MLB on TBS: Braves vs Mets Same Game Parlay Picks Today
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
A thrilling NL East clash continues at Citi Field as the New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves in prime time action on TBS. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET in Queens, where the Mets look to bounce back behind a high-powered offense and a solid home record. Despite Atlanta sending Spencer Strider to the mound, New York offers strong betting value as a home underdog, especially with offensive leaders like Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso heating up. With key strikeout props, total base markets, and pitching narratives in play, this divisional rivalry has all the makings of a betting blockbuster.
Get ready to swing for the fences with SportsGrid’s expert analysis and MLB game picks.
ATL vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates
Note: All odds and lines are courtesy of bet365 and are subject to change after the publication of this article.
Where to Watch Braves vs Mets
- Ballpark: Citi Field
- Location: Queens, NY
- Where to Watch: TBS
- Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Spread: NYM -1.5 (+146) | Total: 9
- Moneyline: ATL -146 | NYM +124
Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.
Leg 1: Mets Moneyline (+124)
The New York Mets are much too good a team to be getting plus money at home. That reason alone is enough to take a look at the underdog Metropolitans in the friendly confines of Citi Field.
There is no doubt that the pitching matchup favors the Braves in this one, as they will deploy Spencer Strider to face Frankie Montas, straight from the minors. While a Cy Young contender two years ago before getting hurt and missing almost all of last season, Strider is still blowing batters away with the K (45 in 37 IP, but also seeing mixed results. Spencer is just 2-5 with an ERA near four and has yet to get past the sixth inning in a start this year. Strider did best the Mets less than a week ago, spinning six innings of one-run ball while striking out eight, en route to a 7-1 win last Thursday.
Montas, on the other hand, has struggled during his rehab assignment, making his way back from a lat injury. The former New York Yankee has allowed eight home runs in just 18 2/3 innings of work down on the farm. This will be the veteran righty’s first start of the season, and it could provide a bit of advantage. While Montas has been around, the Braves haven’t seen him in almost a year, so there could be a scouting report edge for the Mets starter.
Atlanta’s offense has been very mediocre this season, hitting just .245 on the year, ranking in the bottom half of baseball. The Braves have scored the ninth-fewest runs in the league in 2025 and rank in the bottom half in wOBA (.311).
New York’s offense hasn’t missed a beat all year, despite the team’s recent struggles in the win column. The Mets rank second with a .468 xSLG, their .352 xWOBA also ranks second, while New York’s xwOBAcon of .405 is good for fourth in all of baseball. The NL East contenders also rank in the top ten percent in barrel (10.4) and hard hit (44.7) rate, and top seven percent in average exit velocity (90.4 MPH).
With big guns like Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor buoying the offense, I like their chances, and price tag to get the win tonight at home.
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Leg 2: Spencer Strider Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-113)
While I like the Mets to do enough to pull out a W tonight, I also know they have their work cut out for them against a pitcher of the caliber of Spencer Strider. Strider is no stranger to the Mets’ bats, already striking out eight of them last week. In his previous start, the Braves’ ace threw 97 pitches, 66 of which were strikes. He definitely had his swing-and-miss stuff getting the core of the Mets lineup like Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo twice, and Jeff McNeil twice.
Getting strikeouts against New York, isn’t something new for Strider, as he rung up 22 Mets in 16 innings over three starts in 2023. In each appearance that year, Strider got at least six Ks, going over this number twice. That said, he also had a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 ERA against the Mets that year, which is why I am confident New York can still get to him tonight, despite going down swinging a fair bit.
Still, New York will have trouble making contact against a pitcher in the 94th percentile of all arms, with a 33.7% whiff rate to go along with a 29.4% K rate, putting Strider in the 87th percentile.
Expect a lot of Ks to go down during this Mets win.
Leg 3: Francisco Lindor to Record 2+ Bases (-105)
Francisco Lindor is the sparkplug to the Mets’ offense. Hitting atop the order for New York, Lindor has the ability to get on base or drive himself in with elite power, especially for a leadoff man. The former Cleveland Guardian has a swing for extra bases and the speed to get him there. While a double or home run would cash this leg early, Lindor can also get it done with boring old singles.
Lindor has been a big fan of Queens’ home cooking. The multiple-time All-Star is hitting a scorching .340 at home to go along with an eye-popping 1.011 OPS. Lindor has been feasting on fastballs, hitting 11 of his 16 home runs at normally pitcher-friendly Cit Field this year.
In his career against Strider, Frankie is hitting .333 with a .429 OBP in 21 plate appearances. His lone extra-base hit against the Braves starter was a triple to go along with five singles. Lindor has only struck out twice against Strider in 18 career at-bats.
Looking at Lindor’s advanced analytics only furthers his case for at least two bases tonight. The Mets switch hitter sports a .353 wOBA, .468 xSLG, and is in the 87th percentile with a baserunning run value rating of two.
I like Lindor to swing away tonight and collect at least a pair of bags against the Braves.
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Braves vs Mets SGP Payout: +724 Odds
- Mets Moneyline (+124)
- Spencer Strider Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-113)
- Francisco Lindor to Record 2+ Bases (-105)
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