MLB · 18 hours ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (September 3)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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Wednesday’s MLB slate lines up with two plays that stand out in both matchup edges and betting value. The Phillies look to lock down a series win over the Brewers, sending Aaron Nola to the mound against Jose Quintana in what feels like another favorable spot for Philadelphia’s balanced offense, anchored by Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber.

Out west, San Francisco hands the ball to Robbie Ray as they go for a sweep of the Rockies, whose bats have been among the league’s least productive all season. Both angles present strong opportunities to close the night in profit.

Let’s get it!

Where to Watch Phillies vs Brewers

Ballpark: American Family Field
Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Where to Watch: MLB Network, SportsNet PT, FDSOH
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+162) | Total: 9
Moneyline: PHI -102 | MIL -116

Bet 1: Phillies Moneyline -102

The potential NLCS preview continues in the Cheese State as the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers renew acquaintances after Philly took last night’s barnburning series opener 10-8. While I don’t expect to see the over hit in such dramatic fashion again tonight, I like the same side coming out on top.

Philadelphia’s lineup strikes a dangerous balance—Trea Turner brings speed and precision, while Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber supply the muscle. The Phillies own the league’s third-best batting average at .258, rank in the top 10 in runs per game (4.8), and sit eighth in OPS at .751. Dig a little deeper, and the advanced metrics hint at even greater potential. Their .263 expected batting average ranks fourth, and their .445 expected slugging percentage sits fifth—both stronger than their surface numbers. Combine that with a .337 expected wOBA, sixth in MLB, and it’s clear this offense hasn’t peaked yet.

Milwaukee’s starter, Jose Quintana, has already seen what this lineup can do this year. In his only start against the Phillies in 2025, the veteran lefty was forced to be so careful against them that he issued four walks in a five-inning no-decision. The Phils went on to win that game 5-3, and it’s clear they got to the SP early. It’s something this lineup, full of patient veterans, can do on a nightly basis.

On the other side of the mound, Philly will have their long-time horse, Aaron Nola, on the mound. Nola has made just three starts since returning from ankle and rib injuries that cost him three months. The early returns have been good as the LSU alum has gone six innings in each of his past two starts, picking up wins in both. Facing the top team in baseball (85-54) will be Nola’s toughest challenge since he’s come back, but he has a sparkling resume against the Brewers. The veteran righty sports a 7-2 mark, 2.64 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and has 95 strikeouts in 85.1 career innings facing Milwaukee.

Anytime you can get the second-best team in baseball (85-58) for pretty much even money, you take it. I like the Phillies to clinch the series tonight.

PHI vs MIL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Giants vs Rockies

Ballpark: Coors Field
Location: Denver, Colorado
Where to Watch: COLR, NBCS-BA
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Spread: SF -1.5 (-140) | Total: 11
Moneyline: SF -210 | COL +176

Bet 2: Rockies Under 4.5 Runs -122

In the final game of the night on a slate full of day games, the San Francisco Giants look to wrap up the three-game sweep in Denver against the Colorado Rockies. It doesn’t take a hardcore baseball fan to know how bad the Rockies have been this season, and their offense is a major culprit for their historically terrible 2025.

The Rockies rank second-last in runs scored, putting up just 3.7 per game, coupled with the second-lowest OBP in the league at .297. Their offensive futility extends to a slugging percentage in the bottom 10 of baseball (.393) and the fourth-worst OPS in the league at .690. Colorado’s advanced metrics don’t paint a much prettier picture. The Rockies have the second-lowest xBA (.239), the fourth-worst xSLG (.395), and are second from the bottom with a .302 xwOBA.

Yes, the Rockies jump up to the 12th-best scoring home team, putting up 4.5 runs per game at Coors Field, but they are still wildly inconsistent and don’t have the type of lineup a pitcher has to really grind to work around. Even in this series so far, Colorado has scored six runs in the first two games, failing to score five in each. The job gets even tougher tonight.

Robbie Ray is one of San Fran’s top pitchers and a very tough lefty. Ray sports a 10-6 record, 3.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .212 batting average. That’s bad news for a team that is hitting just .240 on the year with an xBA lower than that. The former Toronto Blue Jay has a pitching run value score of 11, which puts him in the top 17 percent of big league pitchers, and a fastball run value score of 15, landing him in the top six percent of MLB. Ray has a 1.64 ERA against Colorado this season and pitched seven innings of two-hit shutout ball back in May against them.

I feel comfortable pulling the trigger on the under on a team that has failed to reach this number in eight of their past 11 games.

SF vs COL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates