MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (September 24)

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two matchups with strong betting value, and both involve clubs with postseason stakes still on the line. The Toronto Blue Jays bring one of the league’s most balanced lineups into a pivotal divisional matchup against the Boston Red Sox, with Max Scherzer looking to steady the rotation against Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs aim to strengthen their playoff positioning at home against the New York Mets, turning to veteran Matthew Boyd to outduel rookie Jonah Tong. With elite lineups backing them, both the Jays and Cubs set up as sharp moneyline plays.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Where to Watch Red Sox vs Blue Jays 

• Ballpark: Rogers Centre 
• Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• Where to Watch: SNET, NESN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Spread: BOS -1.5 (+136) | Total: 7.5
• Moneyline: BOS -132 | TOR +112

Bet 1: Blue Jays Moneyline +112

The Toronto Blue Jays bring one of the most balanced lineups in baseball, and the advanced metrics prove it’s no fluke. The Blue Jays lead MLB in batting average at .266, well ahead of the pack, while also pacing the league in on-base percentage (.334). They complement that steady contact with real firepower, sitting fifth in OPS (.759) and inside the top five in runs scored (4.9 per game).

Digging deeper, Toronto’s underlying data reveals the true sustainability of this offense. They own the highest expected batting average in baseball (.270) and rank in the top six in both xwOBA (.340) and expected slugging (.442). This isn’t a lineup that feasts on soft spots — it’s a group that manufactures quality at-bats and produces runs regardless of opponent.

On the mound, Max Scherzer has looked much closer to his vintage form than the season-long stat line suggests. Between late June and late August, his ERA has dropped nearly two full runs (from 5.63 to 3.60). While he’s hit a bit of a rough patch lately, Scherzer has shown he can dial it back to Mad Max mode at any time, evidenced by a stretch where he limited opponents to three or fewer runs in 10 of 11 games this summer. The future Hall of Famer still has the ability to limit hard contact and give his club a legitimate chance to win every fifth day.

Boston counters with Garrett Crochet, who’s been excellent all season, but the Jays have shown they can beat him. Toronto forced Crochet into four walks in a 6-1 defeat at Fenway earlier this season. The Cy Young candidate has not been as sharp as normal lately, allowing three earned runs or more in three of his past four starts, including serving up a seven-burger to the Cleveland Guardians a few weeks ago.

Toronto still has plenty to play for, with the New York Yankees just a game back of them in the AL East and the Jays still shooting for that first-round bye. The combination of Toronto’s relentless lineup, where they are even stronger at home, and Scherzer’s resurgence makes the Blue Jays moneyline the sharper side in this matchup, especially at plus money.

BOS vs TOR Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Mets vs Cubs

• Ballpark: Wrigley Field 
• Location: Chicago, Illinois
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Spread: CHC -1.5 (+184) | Total: 7.5
• Moneyline: NYM +104 | CHC -122

Bet 2: Cubs Moneyline -122

The Chicago Cubs still have plenty to play for even after clinching a playoff spot, as they go after home-field advantage in the opening round, while trying to play spoiler with the New York Mets’ playoff chances. New York has a slim one-game lead as the final wild card team, while Chicago’s magic number to clinch the top wild card spot is four.

Behind Seiya Suzuki’s steady power (27 HRs) and the breakout campaigns of Michael Busch (team-leading 30 HRs) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (29 HRS), the Cubs have established themselves as one of the more reliable lineups in baseball. They rank eighth in runs scored (4.8 per game) and ninth in OPS (.745), consistently generating quality swings and extra-base damage. Their pop is equally dangerous with 209 home runs (eighth in MLB), and the advanced data suggests this offense still has untapped upside. 

Chicago’s underlying metrics reinforce that edge. They’re third in expected batting average (.264), fourth in expected slugging percentage (.458), and fourth in xwOBA (.343). On contact, the Cubs profile among the elite, with a .397 xwOBACON (sixth), a 9.9% barrel rate (fifth), and a 15.4-degree average launch angle (fourth). Even without Kyle Tucker (IL-calf), the bats are dangerous. This is an offense built not just on results, but on sustainable swing quality.

On the mound, the Cubs turn to Matthew Boyd, who has been steady all season with a 13-8 record, 3.20 ERA, and 1.11 WHIP across 174.1 innings. The lefty’s ability to limit baserunners and keep the ball in the yard has been key for Chicago. He already has a quality start in the books against New York in 2025. Boyd limited the Mets to two earned runs while striking out eight early this season.

Opposite the Cubs’ lefty, the Mets send out rookie Jonah Tong, making his fifth career start. Tong has shown flashes of talent but endured early growing pains, entering with a 5.94 ERA while walking seven in just 16.2 innings. That inexperience against a disciplined Cubs lineup tilts the matchup firmly in Chicago’s favor.

While New York’s offense is dangerous, they haven’t been as effective lately and face a pitcher who has already handled them once this season. Chicago will avenge last night’s series-opening loss and get it done at Wrigley tonight.

NYM vs CHC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday

• Blue Jays Moneyline +112
• Cubs Moneyline -122