The Struggling Tampa Bay Rays Are Leaning on an Unlikely Hero

We hear about the Tampa Bay Rays making under-the-radar moves, but we often don’t understand what they’ve done until the results play out on the field.

In past offseasons and at past trade deadlines, the organization has made countless moves that didn’t seem to add up. Yet, we have to give credit where credit is due, as they have made the playoffs repeatedly on one of the lowest budgets in the league.

No, they haven’t won the big one, but it’s still important to recognize that this team is more than competing within the strict margins within which it operates.

So, the same goes for this year, correct? We’re more than two months in, and thus far, we have seen nothing but a dead team.

Let’s get something straight: The Rays have never seen players as players; they see players as wins, achieved by scoring and preventing runs. This strategy is fantastic when the team is crossing home plate (and preventing opponents from crossing home plate), but that just hasn’t been the case for this year’s club.

So far in 2024, offensive struggles have plagued this squad. Their -62 run differential is ugly and looks even worse when you realize their 2023 run differential was +185. Even though pitching and defense are factored into run differential, the bats are the more significant issue here. 

We’ve seen this same core of Rays players produce for the past few years. There’s no question they’ve got the ability, but they have not executed up to this point.

This poor performance has quickly landed the Rays at the bottom of the ultra-competitive American League East. Their chances of finishing at or near the top of the division are starting to seem nonexistent in an environment where both the Yankees and Orioles are playing excellent baseball. 

The Rays’ Home Run Issues

So, if the Rays have shown to be such a brilliant unit in the past, then why has there been almost zero success for their bats in 2024?

To lead things off, let’s state the obvious: A total home run power outage has occurred down in St. Pete.

After Isaac Paredes (more on him in a moment), the player with the next-highest home run total is Randy Arozarena, with eight. The star outfielder has been one of the most disappointing players in the league over the first two-plus months of the season, hitting .175 with a .604 OPS.

His batting average looks even worse if you put it in the form of 40-for-228; he has nearly made 200 outs at the plate, and we’re just over two months in.

The Statcast data doesn’t offer much reason for confidence that he will turn it around, either. We’ve seen players prove expected stats wrong before, but the fact that he ranks in the fourth percentile of all major leaguers in whiff percentage is frightening. 

What about Yandy Díaz? You know, that guy who hit 22 homers with a .330 average in 2023?

He’s doing better than Randy, but that’s not saying much. And with just four dingers, Díaz can only have so much impact slapping the ball around the diamond if there’s nobody on base to drive home.

Many teams rely on the home run to score, a strategy that I’ve always been a fan of. It only takes one swing to put up a run. If you are playing small ball, it takes a lot of patience; much more must go your way before you score.

Just because the Rays are a low-payroll organization, it does not mean they play small ball.

The Rays have relied on the homer more than most other teams for the past few seasons; they placed sixth in MLB with 230 long balls last season and won 99 games.

This team probably never thought they’d rank last in team home runs at this point in 2024. And no homers seem to equal no success in this equation. A lot of their problems could be solved by hitting the long ball. Of course, that’s easier said than done.

Batted Ball Measurements

Could the Rays’ low home run total be related to their pull percentage? I wouldn’t think so since, so far, they are right around the league average.

Most of this team is comprised of young, right-handed hitters who like pulling the ball, as they have done in the past. Nobody does this better than Paredes, whose spray chart looks like an unbalanced connect the dots.

What about a low barrel percentage? The Rays are a full percentage point lower than the league average at 6.7%. Plus, they are not hitting the ball in the air enough, producing a lower flyball rate than the league average. If they can correct a few of these things and return to their former ways, a saved season could be on the horizon. 

Sure, it hasn’t helped that Josh Lowe has been injured for much of the year. He’s back now, but it won’t make much of a difference if the rest of the offense doesn’t wake up. Your second-best bat cannot be Amed Rosario or Jose Caballero, but that has been the reality.

Guys like Jose Siri and Richie Palacios have to be better. And, hopefully, once Junior Caminero gets the call, he’s ready to fill in and won’t shy away from those lofty expectations. 

Isaac Paredes pull homer machine! pic.twitter.com/UGIbFRh8aq

— Allen Couet (@TampaBayCouet27) July 22, 2023

A Singular Hero

This team hasn’t had much to smile about on the offensive side. The bats have gone silent. However, one man continues to prove his many doubters wrong.

Despite his career year last season, many experts did not buy into Paredes and his 2023 numbers. Yet, if not for his solid hitting thus far, the Rays would be all but dead in the water.

Let’s dive deeper into why Paredes is undervalued and why many question this potential superstar. And while we’re at it, let’s talk about how the Rays knew he would be valuable.

Just last season, Paredes smacked 31 home runs and 98 RBIs in 143 games played. A .250/.352/.488 slash line was the final result, a level of production most players would dream of reaching.

But for some reason, high-level baseball analysts did not buy it, and many called for a considerable dip across the board. Consider that his expected batting average last season was .230. His xBA is currently sitting at .228, even though he is batting .288 up to this point.

In 50 games, Isaac Paredes is 18th in fWAR with 2.0, and has a 157 wRC+.

Top 83% in Whiff%, K%, LA sweet-spot%.

Traded for JUST Austin Meadows! pic.twitter.com/xfAA9AlQwP

— Discuss Baseball (@discussbaseball) May 27, 2024

So, should this lead to a deeper discussion about Statcast’s expected statistics?

The Tigers didn’t see much in Paredes, shipping him to Tampa Bay in exchange for Austin Meadows and a Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick just before the 2022 season kicked off.

Is it possible the Rays value and develop players differently than any other team? Are they looking at expected stats and laughing as the rest of the baseball industry puts too much faith in such figures?

I believe this is true because, over and over, the Rays turn mediocrity into usefulness. I think the Rays are creating their own expected statistics and shaping their transactions around said data.

We’ve heard it said that you don’t want to trade with the Rays. Their method of finding undervalued players is truly impressive. Before the Rays acquired Paredes, he was hitting .215 with just two homers in 57 career games. He is averaging 28 home runs per 162 games with Tampa Bay, while his batting average is nearly 30 points higher at .244.

Paredes is a special and unique player, not only because of his flying under-the-radar talent but because he seems to continually break Statcast data. His xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, bat speed, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage are all in the 30th percentile or lower. Yet, he keeps hitting and helping his team to as many victories as possible.

Here is something I found quite amazing: Since last season, no qualified third baseman has a higher wRC+ than Paredes. That alone should tell you the type of value he brings to southwest Florida.

Since 2023, no qualified third basemen have a higher wRC+ than…Isaac Paredes! (141)

Underrated superstar. pic.twitter.com/geddsPaOiV

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) June 3, 2024

Looking to the Future

No matter how the rest of the season goes for the Tampa Bay Rays, it’s vital to learn something from Isaac Paredes and his career. No individual scouts or individual metrics can say with 100% certainty whether or not a player will pan out.

There are so many moving parts to becoming a successful big leaguer, and talent alone will not help if you lack confidence and overall baseball intelligence.

So far, Paredes has shown these attributes, and the Rays’ belief in his player profile has paid off in a big way. This underestimated hot corner performer will not be stopping anytime soon. Hopefully, his teammates help him on the way to the finish line.

Stats and rankings were updated before first pitch on June 10.

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