NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Tennessee vs Houston Odds, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
Chalky futures bettors rejoice! ‘Tis the season of number-one seeds. The first two Elite Eight showdowns went down on Saturday night, with both top seeds advancing to the Final Four. Next up, the Houston Cougars take on the Tennessee Volunteers in the Midwest Region Final.
The Cougars enter Sunday’s tilt as -3 favorites, but that line has ticked up as we approach tip-off. They initially opened as -2.5 chalk, and some shops have moved the number up to -3.5 already. Not surprisingly, the total is also on the move. Some books had it as short as -122.5, but we’re seeing -124.5, as tip approaches.
Sharp bettors already got the best of the number, but there could still be an edge in getting a piece of Houston and the over.
Where to Watch Tennessee vs Houston
- Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- Date: Sunday, March 30
- Where to Watch: CBS
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Spread: Houston -3 | Total: 124.5
- Moneyline: HOU -160 | TEN +135
- SportsGrid Matchup Page
Please be aware that betting odds may change after the publication of this article.
Tennessee vs Houston Best Bet: Houston -3
Houston is one of the hottest teams in the country. They haven’t lost since February 1, winning 16 straight games ahead of the Elite Eight. The Cougars’ record against the spread isn’t nearly as impressive, going 7-7-2 across their winning streak. Still, we can’t look past this more reliable trend ahead of Sunday’s tilt. The Cougars often faced double-digit spreads across their winning streak. But the Cougars aren’t the type of team to blow you out of the water offensively. Instead, they take a more methodical approach on offense while suffocating teams with their unrelenting defense. As a result, they are tailor-made to cover short spreads. At least, that much is reflected in their season-long record. When favored by five points or fewer, the Cougars are 4-1-2 against the spread. Moreover, their only ATS loss under those circumstances came back in November versus the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Cougars are made for these types of games, and we expect them to prove it again at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Tennessee vs Houston Best Total Bet: Over 124.5
There’s no way around it. The Tennessee Volunteers and Houston Cougars are defense-first basketball teams. Houston sits first in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, with the Vols close behind in third. However, this total is insulting to both teams’ offensive capabilities. Houston doesn’t play with pace, but they are effective on offense. They are the best three-point shooting team in the country and average 74.2 points per game. Tennessee doesn’t stand out in one particular facet on offense. Still, the Vols have a 57.3% true shooting percentage and average 74.7 points per game.
Additionally, Tennessee contests are averaging 145.3 points per game over their last nine, while the Cougars have recorded 72 or more points in five of their previous six. Defense will be the prevalent theme, but that doesn’t preclude this game from exceeding its modest total. It might come down to free throws, but we’re betting Houston versus Tennessee eclipses 124.5 points.
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Tennessee Best Player Bet: Zakai Zeigler to Record 10+ Assists +350
One theme we’ve discerned from the past few Vols games is that Zakai Zeigler will do whatever it takes to win. Scoring remains the priority, but the Tennessee guard has taken a more generous approach to spreading the ball around. Zeigler has 10 or more assists in two of his last three, including an average of 15.0 points per game. Chipping in with the occasional rebound, some bettors might gravitate towards the over on his points+rebounds+assists prop. However, we see the most value in backing Zeigler to maintain his giving mood. Backing him to record 10 or more assists comes with an enticing +350 price tag.
Houston Best Player Bet: L.J. Cryer Over 15.5 Points
Inevitably, L.J. Cryer couldn’t replicate the 30 points he put up in the second round. But dropping five in 36 minutes versus Purdue has moved him too far to the opposite end of the spectrum. Cryer remains the Cougars’ leading scorer, averaging 15.3 points per game. But he’s ratcheted that benchmark higher over the past few weeks. Since the start of the month, the Cougars guard is up to 17.6 points per game, while hitting the 20-point plateau in five of nine contests. Predictably, that correlates with increased usage and productivity, supporting Cryer’s increased scoring is coming from a sustainable place. It’s tempting to take a shot with him to reach 20, but we have complete confidence in Cryer’s ability to surpass 15.5.
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