Target Orioles’ Adley Rutschman in AL MVP Futures Betting

After years of disappointment and stockpiling assets, the Baltimore Orioles finally awoke from their regenerative slumber last year. The Orioles captured their first AL East title since 2014, surpassing the century mark in wins since 1980.

In doing so, Baltimore showed that the future is now.

Although they have a stable of young electric players, it’s becoming increasingly evident that Adley Rutschman is the catalyst driving the Os forward. 

Still, Rutschman’s betting price in the AL MVP futures market doesn’t accurately reflect his ceiling heading into the 2024 campaign.

Traditional Stats

Heading into his third season, Rutschman has exemplary traditional metrics. Additionally, his trajectory has him exceeding those benchmarks this year. 

The Orioles catcher burst onto the MLB scene in 2022, establishing a .806 OPS, thanks partly to his 13 homers and 49 extra-base hits in 113 games. Predictably, he ratcheted up those stats in 2023 with a slightly improved .809 OPS, 20 home runs, and 52 extra-base hits. Further, he nearly doubled his run production, going from 42 to 80 RBIs year-over-year. 

On the precipice of his prime years, Rutschman is poised to fly even higher. His sterling analytics profile validates that position.

Analytics Profile

Analytically, Rutschman stacks up as an elite hitter. The 26-year-old ranked in the 93rd percentile in expected weighted on-base average and 94th percentile in expected batting average. Those gaudy numbers are a reflection of his disciplined approach at the plate. Rutschman sits in the 90th percentile in strikeout percentage and 94th percentile in whiff rate, albeit with a slightly less impressive 81st percentile standing in chase rate. 

Factoring in his top-end sweet spot contact and power stroke as a lefty, and Rutschman’s MVP resume looks even more impressive heading into 2024.

Can Adley go over his HR total in 2024?

Offensive Team Leader

Rutschman’s MVP profile is enhanced by his team-leading metrics. The switch-hitter was one of the top producers for the Orioles last season, setting the team standard in hits while ranking second in runs and third in RBIs, homers, and extra-base hits. 

Further, his OPS put him just five points shy of Gunnar Henderson for the team-best, and Rutschman’s OBP was nearly 50 points higher than the next closest player.

Clearly, the O’s depend on Adley for his offensive production. As the team’s profile rises, so does Rutschman’s MVP candidacy.

SportsGrid predicts the Orioles starting lineup right here.

Defensive Abilities

Although MVPs typically earn the distinction for their offensive contributions, we can’t dismiss the importance of being a sound defensive player. Rutschman straddles that line, offering a robust player profile that makes him an attractive candidate. 

Rutschman ranked in the 81st percentile or better in framing, blocks above average, and pop time, earning a well-deserved reputation for being a top defensive stalwart. 

Combined with his hitting metrics, Rutschman will continue to build momentum as a top player in the American League throughout the season. 

Final Thoughts

This year’s AL MVP race is wide open. Fifteen different players are priced at +2500 or lower. Rutschman stands among those as an elite young player and an undervalued candidate. 

Altogether, Rutschman has an elite profile that is deserving of MVP consideration. As the season progresses, we expect him to deliver the career-best metrics, improving his standing in the AL MVP futures market. Moreover, the Orioles ascent only bolsters Rutschman’s profile. 

We’re expecting the price on Rutschman to dip throughout the season. To ensure maximum value, now is the time to back the Orioles’ catcher to add to his list of personal accolades.

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