MLB · 2 hours ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Monday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (September 1)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Monday’s baseball schedule!

Where to Watch Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Ballpark: George M. Steinbrenner Field
Location: Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: FDSNSUN, RSNW
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Spread: SEA -1.5 (+146) | Total: 8.5 (-112/-108)
Moneyline: SEA -108 | TB -108

This Labor Day brings a wonderful baseball catalog, and with that, I’m targeting a contest between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays from George M. Steinbrenner Field. That leaves Luis Castillo and Shane Baz as Monday’s projected starters.

Castillo has worked effectively in 2025, posting a 4.08 FIP while inducing ground balls at a 41.8% rate. Conversely, Baz is operating with a 4.66 FIP, but he has had an issue with walks, giving up 3.38 free passes per nine innings.

Both squads are having solid seasons despite not being in first place in their respective divisions. However, Seattle boasts an 87.2% chance of making the playoffs, while Tampa’s figure in that same category is a lowly 1.7%. Much of that has been caused by the Mariners having a better offense. Right now, the M’s are tagged with a .728 team OPS compared to the Rays (who display a .713 OPS).

According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, Seattle has a 56% probability of winning tonight in Florida. Since I see the Mariners as the stronger side here, I’ll take them on the moneyline for a pick ’em price (-108 odds) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best Bet: Mariners ML (-108)

Where to Watch Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Ballpark: Chase Field
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Where to Watch: RSN, ARID, MLBN
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Spread: ARI -1.5 (+134) | Total: 9 (-112/-108)
Moneyline: TEX +120 | ARI -142

For Monday’s nightcap, we’ll see a rematch of the 2023 World Series. That means the Arizona Diamondbacks are hosting the Texas Rangers at Chase Field. On the mound, expect to see RHP Ryne Nelson and LHP Patrick Corbin.

Corbin — who spent his first six MLB campaigns with Arizona — has compiled a 4.33 ERA throughout 131 innings pitched for Texas in 2025. From there, he is doing well to keep away from loud contact; Corbin presently shows a 37.9% hard-hit rate (per Statcast), which is his best figure since 2018. Overall, he is listed with a solid 1.27 WHIP over 89 career appearances at Chase Field.

Nelson has been stingy this year by allowing just 0.94 home runs per nine innings. That is further exemplified by his 3.99 skill-interactive ERA in 2025. Still, it should be noted that Texas is currently the hottest team in MLB; the Rangers have snapped off five straight wins at this juncture.

Since August 25, Texas has posted a .933 OPS. Additionally, they’ve posted 50 total runs in that span. Meanwhile, Arizona will be taking on a lefty in Corbin. The D-backs have been slightly weaker versus southpaws this season, showing a .727 team OPS in the split (compared to .774 versus RHP).

The Rangers are listed as an underdog (+120 ML at FanDuel Sportsbook), and that entices me to ride their active winning streak. Just as they did two years ago, I think Texas gets the better of the Diamondbacks tonight.