MLB · 4 hours ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (September 10)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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Wednesday’s MLB slate brings two intriguing matchups for bettors. In Cleveland, the Royals and Guardians continue their divisional series with both lineups ranking among the league’s weakest — a perfect setup for another under. Later in Toronto, the Blue Jays host the Astros in a potential playoff preview. Toronto boasts one of baseball’s most efficient offenses and has dominated at Rogers Centre, while Jose Berrios provides stability on the mound. Houston, on the other hand, continues to stumble at the plate and hands the ball to rookie Jason Alexander.

Two games, two very different profiles, but both offering value.

Let’s feast!

Where to Watch Royals vs Guardians

Ballpark: Progressive Field
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Where to Watch: CLEG, FDSKC
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: KC -1.5 (+162) | Total: 8
Moneyline: KC -106 | CLE -110

Bet 1: Game Total Under 8 (-106)

The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians continue their four-game set in Cleveland tonight, after the Guardians took the first two games of the series. While the former Tribe has beaten up on their AL Central rivals this season, I’m not concerned with wins and losses, just runs. We’re rolling on the under between two teams that have combined for eight runs or fewer in seven of their 11 season meetings so far. Here’s to eight coming in tonight.

Both of these offenses have been particularly bad all season long, but we will start with the visitors. Kansas City sits third from the bottom in baseball, scoring just 3.84 runs per game. This comes on a team batting average (.244) in the bottom half of the league and a .696 OPS, which ranks them 24th in MLB. They have just 138 long balls as a team, which lands them 26th in the league and the seventh-lowest slugging percentage at .390.

The Royals’ swing metrics aren’t any better, and it’s easy to see, when looking at them, why Kansas City’s production at the plate has been so poor. KC has the sixth-worst barrel rate, connecting just 7.6% of the time. The Royals’ 40.2% hard hit rate is also well below average as they sit just outside the bottom 10.

Cleveland’s offense may be even worse as they have been one of the least threatening units in baseball this year, and there’s little evidence to suggest that changes anytime soon. Scoring has been a grind for this lineup, and it’s more than just a temporary slump.

The advanced numbers reveal a foundation built on shaky ground. The Guardians rank dead last in expected batting average (.232), expected slugging (.376), and expected wOBA (.298). Those marks confirm this isn’t a case of poor luck — it’s structural. Their quality of contact only deepens the concerns. A 6.6% barrel rate puts them second to the very bottom, while their 35.7% hard-hit rate is the lowest in the league. Add in an average exit velocity of just 88.4 MPH (tied for last), and you get a lineup that simply doesn’t generate enough impact to pressure pitchers. Without extra-base potential, they’re forced to string together soft singles to create runs, a recipe that rarely works against even semi-competent arms.

Recent performance tells the same story. Over the last 30 days, Cleveland has posted a .213 average, a .275 on-base percentage, a .338 slugging mark, and a .613 OPS — every one of them the worst or second-worst figures in baseball during that stretch. They’ve crossed the plate just 3.7 times per game across those 27 contests, also ranking second from the bottom.

While Cleveland may get a bit of a break today, with the Royals going with a bullpen game, the Guardians haven’t shown they can hit any pitchers, starting or relieving. Kansas City doesn’t get a break against lefty Logan Allen. While Allen is not ace, sporting an ERA of 4.64, the Royals have not fared well against southpaws, with an OPS (.655) that lands them in the bottom seven of the league. Add in a .233 average, .300 OBP, and .355 slugging percentage, all of which land in the bottom 10 in baseball, and it’s clear to see they hit lefties the way they hit everything else, poorly.

I like runs to come at a premium tonight, and these two division rivals to stay low on the scoreboard.

KC vs CLE Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Astros vs Blue Jays

Ballpark: Rogers Centre
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Where to Watch: SNET, SCHN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Spread: TOR -1.5 (+136) | Total: 9
Moneyline: HOU +120 | TOR -142

Bet 2: Blue Jays Moneyline -142

In a potential playoff preview, the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros continue their three-game set at Rogers Center after Toronto took last night’s series opener, 4-3 in 10 innings.

Few lineups have been steadier this season than Toronto’s. The Blue Jays pace the league in batting average (.269) by a comfortable margin and also sit atop the charts in on-base percentage (.338). Add in a second-place standing in OPS (.770) and a top-four ranking in runs per game (4.99), and it’s clear this offense consistently delivers.

The advanced data confirms the legitimacy of that output. Toronto leads all of baseball in expected batting average (.271) while ranking fifth in xwOBA (.341) and sixth in expected slugging (.443). That blend of steady contact and legitimate power explains why they’ve remained one of the league’s most effective run-producing units from start to finish.

Toronto has also been dynamite at home. Not only do they sport top-five rankings in average (.271), OBP (.342), slugging percentage (.449), and OPS (.791), but they have an outstanding record at Rogers Center. The Jays are tied for the best home mark in the bigs at 46-24 and have shown no signs of slowing down.

Jose Berrios has also tasted the home cooking, and it’s more than just poutine, Tim Horton’s, and ketchup chips. The right-hander pitched a gem against the Chicago Cubs in Toronto a few weeks ago, limiting the potent offense to just two hits and no runs through five-plus innings. He’s been very consistent all season in general, logging 154.2 innings with a 4.02 ERA, punching out 131 along the way. His 14 quality starts highlight his reliability, and more often than not, he’ll work at least five innings, giving Toronto a dependable arm to back its potent lineup.

Once mighty, the Astros have been anything but a potent lineup this season. Houston sits in the bottom six of baseball, putting up just 4.2 runs per game. This comes on a middling slugging percentage (.402) and 160 home runs, which lands them in the bottom half of the league. Their advanced metrics are also mediocre. A .321 xwOBA and .372 xwOBACON both land in the bottom 12, while their .416 expected slugging percentage ranks 13th from the bottom.

While Houston has been successful with solid pitching, tonight’s starter does not really qualify with that description. Rookie Jason Alexander has been below average, with a 4.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .273 expected opponents’ batting average, which dwarfs his .238 actual opponents’ batting average. Regression looks to be in the cards, and it starts tonight in Toronto.

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