March Madness Bubble Report: Thursday

10. Virginia (-4.5) vs. Boston College

The Virginia Cavaliers are the three-seed in the ACC Tournament, but they are on the bubble and need a win to avoid a very nervous Selection Sunday. A victory over Boston College won’t move the needle, but a loss would be a bad mark on a resume that cannot afford any more of them. Virginia is listed as a “Last Four Byes” team if the field were selected today, but they have only two Quad One wins and a NET ranking of only 52, so a bad loss today would make things very interesting. The Cavaliers are slight favorites.

2. Marquette (-3.5) vs. Villanova

The Marquette Golden Eagles are safely in the NCAA Tournament field and are jockeying for a two-seed, probably needing a win today to secure one of the top lines in the Big Dance. Villanova is squarely on the bubble and likely faces a “do or die” scenario in Madison Square Garden today. The Wildcats are currently a “First Four Out” team in most projections, but a win today would be a massive step toward securing a bid.

Marquette Big East Odds: +850

3. Michigan State (-6.5) vs. Minnesota

The Michigan State Spartans are in freefall and have gone from safely in the field to a bubble team. They need a win today over Minnesota to feel good on Selection Sunday. Michigan State enters today’s game in Minneapolis as a 6.5-point favorite. The two sides split the season, with both squads winning at home. MSU is currently projected to be ten-seed and trending downwards. This game begins at noon on the Big Ten Network.

4. Creighton (-7.5) vs. Providence

The Creighton Bluejays are securely in the field of 68, and a strong run in the Big East Tournament could move them as high as a two-seed in the bracket. They take on the Providence Friars in Madison Square Garden on Thursday. Providence is on the bubble and likely needs a win over the Bluejays to get a bid. Providence is currently a 7.5-point underdog in this contest but has already beaten Creighton once this season. The game tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

Creighton Big East Tournament Odds: +340

5. St. John's (-4.5) vs. Seton Hall

St. John’s and Seton Hall clash in Madison Square Garden in one of the more pivotal bubble matchups of the day. Both teams could use a win to feel good about things on Selection Sunday. St. John’s is currently projected as an 11-seed and a “Last Four In” squad, while Seton Hall is listed as a ten-seed. The Red Storm are favored by 4.5 points. The matchup tips off at 2:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

6. Mississippi State (-4.5) vs. LSU

The Mississippi State Bulldogs would probably be in the field if the NCAA Tournament were selected today. They are, by most projections, included as a ten-seed and would safely make the field, but a loss to LSU today could change all of that. The LSU Tigers have come on strong recently, while the Mississippi State Bulldogs have lost four straight games and are in reverse. Mississippi State is favored in this game and needs a win to wrap up a bid. This one falls in the “can’t lose” category.

7. Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. Ole Miss

Ole Miss’ late-season skid leaves them on the fringes of the bubble conversation, and the Rebels probably need a run to the SEC Tournament final to have a legitimate shot at the NCAA Tournament. SportsGrid lists Texas A&M as a “First Four Out” team and needs to beat Ole Miss and then likely win one more game to have a realistic chance of being in the Big Dance. The Aggies hammered Ole Miss recently and are favored in today’s contest. This one begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.

8. Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest (-1.5)

Pittsburgh and Wake Forest are both squarely on the bubble, and this could be a “play-in game” for the NCAA Tournament. The Demon Deacons are slight favorites after the two sides split their regular-season matchups. Wake Forest has a NET ranking of 36 but only one Quad One victory. Pittsburgh has a 3-5 Quad One record but a NET ranking of 45. This one should be fascinating, and the stakes for both programs are huge. The game tips off at 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

9. Colorado (-3.5) vs. Utah

The day's final game to tip-off could be a critically important one as Colorado takes on Utah in the PAC-12 Tournament in Las Vegas. Colorado is likely one of the “Last Four In” the field right now, and they need a victory over Utah to keep their hopes alive. The Utes have faded from at-large consideration but could get themselves back into the conversation with a strong run in the PAC-12 Tournament. Colorado is listed as a favorite in this one.

10. Virginia (-4.5) vs. Boston College

The Virginia Cavaliers are the three-seed in the ACC Tournament, but they are on the bubble and need a win to avoid a very nervous Selection Sunday. A victory over Boston College won’t move the needle, but a loss would be a bad mark on a resume that cannot afford any more of them. Virginia is listed as a “Last Four Byes” team if the field were selected today, but they have only two Quad One wins and a NET ranking of only 52, so a bad loss today would make things very interesting. The Cavaliers are slight favorites.