12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Based on AP Poll

9. Tennessee Volunteers at 8. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Alabama Crimson Tide fell to number seven in the AP Poll after a shocking defeat to the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday evening. Alabama earns the eight seed in this projection and they now have no margin for error if they are to make the College Football Playoff. Indeed, another loss would eliminate their ability to host a playoff game in the first round.

The Crimson Tide would host the Tennessee Volunteers in a first-round matchup. Of course, these two schools will play next weekend (October 19) in Knoxville, a game that has taken on an increased sense of urgency with both losing to unranked teams this past Saturday. The loser at Neyland Stadium could be eliminated from contention.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten Champion)

The Ohio State Buckeyes waltzed past the Iowa Hawkeyes with a strong defensive performance and a dominant third quarter, rolling to a 35-7 victory. After leading only 7-0 at the half, the Buckeyes opened things up in the third quarter and cruised to a strong finish. OSU is now 5-0 and they have allowed only 34 points but they face their first serious test of the season with a clash at Oregon in Eugene.

The Ducks are one of the few teams that have the athletes to test whether Will Howard can perform under pressure and whether the Ohio State defense can be had. The Buckeyes had nine first-place votes and are right behind Texas. They would wait in the Rose Bowl for the winner of the seven versus ten game.

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3. Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion)

For the second straight week, the Miami Hurricanes flirted with disaster and survived. The Hurricanes trailed the Cal Golden Bears 35-10 in the second half and roared back for a thrilling 39-38 win in Berkeley to remain unbeaten and reach 6-0. Cam Ward had more than 270 yards of offense by himself...in the fourth quarter alone! That is the most in any quarter for one player in at least the last seven seasons. Miami’s defense is now a real concern though after getting gashed repeatedly for explosive plays by Cal but the ‘Canes continue to find a way to win. They have a bye week before playing at Louisville. The Hurricanes are ranked sixth and would play the winner of the six versus 11 seed. 

4. Iowa State Cyclones - Big 12 Champion

The Big 12 is a jumbled mess with at least seven teams that feel they have a legitimate chance to win the league and earn the auto-bid and first-round bye. Iowa State knocked off Baylor to remain unbeaten. That gets them the nod as the four-seed in this projection as they sit ranked 11th in the AP Poll (up five spots). They will get a test this weekend as they play at West Virginia in Primetime. The Mountaineers are suddenly hot but the Cyclones remain 3.5-point favorites. Iowa State would play the winner of the five versus 12 game in the quarterfinals

12. Boise State Broncos at 5. Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks remain unbeaten after overwhelming the Michigan State Spartans on Friday night in Eugene. The Ducks have stumbled in the red zone on offense and Dillon Gabriel has yet to show he can perform for sixty minutes against a strong opponent. We’ll learn a whole lot more about that on Saturday night as Oregon hosts Ohio State in Autzen Stadium. The Ducks are up to number three in the AP Poll and it will be fascinating to see the fallout from the clash against the Buckeyes.

Oregon is the top at-large selection in this projection. They are currently slated to play number 17 (AP Poll) Boise State in a rematch of a very hotly-contested regular season game. The winner would advance to the Fiesta Bowl to play Iowa State in the quarterfinals.

Week 7: Ohio State (-3.5) at Oregon

11. Clemson Tigers at 6. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State has not been particularly impressive but they are unbeaten and have steadily moved up to number four in the AP Poll thanks to the zero in their loss column. The Nittany Lions will finally be tested with a very interesting game at USC on Saturday night. What will happen if Penn State loses to USC and Ohio State but wins comfortably in the remaining ten games? Is that good enough to get in the field?

For now, the Nittany Lions are the projected six seed in this projection and would host 11-seed Clemson. The Clemson Tigers have earned their way back into the playoff conversation with four dominant wins in a row after losing to Georgia in week one. The Tigers outgained Florida State by more than 300 yards in Tallahassee and now play Wake Forest.

Week 7: Penn State (-4.5) at USC

10. Ole Miss Rebels at 7. Georgia Bulldogs

The Georgia Bulldogs are the projected seven seed after a comfortable win over Auburn and losses by Alabama and Tennessee. Georgia is certainly vulnerable and not as dominant on the lines of scrimmage as many assumed it would be this season. That said, for now, their only loss is a close defeat at Alabama and they have a dominant win over Clemson, which looks better by the week. UGA has Mississippi State this weekend, and then they will travel to Austin to play Texas. If they lose that game, the Bulldogs would need to beat Ole Miss and Tennessee in November to wrap up a 10-2 record and then see where the chips fall. A resume with losses at Alabama and Texas and then wins over Clemson, Ole Miss and Tennessee would still be really strong.

Georgia is currently at number five in the AP Poll (strangely, ahead of Alabama, who just beat the Bulldogs) and they would play number nine Ole Miss, the 10 seed in this projected bracket. The Rebels got beat by Kentucky but they spent the past weekend blasting South Carolina and seeing other SEC contenders lose to unranked teams. That places Ole Miss right back into the playoff mix, heading into a critical playoff eliminator clash against LSU this Saturday night.

Week 7: Ole Miss (-3.5) at LSU

9. Tennessee Volunteers at 8. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Alabama Crimson Tide fell to number seven in the AP Poll after a shocking defeat to the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday evening. Alabama earns the eight seed in this projection and they now have no margin for error if they are to make the College Football Playoff. Indeed, another loss would eliminate their ability to host a playoff game in the first round.

The Crimson Tide would host the Tennessee Volunteers in a first-round matchup. Of course, these two schools will play next weekend (October 19) in Knoxville, a game that has taken on an increased sense of urgency with both losing to unranked teams this past Saturday. The loser at Neyland Stadium could be eliminated from contention.