.

For the Padres, another key moment this September will be Ha-Seong Kim’s return to the lineup following recovery from a jammed shoulder. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks continue to boast one of baseball's most potent offenses, despite challenges such as Corbin Carroll’s struggles, injuries to regulars Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno, and Eugenio Suárez’s early-season difficulties.

Yet, the defining trait of the Diamondbacks is their resilience and deep bench. Jake McCarthy has regained form, producing a 125 wRC+, and Ketel Marte was a contender for NL MVP before an ankle injury sidelined him. Suárez has improved dramatically post-All-Star break, as has Carroll, who was named the NL's August Player of the Month.

With a 28.3 fWAR, only trailing the Yankees’ 30.1, and leading MLB in on-base percentage (.336), the Diamondbacks’ offense is formidable. Though they have fewer home runs and stolen bases compared to last year, they continue to generate runs and secure wins effectively.

Edge: Arizona

Schedule Edge

September's home games look promising for the Padres, with the San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, and Chicago White Sox visiting Petco Park. However, maintaining their Wild Card edge will require solid performances on the road, as 11 of their final 20 games are away. The season concludes with a critical six-game road trip against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, pivotal for San Diego's hopes of hosting the Wild Card round.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks face a tough schedule, including series against the Houston Astros and a rematch of the 2023 World Series with the Texas Rangers. They also have challenging matchups against the Milwaukee Brewers, spanning six games, but lighter series against the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants are also on the agenda.

A key series to watch — and possibly the most decisive — will be the final matchup of the season between the D-backs and Padres, which could ultimately decide the postseason fate for both teams.

Edge: Arizona

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