Big 12 Best Bets: Week 7 of the 2024 College Football Season

Things are going to get a lot messier before we have any clarity on which teams will head to the Big 12 Championship Game. Five teams are currently undefeated in conference play, with six more sitting with one loss. There are only two spots up for grabs, and winning the conference is the only guaranteed way of securing a spot in the College Football Playoff. Buckle up because things only intensify from here.

We’ve identified our three favorite plays from this week’s Big 12 schedule.

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Big 12 Play (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars

Spread: Arizona +3.5 (-120) | BYU -3.5 (-102)
Moneyline: Arizona +130 | BYU -156
Total: OVER 48.5 (-110) | UNDER 48.5 (-110)

Last week’s loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders was an inevitable flat spot for the Arizona Wildcats. But the Wildcats don’t have the luxury of sitting back and licking their wounds or they put themselves at risk of falling completely out of the Big 12 race. They’ll have to bounce back in a hurry for Week 7’s showdown against the undefeated BYU Cougars.

Defense has been one of Arizona’s most notable strengths over the past few weeks. The Wildcats held the mighty Red Raiders to just 331 yards of total offense in Week 6 and the Utah Utes to 364 yards at home the week prior. However, Arizona needs improved defensive efficiency to mask some of its offensive shortcomings. The Wildcats haven’t eclipsed 23 points in any of their past four outings. Included in that sample is a Week 2 battle against FCS Northern Arizona. 

The Cougars are off to a hot start, but their output doesn’t match their offensive production. BYU ranks 42nd in the country in scoring offense, averaging 31.0 points per game. That doesn’t match their 89th-ranked total offense that puts up just 350.5 yards. Correction is inevitable, and we expect the Cougars to crash hard over the coming weeks. 

Regression impacts BYU’s offensive outlook moving forward. They face a stiff test against an Arizona side that’s desperately trying to get back in the win column. Still, the Wildcats don’t possess the offensive skillset to run through BYU’s defense. In the end, we’re expecting a tightly contested showdown that will fall below 48.5 points.

Recommended Play: Under 48.5 -110

2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 7 of College Football Season

Bigger 12 Play (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights

Spread: Cincinnati +3.5 (-120) | UCF -3.5 (-102)
Moneyline: Cincinnati +120 | UCF -144
Total: OVER 58.5 (-112) | UNDER 58.5 (-108)

Two of the more recent Big 12 additions take to the field in Week 7. The UCF Knights host the Cincinnati Bearcats in a pivotal Big 12 contest that could shape the rest of their seasons. Both teams are sitting at 3-2 on the season and 1-1 in Big 12 play, giving the winner a distinct advantage heading into the latter part of the campaign. At the current offering, the betting market has taken a firm stance on the visitors but we think the edge lies in backing the home team in this one. 

UCF has lost two straight, but those outcomes aren’t an accurate representation of its on-field product. The Knights outgained the Colorado Buffaloes in Week 5 but lost a 48-21 decision. They followed that up by holding a potent Florida Gators side to 359 yards at home last time out. Settling back into the comforts of their own home against an inferior opponent will allow the Knights to improve that efficiency on Saturday. 

While Cincinnati has maintained its reputation as an offensive powerhouse, there are a few limiting factors heading into Week 7. First, this will be their third road game over their past four outings. Second, they are prone to getting torched on the ground. Texas Tech ran for 231 yards last time out, which was similar to what the Pittsburgh Panthers did to the Bearcats back in Week 2. Altogether, they are giving up 148.0 rushing yards per game, which plays into UCF’s offensive strengths. Finally, Cincinnati is dealing with injuries to running backs Evan Pryor and Corey Kiner, hampering their offensive abilities and taking away a much-needed dimension. 

Given the circumstances, this is an ideal spot to back the home side at a discounted price. UCF’s recent losses aren’t indicative of its play, and we’re anticipating a reversal of fortunes in the short term. Conversely, Cincinnati has outlasted its metrics. A daunting schedule and injuries to key players could prevent them from covering the spread in Central Florida. 

Recommended Play: UCF -3.5 -102

Biggest 12 Play (3 Units)

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Spread: Kansas State -3.5 (-110) | Colorado +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas State -156 | Colorado +130
Total: OVER 56.5 (-108) | UNDER 56.5 (-112)

Offense has been an undeniable strength for the Colorado Buffaloes over the past couple of seasons. Shedeur Sanders has moved the ball effectively, peaking over the past few weeks with superb efforts. That upward trajectory carries the Buffaloes into Week 7’s home battle versus the Kansas State Wildcats. 

Sanders has looked sensational and deserving of consideration in the Heisman Trophy conversation. The Buffaloes’ senior pivot has thrown for at least 290 yards in all but one game this season while completing 70.1% of his throws. More impressively, he’s touting an elite 14-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, including 9-1 over his last three games. 

Defending the pass has been an area of concern for the Wildcats. K-State was burned for 364 passing yards last time out, dropping its season average to 280.5 and ranking 115th out of 134 FBS programs. Moreover, we’ve seen their defense erode in hostile territory, with the Wildcats giving up an average of 32.5 points per game as the visitors. 

Still, we can’t discount the Wildcats’ ability to score points, and that benefits them against a lackluster Buffaloes defense. This one should turn into a track meet, with both teams scoring at will. We’re tempted to back the home underdogs in this spot, but taking the over feels like a safer play.

Recommended Play: Over 56.5

Record: 15-3-0 ($2,254)

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