Big 12 Best Bets: Week 1 of the 2024 College Football Season

The wait is finally over. Big 12 football is back, baby! 

After an underwhelming Week 0, which featured limited action and only one noteworthy contest, we have a full slate of games to dig into for the official start of the 2024 college football season. Big 12 contests are spread across three days, from Thursday to Saturday. As usual, most teams have afforded themselves the luxury of starting against lesser competition, but at least one team is jumping straight into the deep end with a marquee matchup to kick off the year. 

We have you covered for the next 15 weeks, highlighting our top betting plays for the Big 12 action. 

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Big 12 Play (1 Unit)

Utah Utes vs. Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Spread: Utes -38.5 (-108) | Thunderbirds +38.5 (-112)
Moneyline: N/A
Total: OVER 54.5 (-115) | Under 54.5 (-105)

Cameron Rising triumphantly returns to the gridiron in the Utah Utes season-opener versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. The Utes failed to generate momentum with last year’s offense, but Rising is a catalyst for improvement, enhancing Utah’s National Championship aspirations.

In his last season of action, Rising was sensational. The California native threw for over 3,000 yards in 2022, completing 64.7% of his passes for 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions.

More impressively, he positioned the Utes as one of the country’s top offensive programs. Utah finished in the top 20 in total and scoring offense, averaging 466.9 yards and 38.6 points per game. With Micah Bernard back in the fold, the Utes’ offense will take off again in 2024. 

Southern Utah was built last year. The Thunderbirds head into the upcoming campaign with a new starting quarterback under center and without their leading pass-catcher from the previous season. They also play in front of an unforgiving Rice-Eccles Stadium crowd. 

Utah will be ready to flash its full arsenal and work off some of the rust against inferior competition. The current price implies that bettors are getting a piece of Southern Utah against the spread, but our preferred play is backing Rising and the Utes to come out firing on all cylinders. The over may be worth a gander, but we’re betting on Utah’s starters playing the whole game and covering the hefty number.

Recommended Play: Utah -38.5

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Bigger 12 Play (2 Units)

UNLV Rebels vs. Houston Cougars

Spread: Rebels +2.5 (-108) | Cougars -2.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Rebels +112 | Cougars -134
Total: OVER 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)

The Houston Cougars are looking to improve on last year’s disappointing 4-8 season, but they haven’t done themselves any favors with their early-season scheduling. The Cougars are in tough to kick off the 2024 campaign, hosting the UNLV Rebels in a Saturday afternoon contest. 

The Cougars trot out a familiar offense, but that’s not necessarily good. Dual-threat quarterback Donovan Smith didn’t have much help in powering the offense. Houston finished with the second-worst total and third-worst scoring offense in the Big 12 in 2023. Things were equally bad on defense, with the Cougars giving up the second-most yards and points per game. Continuity may help them improve their offensive standing, but there are far too many unproven players on defense to expect meaningful improvement.

UNLV was able to offset some of their defensive shortcomings with a high-octane offense. The Rebels banged out 412.7 yards per game, translating to 34.4 points. Senior transfer Matthew Sluka takes over under center, with elite offensive playmakers at his disposal. Ricky White III is looking to build off last season’s 1,483 receiving-yard effort, with 12-touchdown running back Jai’Den Thomas as the primary rusher. 

The betting market has the Cougars installed as -2.5 favorites, but that’s premised on misplaced confidence. The Rebels have a significant advantage on offense, and we expect them to wield it unforgivingly. We’re betting UNLV cashes as plus-money underdogs.

Recommended Play: Rebels Moneyline +112

Biggest 12 Play (3 Units)

#8 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

Spread: Nittany Lions -8.5 (-105) | Mountaineers +8.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Nittany Lions -285 | Mountaineers +230
Total: OVER 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)

As alluded to, the West Virginia Mountaineers are forging ahead with arguably their toughest test of the year to open their season. West Virginia hosts the eighth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions, showcasing their underappreciated defense against a legitimate National Championship contender. 

West Virginia has flown under the radar in the Big 12 lately, but its defense was among the best in the conference last year. The Mountaineers held opponents to 384.3 yards per game in 2023, finishing in the top five in total defense. Although its linebackers corps may have lost a few top performers, it has the personnel to account for those losses. As a result, we’re expecting a similarly staunch defense ready to perform in the season-opener. 

The Nittany Lions can match Penn State’s defensive strength. Penn State is a defensive powerhouse, finishing last year as the top-ranked total defense in the country. That will make it hard for Garrett Greene to get anything going offensively. 

Take note: West Virginia held opponents to 18.7 points per game at Milan Puskar Stadium last season. And nearly half of those 112 total points came in a 48-34 blowout at the hands of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

This non-conference tilt will fully display the defense, and points will be hard to come by. Consequently, we’re expecting this one to fall beneath the 51.5 total. 

Recommended Play: Under 51.5

Record: 0-0-0 ($0)

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