Army vs Navy Prediction | College Football Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
Army vs. Navy is more than a football game. It’s a celebration of America’s two greatest service academies and punctuates the end of the college football regular season. While there’s more football to look forward to in bowl season and the College Football Playoff, all eyes will be focused on the Army Black Knights trying to maintain their near-perfect season against the Navy Midshipmen. Navy’s 14-year reign ended in 2015, and it’s been mostly Army since then. The Black Knights have won six of the past eight, including two straight. The betting market has given them a decided advantage in Saturday’s battle at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.
Where to Watch Army vs Navy
- Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, MD)
- Time: Saturday, December 13 at 3:00 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: CBS
- Spread: Army -6.5 | Moneyline: Army -255 | Total: 39.5
Army vs Navy Best Bet ATS: Navy +6.5
Army’s been on one hell of a run, but a few factors are working against them in Week 16. First, Navy has an extra week to rest and prepare for this rivalry clash. Army was busy handling business in the AAC Championship Game last week, setting up Saturday’s tilt as a letdown spot. Second, Army rarely pulls away in these games. Only two of their past six wins have come by more than six points. The average margin of victory across the Black Knights’ last six wins is 6.0 points. Finally, the betting market has consistently overestimated Army’s abilities. Across their previous six contests, the Black Knights are 2-4 against the spread, including 1-3 as the favorites. Conversely, Navy has seen a late-season surge, covering two of its past three. Don’t expect Army to get too far in front; we like Navy’s chances of covering on Saturday.
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Army vs Navy Best Bet Total: Under 39.5
The under in the Army-Navy clash is one of the most reliable bets in college football. There haven’t been more than 38 points scored in this game since 2013. These teams’ playing style and run-heavy approach support should also fall short of the total. Granted, the Midshipmen had an early-season scoring surge, but they’ve returned to normal range over the past few weeks. Navy prioritizes hanging onto the football and sticking to the ground, running the third-fewest plays per game in the FBS. Predictably, we’ve seen decreased scoring due to their possession-driven ways. The Midshipmen have fallen beneath the total in four straight, with only one of those games eclipsing 35 points. The Black Knights aren’t that far ahead. They rank 122nd out of 134 teams in terms of plays per game, also correlating with three unders over their last five games. Those trends persist in Week 16, with this one staying below 39.5 points.
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Army vs Navy Best Player Props
Navy Midshipmen Blake Horvath Over 94.5 Passing Yards
Navy has gotten away from throwing the football over its recent sample. But if they want to hang with the Black Knights, Blake Horvath must return to his football-throwing ways. The junior has thrown for 88 yards or fewer in three of his last four games, which is a substantial deviation from what he was doing at the start of the season. Through the first six games of 2024, Horvath had thrown for at least 108 yards in every contest and had averaged 148.0 passing yards per game. While he never attempted more than 15 passes, Horvath was incredibly efficient. The Midshipmen quarterback completed 63.9% of his throws for 12.3 yards per pass attempt. Those benchmarks have cratered over his recent sample, implying that Horvath is a progression candidate heading into Week 16. Across his last four games, Horvath is down to a 50.0% completion percentage for just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. We’re predicting meaningful progression from Horvath on Saturday, which should be enough to send him over 94.5 passing yards.
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