TST Best Bets: May 17, 2026

The final spot in the NBA Conference Finals is up for grabs tonight, as the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers face off in what should be a thrilling Game 7 matchup. 

It’s been a rollercoaster ride of a season for the Pistons, who shocked the world by winning 60 games in the regular season to take the top seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Their playoff run first looked to set up for disaster, as they fell down 3-1  to the Orlando Magic before pulling off the unlikely comeback to escape the first round. 

Detroit handily took the first two games of this series, looking like the dominant team they have been all year, before dropping three straight to Cleveland, setting up a Game 6 with their playoff lives on the line. 

The Cavs have been on the doorstep of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals since they traded for  Donovan Mitchell, but looked poised to finally break through with a mid-season acquisition of James Harden. 

Cleveland did not look like the juggernaut many expected them to be in the first round, going seven with a fledgling Toronto Raptors team, but were able to go up 3-2 on Detroit through a vintage Game 5 performance from Harden. 

The Pistons took Game 6 decisively after Mitchell laid an egg, shooting 6-for-20 from the field, setting up an epic Game 7 to close out the second round of the NBA Playoffs. 

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First Pick: Detroit Pistons -1 over Cleveland Cavaliers – First Quarter Spread

Rundown: We’re going with an unorthodox pick here for TST Best Bets, betting a quarter spread instead of the result of the game. Why?

The major storyline for the Cavs this postseason has been their stark difference in performance at home vs. away. 

Before Game 5 of this series, Cleveland was undefeated at home and winless on the road during these playoffs. 

During a road Game 7, expect Cleveland to come out slow as they look to adjust. 

The Pistons have led after one quarter in five of six games so far in this series, and in all three home games. 

Additionally, with Cade Cunningham typically in all or most of every first quarter, the opening frame is the most likely quarter for the Pistons to win. 

Cunningham has been absolutely clutch in the biggest moments of his team’s postseason, shooting 11-for-20 from three in the past two games, and his strong start should help the Pistons take a strong lead after the first quarter. 

Second Pick: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – Over 205

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

May 15, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Marcus Sasser (25) celebrates after hitting a three point basket against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second half in game six of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena

Rundown: The under is often the smart pick in a Game 7, as the nerves of do-or-die basketball combined with the refs being more willing to swallow their whistle can result in low-scoring slugfests to end a series like this. 

However, the total set at 205 is just too low to pass up on in this spot, especially when the over is 3-1 in the last four games of this series. 

In both team’s respective Game 7s in the first round, the over hit, and the starpower from both teams is a big reason why. 

While Harden’s playoff reputation is extremely hit or miss, Cleveland has the 7th all-time leader in playoff points per game in Mitchell, who is unlikely to end the postseason with back-to-back low-scoring games. While the Pistons do not have much offensively outside of Cunningham, he is proven to be able to drop ridiculous numbers even in games when he gets nothing from his supporting cast, like his 39-point performance in Game 5. 

Expect a semi-high scoring affair, as the Pistons edge the Cavs out in a close one.