MLB · 10 months ago

World Series Game 4 Yankees vs Dodgers Picks & Player Props

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World Series Game 4 Yankees vs Dodgers Picks & Player Props

Teoscar Hernandez! Our last World Series pick was in Game 2 when Teoscar Hernandez hit a home run to cash our over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (+100) ticket.

This series was supposed to be epic, but the Dodgers have fully taken control. For the Yankees, it’s win or go home, and I identified one player who is showing a lot of value today.

This playoff run we’ve been on has been a lot of fun. We are up 11.60 Units in the playoffs, meaning a $100 unit bettor is up $1,160, taking my plays in October.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees @ 8:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Bullpen Game (– ERA) vs. Luis Gil (3.50 ERA)

Elimination games are challenging to handicap. Especially this one, as the Dodgers are throwing out a bullpen game, Luis Gil isn’t expected to go very long if he isn’t highly efficient. We’ve done well in elimination games during the playoffs by tailing hitters who are seeing the ball well. Price is a driving factor here, as the heavy hitters are expensive. I want to back someone like Freddie Freeman, but will the Yankees pitch to him? He’s the only star in this game where the price is showing some value, but not enough to warrant a wager.

When looking at the bottom of these lineups, one player is getting no line respect, even though he’s been one of the better bats in the lineup. The reason he’s not priced appropriately is that his production has yet to be there necessarily. However, he’s been on a streak at home, lit up the exit velocity charts yesterday, and is facing his former team. I’m talking about Alex Verdugo.

Los Angeles Dodgers By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	fWAR
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	181	.431	1.036	9.2
Mookie Betts (RF)	141	.371	.863	4.4
Freddie Freeman (1B)	137	.365	.854	4.0
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)	134	.360	.840	3.5
Max Muncy (3B)	135	.362	.852	2.4
Will Smith (C)	111	.326	.760	2.7
Enrique Hernandez (CF)	83	.285	.654	0.7
Tommy Edman (SS)	98	.307	.711	0.9
Gavin Lux (2B)	100	.310	.703	1.5
Team	118	.337	.781	33.7

These are offensive statistics from the 2024 regular season. I pulled everything from the typical starting lineup; at the bottom, that’s the entire team. So, the starters’ stats won’t add up to the final tally because it incorporates all players from the regular season.

Playoff Statistics

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	Hard-Hit Rate
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	166	.409	.934	44%
Mookie Betts (RF)	182	.435	1.063	47.2%
Freddie Freeman (1B)	31	.208	.461	26.9%
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)	101	.312	.690	32.1%
Max Muncy (3B)	187	.439	1.014	34.8%
Will Smith (C)	78	.277	.605	28.1%
Enrique Hernandez (CF)	145	.377	.863	24%
Tommy Edman (SS)	123	.345	.811	22%
Gavin Lux (2B)	61	.258	.593	26.1%
Team	122	.343	.785	30.8%

These are offensive statistics from this year’s playoffs to see the hottest hitters in the lineup. I substituted Hard-Hit rate for fWAR in the playoffs, so we can see who consistently hits the ball the hardest. Players hitting the ball hard without seeing results may be in line for a better series moving forward, and vice versa.

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Name	xERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Jack Flaherty	3.51	3.10	3.48	3.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	3.44	3.14	2.61	2.86
Walker Buehler	4.68	4.54	5.54	4.49

These are the three projected starting pitchers for the Los Angeles Dodgers in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.

Name	ERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Jack Flaherty	7.04	5.51	6.23	5.86
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.11	3.61	4.71	4.07
Walker Buehler	6.00	4.55	4.61	5.18
Team	6.08	4.78	5.59	5.17

New York Yankees By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	fWAR
Aaron Judge (CF)	218	.476	1.159	11.2
Juan Soto (RF)	180	.421	.988	8.1
Gleyber Torres (2B)	104	.313	.708	1.7
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)	116	.330	.773	0.8
Austin Wells (C)	105	.315	.717	3.4
Anthony Volpe (SS)	86	.287	.657	3.4
Jazz Chisholm (3B)	132	.353	.825	2.3
Anthony Rizzo (1B)	84	.285	.636	-0.2
Alex Verdugo (LF)	83	.283	.675	0.6
Team	117	.331	.761	33.7

Playoff Statistics

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	Hard-Hit Rate
Aaron Judge (CF)	94	.299	.704	45%
Juan Soto (RF)	203	.452	1.106	44.4%
Gleyber Torres (2B)	141	.365	.832	33.3%
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)	220	.478	1.179	59.3%
Austin Wells (C)	-1	.163	.348	33.3%
Anthony Volpe (SS)	147	.374	.804	39.1%
Jazz Chisholm (3B)	37	.218	.481	29.2%
Anthony Rizzo (1B)	182	.423	1.000	0%
Alex Verdugo (LF)	60	.251	.544	25%
Team	117	.330	.759	36.6%

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Name	xERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Gerrit Cole	3.59	3.79	3.69	3.99
Carlos Rodon	3.96	3.78	4.39	4.09
Clarke Schmidt	3.75	3.77	3.58	3.92
Luis Gil	3.83	4.22	4.14	4.36

These are the four projected starting pitchers for the New York Yankees in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.

Starting Rotation (Playoffs)

Name	ERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Gerrit Cole	3.31	5.02	3.60	5.39
Carlos Rodon	4.40	1.75	2.12	1.99
Clarke Schmidt	3.86	4.37	4.56	4.62
Luis Gil	4.50	6.74	3.92	6.94
Team	3.89	3.81	3.35	4.26

Two players had multiple 100 MPH batted balls last night. Teoscar Hernandez and Alex Verdugo. It makes sense that it would be Teoscar; he’s outstanding and priced like it, but Verdugo isn’t. One of those Verdugo 100 MPH batted balls ended up in an out, even though it had a .430 xBA. The other ball he hit went over the fence against an elite reliever in Michael Kopech.

He’s recorded at least one batted ball over 95 MPH in all three games of this series. He went hitless in game two but had a 95 MPH flyout and a 90 MPH flyout. Not great, but he has been squaring the ball up, which is what we are looking for when analyzing the bottom of these lineups.

When looking at the series’ first game, he had a 102 MPH groundout and a 91 MPH single. So, in 10 ABs, he has four batted balls over 95 MPH and six batted balls over 90 MPH. That’s more than any Yankee at the bottom of the lineup.

I also like him today because there is a minimal chance he gets subbed out. Rizzo was pinch-ran for in this series, Austin Wells and Jose Trevino are a crapshoot, and Anthony Volpe needs to see breaking balls better. He’s a good defender in left, so we won’t see a defensive replacement, and he’s a solid base-runner, so it’s doubtful he gets pinch-ran for.

He’s not a guy the Dodgers will specifically bring in a left-hander to face because he hits last, and three of the four batters behind him are right-handed. He also rarely strikes out, sitting in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate, so we need one of these hard-hit balls to fall in the outfield.

Verdugo’s been on a heater at Yankee Stadium. He has exceeded 0.5 bases in six straight games at home, averaging 1.8 bases per game. In every home playoff game, he’s gotten at least one hit. Over his last nine games, he’s averaging 1.3 Hits/Runs/RBIs.

I’m more confident in him getting a hit today than scoring a run or recording an RBI, but if he gets on, I’m hoping someone from the top of this Yankees lineup can drive him in. So, while hitting ninth leaves us hoping for four ABs, he’s more likely to score being at the tail end of the lineup.

The only player on either side with cheaper prices is Jose Trevino, who is subject to getting pinch hit. Gavin Lux has the same prices today, and not only does he not have a hit in this series, but he’s been subbed out consistently.

A narrative is at play: the Dodgers traded him to the Red Sox. This organization drafted him, and he looked at that home run yesterday because this means a lot to him. In nine games against the Dodgers, dating back to 2023, he’s averaging 2.4 bases a game and has been over 0.5 bases in seven of nine games. He’s also been over 1.5 H/R/RBI in seven of nine games against the Dodgers, averaging 2.2. He’s put up solid ABs against both starters and bullpen arms all series, and I have a hard time believing he goes hitless in this elimination game.

My final pick of the season could be backing Alex Verdugo. With the way the Yankees have played, doesn’t that make sense?