76ers vs Knicks and Spurs vs Rockets 4-Leg NBA Parlay

This four-leg NBA parlay, featuring a mix of alternate spreads and player props, has a total odds payout of +615. With key injuries, defensive mismatches, and recent trends in mind, each pick is backed by analytics to maximize value. From Jalen Brunson’s scoring surge to Amen Thompson’s rebounding dominance, this parlay strategically leverages team weaknesses and player opportunities for a well-structured bet.

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Leg 1: 76ers Under Team Total 110.5 at Knicks (-114)

For the opening leg of this parlay, I’m targeting the Philadelphia 76ers team total under 110.5 (-114). With Joel Embiid sidelined, the 76ers have struggled to generate consistent offense, failing to surpass this number in their last five games—including three where Embiid played. Additionally, they’ve gone under this total in four straight without their star center, showcasing their offensive limitations.

Pick Breakdown:

-Recent Scoring Trends and Struggles: The 76ers have averaged just 108.4 PPG over their last 10 games, a stretch that has seen them go 1-9. During this span, they’ve shot an inefficient 44.7% from the field, further highlighting their scoring struggles. Without Embiid’s dominant presence inside, they’ve been forced to rely heavily on Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr., neither of whom have been able to carry the offense to high-scoring outputs.

-Matchup Disadvantages vs New York: The Knicks allow 113.5 PPG on the season but have a stronger defensive presence at home. They’ve already held Philadelphia under this total in both meetings this season in regulation, giving up just 99 and 119 points (10 in overtime) in their two prior matchups. 

-Divisional Performance & Road Woes: Philadelphia has had a rough time against Atlantic Division opponents, going just 3-8 against divisional foes. The team is also 7-24 against winning teams, reinforcing their inability to perform against tougher competition. To make matters worse, they are currently 10-17 on the road, averaging just 108.7 PPG in those contests.

-Pace and Three-Point Limitations: The 76ers rank just 26th in three-point percentage (34.3%), which will be a major problem against a Knicks defense that allows 13.8 made threes per game. Without reliable long-range shooting and an already diminished inside presence without Embiid, Philly’s offense will likely struggle to crack 110 points.

With their recent scoring struggles, a depleted roster, and the Knicks’ strong defense, this sets up well for another under on Philadelphia’s team total.

PHI vs NYK Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Leg 2: Jalen Brunson 25+ Points vs 76ers (-194)

For the second leg of this parlay, I’m opting for the safer play by taking Jalen Brunson 25+ points (-194) instead of the standard 26.5-point prop (-128). Brunson has been the offensive engine for the Knicks all season, and with Karl-Anthony Towns questionable for this game, he may need to carry an even larger scoring burden.

Pick Breakdown:

-Strong Matchup Against Philadelphia’s Defense: The 76ers rank 19th in defensive efficiency against opposing point guards, making this a favorable spot for Brunson. Philadelphia’s perimeter defense has also been suspect, allowing the third-worst opponent three-point percentage in the NBA (37%) and giving up 13.8 threes per game (20th in the league). Brunson (2.3 threes per game), who is capable from deep, should have plenty of opportunities to exploit this weakness.

-Brunson’s Consistency and Recent Performance Brunson has been on a tear, averaging 26.0 PPG on the season while shooting a solid 49.1% from the field. In his last eight games, he’s been efficient, consistently hitting this mark, going over 25 five times. His last performance against the 76ers in January resulted in a 38-point explosion, further reinforcing his ability to capitalize on this matchup.

-Potential Increased Offensive Role With Karl-Anthony Towns questionable, Brunson could see an even greater usage rate. If Towns is out or limited, the Knicks will likely lean heavily on Brunson to create offense both as a scorer and playmaker. Given his ability to take over games, he should comfortably clear 25 points.

-Philadelphia’s Defensive Struggles The 76ers allow 113.5 PPG on the season and have struggled in recent matchups against elite scoring guards. Their last 10 opponents have averaged 117.9 PPG, showing that their defense has been far from elite. Given Brunson’s skillset and volume, he’s in a prime spot to take advantage of this shaky defense.

Brunson has already shown he can torch the Sixers, and with potential extra offensive responsibility, taking 25+ points (-194) provides a safer alternative to his standard 26.5 line while maintaining great value for this parlay.

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Leg 3: Rockets Alt Spread -4.5 (-194) vs. Spurs

For the fourth leg of this parlay, I’m taking the Houston Rockets to cover an alternate spread of -4.5 (-194) instead of the full -9-point line. With Victor Wembanyama out, the San Antonio Spurs are significantly weaker, and Houston has the clear edge in multiple key areas, including rebounding and Western Conference play.

Pick Breakdown:

-Spurs’ Struggles Without Wembanyama: San Antonio has been much worse without Victor Wembanyama, who leads the team in points (24.3), rebounds (11), assists (3.7), and blocks (3.8). His absence leaves a major gap on both ends of the floor, and the Spurs are already struggling, riding a three-game losing streak.

-Houston’s Western Conference Strength: The Rockets have been one of the more consistent teams in the West, boasting a 21-14 record against Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Spurs have struggled against divisional foes, posting a 2-9 record against their division.

-Houston’s Rebounding Edge: The Rockets lead the Western Conference in rebounding, averaging 48.0 RPG, compared to San Antonio’s 40.9 RPG over their last 10 games. With Alperen Sengun (10.5 RPG) dominating the glass, Houston should control second-chance opportunities and limit San Antonio’s possessions.

-Offensive & Defensive Comparisons Houston’s offense is more efficient in key areas:

-The Spurs allow 13.6 made threes per game, which lines up well for a Rockets team that hits 12.2 threes per game.

-San Antonio shoots 45.9% from the field but is now without Wembanyama’s 48% shooting, barely above the 45.4% Houston allows (sixth-best in the NBA)—meaning the Rockets’ defense can contain the Spurs’ attack.

-Over the last 10 games, the Spurs have allowed 117.6 PPG, while Houston’s defense has been more reliable, giving up just 110.5 PPG.

-Recent Form & Trends

-Houston: 4-6 in their last 10 games, averaging 108.1 PPG while allowing just 110.5 PPG.

-San Antonio: 3-7 in their last 10 games, averaging 112.5 PPG but allowing 117.6 PPG—a major defensive liability.

-The Rockets have already won two of the three head-to-head matchups this season, with their most recent victory coming in a 127-100 blowout in Houston.

With Houston’s rebounding advantage, defensive strength, and San Antonio’s struggles without Wembanyama, the Rockets should comfortably cover the -4.5 alternate spread (-194) while reducing the risk of a backdoor cover on the full -9 line.

SAS vs HOU Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Leg 4: Amen Thompson Over 8.5 Rebounds (-152) vs. Spurs

For the final leg of this parlay, I’m taking Amen Thompson to grab over 8.5 rebounds (-152). The absence of Victor Wembanyama, who has averaged 11 rebounds per game against Houston this season, leaves a massive void in the paint. This gives Thompson an excellent opportunity to dominate the glass.

Pick Breakdown:

-Increased Rebounding Opportunities Without Wembanyama Wembanyama’s presence on the boards has been crucial for San Antonio, as he averaged 11.0 rebounds in three games against Houston this season. Without him, the Spurs will struggle to control the paint, providing Thompson with additional rebounding chances.

-Thompson’s Recent Rebounding Form Over his last seven games, Thompson has averaged 9.1 rebounds per game, regularly playing 30+ minutes per contest. He’s gone over this number in six straight games. In matchups where he has seen extended playing time, his rebounding numbers have been even stronger:

-Last game vs Milwaukee Bucks: nine rebounds

-Feb 22 vs Utah Jazz: nine rebounds

-Feb 12 vs Phoenix Suns: 10 rebounds

-Feb 9 vs Toronto Raptors: 10 rebounds

With the Spurs missing their best rebounder and Houston leading the Western Conference in rebounding (48.0 RPG), Thompson is set up for another strong night on the glass.

-Houston’s Rebounding Advantage The Rockets already lead the West in rebounding (48.0 RPG), with Alperen Sengun (10.5 RPG) and Thompson (8.1 RPG) controlling the interior. San Antonio, on the other hand, has averaged just 40.9 rebounds over its last 10 games, a number that is likely to drop further without Wembanyama. The Spurs also allow the fourth-most boards in the NBA at 46.6 RPG.

-Recent Trends

-San Antonio’s last 10 opponents have averaged 117.6 PPG, leading to more rebounding chances.

-Houston has outrebounded the Spurs in all three matchups this season.

-Thompson has hit at least nine rebounds in six straight games.

With Wembanyama out and the Spurs lacking rebounding presence, Thompson should comfortably clear 8.5 rebounds in what sets up to be a high-opportunity game for him on the glass.

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2-Game, 4-Leg Parlay Payout: +615 Odds

This four-leg parlay builds on statistical advantages and recent trends, culminating in +615 total odds. With Philadelphia’s offensive struggles, Brunson’s scoring consistency, Houston’s rebounding dominance, and Thompson’s strong glass presence, each pick presents a high-value edge. Given matchups and injuries, this parlay offers a strong mix of safe and strategic plays.