Big 12 Best Bets: Week 6 of the 2024 College Football Season

It’s hard to believe that we’re nearly at the halfway point of the 2024 college football season. But the silver lining is that there’s still so much up for grabs in the Big 12. Six teams remain undefeated in conference action, with six more only tallying one loss. That means there’s no taking their feet off the peddle as we race toward another exciting weekend of college football action.

We’ve identified our three favorite plays from this week’s Big 12 schedule.

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Big 12 Play (1 Unit)

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arizona Wildcats

Spread: Texas Tech +6.5 (-106) | Arizona -6.5 (-114)
Moneyline: Texas Tech +190 | Arizona -235
Total: OVER 64.5 (-110) | UNDER 64.5 (-110)

The Arizona Wildcats upended the balance of the Big 12, upsetting the Utah Utes in Week 5 action. As an encore, the Wildcats host the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday, currently priced as -6.5 favorites. While the betting market has moved in favor of the hosts, we think there’s a more substantive edge in backing the Red Raiders at Arizona Stadium. 

Off to a 3-1 start, Arizona hasn’t flashed top-end offensive potential. They’ve been held to a combined 52 points over their past three outings, ailing to surpass 23 points in any of those contests. Most concerningly, they put up just 22 points against the FCS Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, following that up with seven against the Kansas State Wildcats. That lackluster output is substantiated by ineffective production, with Arizona failing to eclipse 391 total yards in any of those contests. 

Texas Tech doesn’t possess the same diminutive offense. They’ve been one of the top teams in the country, averaging the 17th most yards and the 15th most points. As usual, the Red Raiders’ offensive prowess is predicated on the passing game, with Behren Morton providing an average of 285.2 yards per game through the air. That’s without even considering Tahj Brooks’s contributions. The senior has been the cornerstone of the Red Raiders’ success, averaging 137.8 rushing yards per game while surpassing the century mark in all four games he’s played.

This is a perfect sell-high spot for Arizona. Coming off a triumphant win over a top-ranked team, they settle in versus a dangerous offensive side that can beat you via the air or ground. While there may be value in backing Texas Tech outright, we think they can cover 6.5 on the road.

Recommended Play: Texas Tech +6.5 -106 

2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 6 of College Football Season

Bigger 12 Play (2 Units)

UCF Knights vs Florida Gators

Spread: UCF -2.5 (-112) | Florida +2.5 (-108)
Moneyline: UCF -132 | Florida +110
Total: OVER 62.5 (-105) | UNDER 62.5 (-115)

Arguably, the UCF Knights face their toughest competition of the season in Week 6, traveling north for a date with the Florida Gators. The SEC competitors have looked ineffective to start the season, but even a low-level SEC team should be equipped to handle what the Knights will throw at them, particularly with the benefit of home-field advantage. We’re using this spot to back the underdog home side in a must-win game for the Gators. 

Off to a 3-1 start, UCF has yet to be tested by a team of Florida’s caliber. They took care of business against FCS and Group of 5 foes, narrowly escaping with a one-point win versus the TCU Horned Frogs in Week 3. Subsequently, they were humbled by the Colorado Buffaloes last time out, dropping a 48-21 decision despite closing as -12.5 chalk. Worse, they were coming off a Week 4 bye, giving them ample opportunity to prepare for their Big 12 counterparts. 

The Gators have alternated wins and losses this season, but we’ve seen the best they have to offer on both sides of the ball. Their defense won’t win them any championships this year, but at their best, the Gators can hang with anybody offensively. They hung 45 points on the Mississippi State Bulldogs last week, totaling over 500 yards of total offense. 

UCF doesn’t possess the defensive structure to limit Florida’s attack. We saw the Knights get exposed last week against the Buffaloes, and they don’t have the luxury of playing at home in Week 6. This is an ideal spot to back the underdog home side. Florida is a superior program in a more competitive conference, with the added benefit of home-field advantage.

Recommended Play: Florida +2.5 -108

Biggest 12 Play (3 Units)

Kansas Jayhawks vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Spread: Kansas +2.5 (-110) | Arizona State -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas +114 | Arizona -137
Total: OVER 50.5 (-110) | UNDER 50.5 (-110)

The Kansas Jayhawks set the bar too high in 2023. Coming off their best campaign since 2007, the Jayhawks hoped to run it back this season, but they’re off to a disastrous 1-4 start. Things don’t look much better ahead of Saturday’s Big 12 battle versus the Arizona State Sun Devils. 

ASU suffered a setback in their most recent outing, dropping a 30-22 decision to Texas Tech. Still, they’ve been moving the ball efficiently downfield, accumulating 30 or more points in three of four contests with an average of 409.3 yards per game. Moreover, they’ve had a week to lick their wounds and are settling in to play two straight at home. 

The Jayhawks have fewer bright spots to point to. Their offensive productivity has substantially dipped from 439.8 yards per game last year to 364.3 in 2024. Naturally, output has fallen with their diminished production. Kansas averages over ten points less per game, dropping to 23.0 this season. 

We’re not anticipating any meaningful growth from the Jayhawks any time soon. They’ve been a middling offensive team, and they are about to take on the class of the Big 12 over the coming weeks. Arizona State can use Saturday’s contest to stay in the Big 12 race, and it can rely on its offense to put some distance between itself and the Jayhawks.

Recommended Play: Arizona State -2.5 -110

Record: 12-3-0 ($1,654)

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