NCAAB · 2 years ago

March Madness Bubble Report: Games To Watch This Weekend

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

10. NC State at Pittsburgh - Saturday
The Pitt Panthers knocked off Boston College and Florida State convincingly, keeping their at-large hopes alive. They have an outside shot at getting a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, which would likely take the potential for any damaging losses off of the table. SportsGrid lists Pitt as one of the “First Four Out” squads, and this game is tricky. NC State has talent, but beating them at home only avoids disaster; they won’t be able to help themselves here. Pittsburgh probably needs a win over Clemson, UNC, or Duke in the ACC Tournament to feel good on Selection Sunday.

Final Four Odds: Pittsburgh +9500 | NC State +15000
1. Texas A&M at Ole Miss - Saturday
Texas A&M and Ole Miss are listed as “Next Four Out” teams in SportsGrid’s bracketology projections. The Texas A&M Aggies knocked off Georgia and Mississippi State to keep their hopes alive, but they still have several bad losses on their record. A win at Ole Miss would give Texas A&M another Quad One victory. The Aggies are currently listed with a 45% chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Ole Miss lost midweek to the Georgia Bulldogs to put their NCAA Tournament odds on life-support. The Rebels must win this game and probably grab a couple more in the SEC Tournament.

Final Four Odds: Texas A&M +9500 | Ole Miss +11000

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2. Illinois at Iowa - Sunday
The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Illinois Fighting Illini in a key Big Ten contest on Saturday evening. Iowa has rocketed up bracketology projections in the past month and is not listed as the first team out of the field in SportsGrid’s bracketology projections. They have won four of their past five games, and a win at home versus a good Illinois squad would likely put them in the Big Ten Tournament.

Final Four Odds: Ilinois +650 | Ole Miss +9500
3. UConn at Providence - Saturday
A loss at home to the Villanova Wildcats dropped Providence onto the cut line, and the Friars are listed as a “Last Four In” team. They play host to the UConn Huskies on Saturday afternoon, representing a clear opportunity. A victory would put the Friars into the Big Dance. A loss would send them to the Big East Tournament, likely needing a pair of victories to have a shot at an at-large bid.

Final Four Odds: UConn +110 | Providence +10000
4. Creighton at Villanova - Saturday
Villanova is in a similar spot as Providence. The Wildcats are on the bubble and host a top-end Big East squad on Saturday. With a win over Creighton, Villanova would head to the Big East Tournament feeling good about their chances of being called on Selection Sunday. A loss to the Blue Jays would make a pair of wins in Madison Square Garden a likely necessity. The Wildcats have three Quad 3 losses but top 25 predictive metrics and four Quad 1 victories (this would be a fifth).

Final Four Odds: Creighton +500 | Villanova +4100
5. Utah at Oregon - Saturday
The Utah Utes are now listed as a “Last Four In” team on SportsGrid’s projections, but their bid is in significant danger after a damaging loss on the road at Oregon State. That defeat gives them a 2-8 road record, and the game Saturday at Oregon is now a must-win. Utah needs a victory in Eugene and, likely, a pair of neutral-court wins at the PAC-12 Tournament to feel remotely safe on Selection Sunday. Teams on the bubble cannot afford the kind of loss Utah suffered against the Beavers, so they must bounce back quickly against the Ducks.

Final Four Odds: Utah +4900 | Oregon +7000
6. New Mexico at Utah State - Saturday
After falling at Boise State, New Mexico took care of business with a comfortable win over Fresno State. That was a game they could not lose. The game at Utah State could punch their ticket and remove any doubt about an at-large selection. New Mexico is listed as a “Last Four Byes” team according to SportsGrid’s projections, and Utah State is a Quad One team that is safely in the field. New Mexico will be underdogs, and a victory here will remove them from the bubble. A loss would leave them just 10-8 in the Mountain West and make a decent performance in the highly competitive Mountain West Tournament a requirement.

Final Four Odds: New Mexico +3800

College Basketball Links: March Madness Bracketology | Bubble Watch
7. Memphis at Florida Atlantic - Saturday
You remember the Florida Atlantic Owls. They went on a magical run to the Final Four and nearly earned a spot in the National Championship Game just one year ago. After that historic season, the Owls find themselves on the bubble, hoping to earn a place back in the Big Dance to try and repeat the feat. They took care of Tulane and North Texas last week, avoiding disaster. Now, they host Memphis and could use the win to remove doubt about an at-large selection. FAU is listed as one of the “Last Four Byes,” but getting swept by Memphis and dropping to 13-5 in the AAC would be problematic.

Final Four Odds: FAU +2800 | Memphis +15000
8. Clemson at Wake Forest - Saturday
Just a short time ago, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons shocked the Duke Blue Devils and appeared to have likely secured a bid in the NCAA Tournament if they could take care of business down the stretch. The Demon Deacons have failed to take care of business. Instead, they have fallen apart with losses to Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Wake Forest is now on the wrong side of the bubble, and a loss to Clemson would give them four straight defeats and a 10-10 conference record. Clemson is fighting for seeding in the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. They could climb as high as a five-seed in the Big Dance with a good showing.

Final Four Odds: Clemson +2800 | Wake Forest +6500
9. Colorado at Oregon State - Saturday
The Colorado Buffaloes have won five straight games and placed themselves in the bubble conversation. This contest at Oregon State falls into the “cannot lose” category. They will not boost their resume with a win over the Beavers but will avoid tanking it. A loss would remove the goodwill they’ve earned over the past three weeks, and they would need a great showing in the PAC-12 Tournament to get a bid.

Final Four Odds: Colorado +3700

College Basketball Links: March Madness Bracketology | Bubble Watch
10. NC State at Pittsburgh - Saturday
The Pitt Panthers knocked off Boston College and Florida State convincingly, keeping their at-large hopes alive. They have an outside shot at getting a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, which would likely take the potential for any damaging losses off of the table. SportsGrid lists Pitt as one of the “First Four Out” squads, and this game is tricky. NC State has talent, but beating them at home only avoids disaster; they won’t be able to help themselves here. Pittsburgh probably needs a win over Clemson, UNC, or Duke in the ACC Tournament to feel good on Selection Sunday.

Final Four Odds: Pittsburgh +9500 | NC State +15000
1. Texas A&M at Ole Miss - Saturday
Texas A&M and Ole Miss are listed as “Next Four Out” teams in SportsGrid’s bracketology projections. The Texas A&M Aggies knocked off Georgia and Mississippi State to keep their hopes alive, but they still have several bad losses on their record. A win at Ole Miss would give Texas A&M another Quad One victory. The Aggies are currently listed with a 45% chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Ole Miss lost midweek to the Georgia Bulldogs to put their NCAA Tournament odds on life-support. The Rebels must win this game and probably grab a couple more in the SEC Tournament.

Final Four Odds: Texas A&M +9500 | Ole Miss +11000

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March Madness Bubble Report: Games To Watch This Weekend

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