Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 Prediction | World Series Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
Put the champagne on ice, baby. The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win shy of claiming their second World Series title since 2020. LA jumped out to an early lead against the New York Yankees in Game 3 and never looked back. In doing so, they staked themselves to a commanding 3-0 series lead over the AL Champions and can clinch the Commissioner’s Trophy on Tuesday night. The Yankees are sending rookie sensation Luis Gil to the mound to try and salvage the series, but it’s too little too late for the Bronx Bombers.
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Where to Watch Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 4
- Location: Yankees Stadium
- Time: 8:08 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: Fox, Sportsnet
- Spread: Yankees -1.5 | Moneyline: Yankees -130 | Total: 8.5
Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 4 Best Bet: Dodgers +110
Gil got off to a tremendous start to the season but hit a wall as the season progressed. Before this season, the rookie right-hander had never pitched more than 108.2 innings. This year, he passed that benchmark by the end of July. Subsequently, we witnessed a drastic decline in his metrics. Through his first 22 starts to the season, Gil had accumulated a sterling 3.05 ERA and allowed just ten home runs through his first 117.2 innings pitched. Across his last eight starts, including one postseason start, his ERA ballooned to 4.39 with eight homers across 43.0 innings. Gil isn’t tolerating the sustained workload, which is costing the Yankees. New York burned through seven relief pitchers in Game 3, showing the Dodgers the entire arsenal of their pitching staff and taxing the bullpen. Those factors work against the Yankees, leaving an edge in backing LA on Tuesday night.
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Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 4 Best Bet Total: Under 8.5
Los Angeles pitchers have been up to the test the entire postseason. Across 14 playoff games, the Dodgers have a collective 3.89 team ERA with an MLB-best 111 strikeouts. Moreover, both of those benchmarks look even better in the World Series. The Dodgers have dropped their ERA to 2.25 against the Yankees with 31 punch-outs across 28.0 innings pitched. None of the Yankees’ top hitters are performing well, but Aaron Judge has been conspicuously quiet in the postseason. The Yankees slugger is 1-for-12 against the Dodgers with seven strikeouts and eight left on base. Altogether, New York has a .578 OPS with nearly double the number of strikeouts (31) than its hits (19). Irrespective of who the Dodgers trot to the mound, the Yankees won’t be able to hit them. Consequently, they don’t have the firepower to push this one over the total.
Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 4 Best Player Props
Freddie Freeman to Record a Home Run +630
After opening as a +3000 longshot to win the World Series MVP, Freddie Freeman has jumped to the front of the pack and is currently priced at -1900. His rejuvenated power has propelled the Dodgers to all three of their wins, and we expect more heroics from him in Game 4. As noted, Gil has struggled to keep the ball in the park lately, but there are a few other metrics to note. First, his HR/9 is 1.3 versus lefties compared to 0.9 versus righties. Likewise, his HR/9 jumps from 0.8 on the road to 1.3 at home. Finally, of the last seven home runs he’s given up, all but one have come at Yankee Stadium. Freeman has a home run in all three outings and has no business being priced as a +630 longshot to record another long fly ball on Tuesday night. We’re betting he stands on form and swats another World Series-clinching home run in Game 4.
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