NCAAB · 1 hour ago

2026 NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for Every Saturday March Madness Game

David Connelly

Host · Writer

We’ve got a loaded Friday evening slate in the NCAA Tournament, featuring a full lineup of March Madness matchups to keep the action rolling! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting day of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

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#9 Saint Louis vs. #1 Michigan

Those who aren’t as tuned into the sport throughout the season may have seen Saint Louis on Thursday night and believe they are a legitimate threat to this Michigan team in the second round. The bigger picture tells a slightly different story, as the Billikens limped into this field with four losses to teams outside KenPom’s top 65 over their final eight games. We’re going to call the blowout win over Georgia a matchup anomaly and back the Wolverines at a bit of a discount here, given Saint Louis’s jump in metrics from Thursday’s performance.

The Pick: Michigan -12.5 (-120)

#6 Louisville vs. #3 Michigan State

Louisville looked great for most of its first-round win over South Florida, until it came down to protecting the lead. The Cardinals were outscored 32-15 in the final ten minutes of the game, nearly blowing an insurmountable lead down the stretch. It still feels like they desperately miss Mikel Brown running the show for them, and that may get exposed a bit more by a more capable opponent in Michigan State. We’ll lay it here with Sparty.

The Pick: Michigan State -4.5 (-110)

#9 TCU vs. #1 Duke

TCU has two things that bode well in March: A desire to muck things up and plenty of collegiate experience. Head coach Jamie Dixon has been around the block, and he will have his guys ready to make this one as ugly as possible for Duke, the same way they were able to take Ohio State out of their offensive rhythm and get to this matchup. We’re going to back the ugly pooch here and take the points with the Horned Frogs, especially after how the Blue Devils looked against Siena.

The Pick: TCU +11.5 (-110)

#10 Texas A&M vs. #2 Houston

Houston’s steady playstyle makes them feel so matchup-proof against lesser opponents. Their ability to grind you down for a full forty minutes and avoid so many of the mistakes you see teams make that lead to upsets makes them such a difficult matchup in the first weekend. Texas A&M was the beneficiary of facing a Saint Mary’s team that was rumored to be battling a team illness, so their dominant win in the first round may be slightly flattering. We’ll take the Cougars on the spread in a rematch of a second-round bout from two years ago.

The Pick: Houston -10.5 (-110)

#11 Texas vs. #3 Gonzaga

The Zags took an ugly one over Kennesaw State to advance, advancing on an off-shooting night where they were just three-for-18 from beyond the arc. That won’t fly against a hot Texas team that already has two NCAA Tournament wins under its belt. Head coach Sean Miller has them playing their best basketball at the perfect time here. Take the points with the Longhorns as they should keep things close against a Gonzaga team that may not be as battle-tested as other top seeds in this field.

The Pick: Texas +5.5 (-102)

#11 VCU vs. #3 Illinois

Illinois’s offense was in full flow against Penn on Thursday, pouring in 105 points in the rout. We are just going to go back to the well on their team total as KenPom continues to grade the Fighting Illini as the best offense in the KenPom era. While VCU showed incredible heart in pulling off the second-largest comeback in NCAA Tournament history over North Carolina, they don’t have the horses to compete with Illinois’s explosive offense. Get behind one of the most efficient units in the sport right now and go over on their team total.

The Pick: Illinois TT o81.5 (-120)

#5 Vanderbilt vs. #4 Nebraska

They say guard play matters in the NCAA Tournament, and it certainly did for Vanderbilt in their opening round win over McNeese. After going down double-digits early in the first half, superstar guard Tyler Tanner willed them back into the game and helped them avoid the first-round upset at the hands of the Cowboys. We give the backcourt advantage against the Commodores in this one, and we could see them take over in pivotal moments like they did on Thursday. Back them to get it done on a narrow point spread here.

The Pick: Vanderbilt -1.5 (-110)