MLB · 1 year ago

Brewers Leading Charge to Clinch First MLB Division of 2024

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Milwaukee Brewers Pave Way in NL Central
The 2024 Milwaukee Brewers serve as a perfect example of baseball's inherent unpredictability.

The offseason brought significant challenges for the Brewers, involving a comprehensive overhaul from the major league roster to the upper echelons of the front office.

Significant changes occurred: David Stearns, a key executive, departed for the New York Mets; Craig Counsell, the franchise's winningest manager, unexpectedly took over as manager for division rival Chicago Cubs; Cy Young-winning pitcher Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles; co-ace Brandon Woodruff was sidelined for the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery; and All-Star closer Devin Williams was out for the first half of the season with back fractures.

With numerous reasons to discount the team at the start of the season, it appeared that every other team in the National League Central was poised to improve from 2023, while the Brewers seemed destined for a rebuild.

Yet, by mid-August, Milwaukee had defied expectations. Despite the odds, their winning streak persisted throughout 2024.

Since April 30, the Brewers have led the NL Central without interruption and have held the division lead exclusively since May 9. Since July 14, no team has closed to within 4.5 games of them at the top of the standings. Their division lead has reached a season-high 11.5 games, the largest margin in any MLB division by four games.

Who would have anticipated that the Brewers would be 21 games above .500 with nearly a month left in the season? How likely was it that they would have the largest run differential in the National League at +107 after the first 125 games? Who could have imagined they would be just one game behind the top seed in the entire National League as September approached?

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Postseason Chances
It's remarkable how significantly the Brewers have exceeded their preseason expectations at this point in the season.

Consider the 2024 ZiPS projections from FanGraphs. Before the season began, this model predicted the Brewers would finish fourth in their division with a 78-84 record. It assigned them a 27.3% chance of reaching the postseason and just a 14.7% chance of winning the division. Given the extensive changes throughout their organization, it was logical for the projections to anticipate a regression from their successful 2023 campaign.

Yet, with just over a month remaining in the regular season, the Brewers have surpassed these projections. FanGraphs now estimates Milwaukee has a 99.4% probability of making the postseason, a 99.1% chance of clinching the division, and a 33.3% chance of securing a bye.

BetMGM's NL Central projections echoed this cautious outlook, setting the Brewers' season win total at 76.5 wins. Their odds to win the division were initially placed at +750.

Now, the Brewers are on track to exceed that win total before September even begins, with their current odds to win the NL Central dramatically shifting to -10000, as per BetMGM.

The Brewers' performance this season is highly commendable. Initially viewed as postseason long shots in March, they are now poised to be the first MLB team to clinch their division this year, highlighting their exceptional season in Milwaukee.
Brewers Take Advantage
Like many successful teams, the Brewers have taken advantage of competing in a weaker division this season.

The NL Central has arguably been the least competitive division in baseball, distinguished by being the only one where just a single team has maintained a record above .500.

While other teams in the division have fallen short of expectations, the Brewers have excelled at applying consistent pressure on their division rivals, establishing a significant lead in the standings.

The following tables showcase the performance of each NL Central team against their divisional opponents in 2024. The first table presents the offensive metrics within the division, and the second shows how each team's pitching staff has fared against the other four teams in the division to date.

The Brewers stand out as the most balanced team in the division, a fact that is clearly evident in the standings.

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NL Central Success
The Brewers have excelled in their intradivision play this season, which has been crucial in securing their position at the top of the Central with the most commanding division lead in baseball.

In matchups within their division, the Brewers lead in batting average, on-base percentage, are near the top in slugging percentage, and have stolen more bases than any other team.

Their offense has shown both consistency and balance, with a diverse approach to run production playing a central role in their success.

Additionally, their pitching staff has outperformed all other teams in the division. Even without big-name pitchers, Milwaukee's starters boast a 3.20 ERA and a .226 opponent batting average against division opponents, both of which are the best in the NL Central.

Particularly noteworthy is the exceptional performance of Milwaukee’s bullpen. Against their division rivals, the Brewers' relievers have maintained a 2.75 ERA, significantly lower than any other team in the division, and have held opponents to a .203 batting average, nearly 20 points better than the next closest team.
Brewers Carry Over Division Success
Moreover, Milwaukee's supremacy in the NL Central isn't just a phenomenon of this season. Last year, the Brewers clinched the division by nine games, finishing with the top intradivision record in the NL Central at 33-19. Since Opening Day 2023, the Brewers have compiled a record of 58-33 against their division rivals.

In contrast, other teams in the division have not fared as well over the past two seasons. The Cubs have a record of 47-48 in division play, the Pirates are at 42-42, the Reds at 39-48, and the Cardinals at 38-53.

Lately, the division has been dominated by Milwaukee, and they are now poised to secure back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1982 when they were part of the AL East. Additionally, the Brewers are on track to achieve 90 or more wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1979.
Postseason Race
The Brewers not only have the opportunity to be the first team to clinch their division in 2024, but they are also contending for a first-round bye in the postseason. It's worth noting that the top two division winners secure a direct entry to the Division Series, while the third must participate in the Wild Card Series.

As of August 21, the Brewers are just one game shy of a bye, contending with the Philadelphia Phillies (74-52) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (75-52) for the top spots in the National League standings.

In head-to-head competition, the Dodgers lead the season series 4-3 against the Brewers, giving them the tiebreaker advantage should they finish with identical records and both win their divisions. To surpass the Dodgers, the Brewers will need to end the season with a better record.

The scenario with the Phillies is particularly intriguing. Although the Phillies currently hold a 3-0 advantage over the Brewers this season, they are scheduled for three more matchups in September. Should the Brewers and Phillies finish the regular season tied, and their head-to-head record is even, the next tiebreaker would be the better intradivision record, where the Brewers currently hold the edge, although much baseball remains.

With the regular season nearing its close and fewer than 40 games remaining, each game becomes critical, especially in the thick of a postseason race. The Brewers aim to leverage their regular season momentum into October, hoping it will yield improved results in the postseason.

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Check out The Smylie Show on SportsGrid
Milwaukee Brewers Pave Way in NL Central
The 2024 Milwaukee Brewers serve as a perfect example of baseball's inherent unpredictability.

The offseason brought significant challenges for the Brewers, involving a comprehensive overhaul from the major league roster to the upper echelons of the front office.

Significant changes occurred: David Stearns, a key executive, departed for the New York Mets; Craig Counsell, the franchise's winningest manager, unexpectedly took over as manager for division rival Chicago Cubs; Cy Young-winning pitcher Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles; co-ace Brandon Woodruff was sidelined for the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery; and All-Star closer Devin Williams was out for the first half of the season with back fractures.

With numerous reasons to discount the team at the start of the season, it appeared that every other team in the National League Central was poised to improve from 2023, while the Brewers seemed destined for a rebuild.

Yet, by mid-August, Milwaukee had defied expectations. Despite the odds, their winning streak persisted throughout 2024.

Since April 30, the Brewers have led the NL Central without interruption and have held the division lead exclusively since May 9. Since July 14, no team has closed to within 4.5 games of them at the top of the standings. Their division lead has reached a season-high 11.5 games, the largest margin in any MLB division by four games.

Who would have anticipated that the Brewers would be 21 games above .500 with nearly a month left in the season? How likely was it that they would have the largest run differential in the National League at +107 after the first 125 games? Who could have imagined they would be just one game behind the top seed in the entire National League as September approached?

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Brewers Leading Charge to Clinch First MLB Division of 2024

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