NCAAB · 1 year ago

5 Best Bets for College Basketball Saturday: Home Cookin’

David Connelly

Host · Writer

Virginia Tech (-1.5) vs. Wake Forest
Wake Forest has proven all season incapable of winning a meaningful road game. The Demon Deacons are an abysmal 1-8 away from home this season, and we don't see that changing any time soon. For all of Virginia Tech's flaws this season, they have done well at home recently, winning four of five, with the only loss being a ten-point defeat to Duke. Expect the Hokies to look to make a statement here and avenge their blowout defeat to Wake Forest from back in December
Baylor (-5.5) vs. Kansas
This is a total fade of Kansas without Kevin McCullar going forward. The Jayhawks clearly looked like a different team against BYU without him on the court, and we expect that to continue against a strong Baylor team. Bill Self's squad already lacks the depth necessary to put together a complete 40 minutes as a team, with just 25 percent of his minutes coming from his reserves, so we're willing to back the Bears here.
Idaho State (-1.5) vs. Northern Colorado
We've got another fade spot here. As most mid-major conferences do, the Big Sky plays two slates of games within 48 hours, with one being on Thursday night and the other on Saturday. For Northern Colorado, it's the backend of a weekend road trip that began Thursday night with an overtime loss to Weber State. It's the third time this season that the Bears have kicked off a road trip with an overtime game followed by another away game. In each of the second legs on their back-to-backs, they have failed to cover the spread. Back the rested Idaho State Bengals on their home court Saturday.
Northwestern (-3.5) vs. Iowa
Iowa has proven too many times this season that they can't pull off a win over a quality team on the road. It happened for the first time against Michigan State two weeks ago, and that's really been all they've had to show for when it comes to road efforts. The Wildcats have done well to defend Welsh-Ryan Arena this season with a 14-1 home record. Sometimes it's as simple as home/road splits, and that's what we're going with here.
Denver/St. Thomas Over 154.5
While this one may feel scary with the Tommies playing at such a snail's pace typically, it's important to look back at what happened the first time these two met to get some context. The 73 possessions in their original meeting in early February was the most possessions in a game for St. Thomas this season, meaning they felt comfortable running with the rampant Pioneers. Denver's going to want to fly and play zero defense, and we're willing to take this over since St. Thomas will likely oblige to the tempo.
Virginia Tech (-1.5) vs. Wake Forest
Wake Forest has proven all season incapable of winning a meaningful road game. The Demon Deacons are an abysmal 1-8 away from home this season, and we don't see that changing any time soon. For all of Virginia Tech's flaws this season, they have done well at home recently, winning four of five, with the only loss being a ten-point defeat to Duke. Expect the Hokies to look to make a statement here and avenge their blowout defeat to Wake Forest from back in December
Baylor (-5.5) vs. Kansas
This is a total fade of Kansas without Kevin McCullar going forward. The Jayhawks clearly looked like a different team against BYU without him on the court, and we expect that to continue against a strong Baylor team. Bill Self's squad already lacks the depth necessary to put together a complete 40 minutes as a team, with just 25 percent of his minutes coming from his reserves, so we're willing to back the Bears here.