Best NBA Bets Wednesday, January 28: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight

Nine games on the board for January 28, and the slate is loaded with landmines. We’ve got one back end of a back-to-back (New York), three front ends (Atlanta, Charlotte, and Minnesota), and a couple of injury reports that are basically doing the handicapping for us.

Also, we’re not tiptoeing right now: 31-21 this season (59.6%) after going 1-1 yesterday and winning 4 of the last 5. That’s the kind of run where I’m going to keep firing when the data stacks cleanly. Tonight, two games separate themselves from the noise.

NBA Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Jan. 28

Picks curated by the SportsGrid Analytics Team, utilizing proprietary 5-star models and Blitz data. Attack the Paint with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.

Best Bet: Toronto Raptors -1.5 (3 units)

Where to Watch the Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks Tonight

• • Arena: Scotiabank Arena

• • Location: Toronto, ON

• • Date: January 28, 2026

• • Time: 07:30 PM ET

• • Where to Watch: NBA League Pass or local broadcast

NBA Betting Odds Today: Raptors vs. Knicks Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities

Odds as of January 28, 2026, at 11:25 AM ET

This is a schedule-and-trend sandwich, and I’m taking the side that isn’t running on fumes. Toronto is 7-3 against the spread in their last ten, while New York is 5-5 in that same window. Now layer in the spot. The Knicks are on zero days rest, and the back end of a back-to-back, and they’ve gone 8-13 (38.1%) on back-to-back back ends since 2025 with an average margin of -3.9. That’s the profile of a team that shows up a half-step late.

Toronto, meanwhile, is coming off two days’ rest, and yes, they traveled 1,115.8 miles into this one, but they’ve been cashing anyway. They just covered as an 11-point dog at Oklahoma City in a 103-101 win. The market is also basically calling this a coin flip, with Kalshi at 52% Toronto, and I’m fine paying the short price when the rest edge is this clean.

Expert Pick: Miami Heat -3.0 (2 units)

Where to Watch the Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic Tonight

• • Arena: Kaseya Center

• • Location: Miami, FL

• • Date: January 28, 2026

• • Time: 07:30 PM ET

• • Where to Watch: NBA League Pass or local broadcast

NBA Betting Odds Today: Heat vs. Magic Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities

Odds as of January 28, 2026, at 11:25 AM ET

I’m laying it with Miami because the recent spread form and the injury context both lean Heat, and the number is still manageable. Miami is 6-4 against the spread in its last ten, while Orlando is 3-7. That’s not a small gap. It’s a consistent one. The Magic have also been getting handled by Cleveland in their last two, losing 119-105 and 114-98, and failing to cover both times.

Now the availability. Orlando has Franz Wagner (out), and Miami has Tyler Herro (out), but the Heat have still been finding ways to cash tickets. They just covered in Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog in a 111-102 win, and they’re stepping into game one of a four-game home stand with two days’ rest. Orlando is on one day of rest and finishing game two of a two-game road trip. Kalshi is also aligned with the favorite at 57% Miami, which matches the moneyline math and keeps me comfortable that we’re not stepping in front of a sharp market fade.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

• • 3 units: Toronto Raptors -1.5

• • 2 units: Miami Heat -3.0

I’m not trying to be a hero on a nine-game slate. I’m trying to be right. Toronto gets the rest edge in a brutal Knicks spot, and Miami gets the cleaner spread profile against an Orlando team that hasn’t been covering. Ride with me or fade me. Either way, I’ll be back tomorrow with the receipts. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

The SportsGrid NBA Betting Team is a collaborative unit of betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable sharp betting insights. Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 28.