Big Ten Best Bets for Week 6: B1GBets Predictions | College Football Picks

To paraphrase Steve Spurrier: “We wound up 13-13! Not very good! But there was some worse ‘un us. I guess that’s one positive way to look at it: we weren’t the worst handicapper in the betting space.” Spurrier said that after his team finished 5-11. At least we finished .500 in September.

On to October! We have eight Big Ten conference games, and all but one have a betting line of at least a touchdown. Six of the spreads are double-digits, with Michigan at Washington being the lone exception.

Last Week: 1-3 (-3 UNITS) | Overall: 13-13 (+2 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 2-5 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 7-6 (+1 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 4-1 (+4.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 7-9 (-1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 6-3 (+4 UNITS) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNITS)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

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REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 2-5 (-1.5 UNITS)

OHIO STATE -18 Iowa (DraftKings)

I’m not one to talk badly about Iowa’s defense, but they have been more vulnerable to the big play this season. Who has more explosive weapons than the Buckeyes? The two-headed backfield of Quinshon Judkins (8.3 YPC, 5 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (8.3 YPC, 5 TDs) can rival any in the country, while wideouts Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate are all averaging over 15 yards per catch with elite YAC ability. Just a true freshman (but older than 17), Smith might be the country’s best receiver. He leads Ohio State with 364 receiving yards, 19.2 yards per catch, and six total touchdowns (a 19-yard TD run on his only carry). This physical freak would be a top-10 pick if he were eligible for the 2025 NFL Draft.

Here’s the rub for the Hawkeyes. Even if the defense plays well (as they did early on against OSU in 2022), a blowout is likely in the cards (they lost 55-10 and held OSU to 5.8 YPP). Even if the offense doesn’t turn it over for short fields, their defense will probably be on the field too long. That’s why they’ve dropped their last three against ranked opponents by a score of 92-0, and they’ve lost five straight against top-5 teams from the Big Ten (Michigan, OSU, PSU) by a combined score of 180-27 (36-5.4).

Iowa UNDER 13.5 (FanDuel)

Whenever we bet on Iowa, we have to bet on the defense. The inverse is true. Whenever we bet against the Hawkeyes, we have to bet against the offense. We’ve said numerous times in our B1GBets column that Iowa’s offense is improved. It’s true. But now they’re facing an elite defense at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a veteran defensive line that in previous years would have been in the NFL by now, backed up by an elite troika of safeties in Sonny Styles, Lathan Ransom, and former Alabama star Caleb Downs, three of their top four tacklers. They are effective in coverage and near the line of scrimmage (6 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 2 FF).

OSU’s defense is 2nd in EPA/rush and 13th in rushing success rate, and the Hawkeyes are way too one-dimensional offensively, ranked 115th in EPA per dropback and 89th in success rate per dropback. Former Michigan QB Cade McNamara has a lower QBR than the current Michigan “passer.” Speaking of the Wolverines. Do you think the Buckeyes might have some bad blood against McNamara, who led Michigan to their first of three straight wins over the Bucks in “The Game?" Iowa will have a lot of trouble moving the football, and it will get worse when they inevitably fall behind.

Rutgers +7 NEBRASKA (DraftKings)

Remember what we said last week when we laid the points with the Cornhuskers? They are a bully team, and Purdue was an opponent they could bully. Try to bully Greg Schiano and the State School of New Jersey. Good luck.

With winds expected to be between 21 and 23 miles per hour, this game will likely be played in a phone booth with a premium on physicality. Who’s the most physical runner in this game? Kyle Monangai is a bowling ball of a rusher who doesn’t shy away from contact. He was impressive last week with 132 yards and 5.3 yards per carry against a quality defense. Monangai led the Big Ten in rushing in 2023 and is second this season with 589 yards (6.1 YPC) and six rushing TDs.

This is a good Nebraska defense, but they feast on weak offensive lines, and Rutgers might have the best they will have faced to this point. We said that two weeks ago when we took the points with Illinois and a worse rushing offense than RU’s, averaged 4.7 yards per carry (sack adjusted).

The Scarlet Knights are the quintessential bend but don’t break defense and lead the Big Ten in Red Zone defense, allowing opponents to score at a 54.5% clip. Only Ohio State and Iowa have allowed fewer Red Zone touchdowns.

In a game that is figured to be low-scoring and played in the margins, Rutgers gets a huge edge. They’re not as good as Schiano’s teams typically are in special teams (don’t be surprised if they get that corrected), but they are certainly much better than the Huskers, who check in at 131st per SP+ on special teams.

Rutgers-NEBRASKA UNDER 40.5 (FanDuel)

Did I mention the winds will be over 20 miles per hour? Expect a lot of running of the football with teams in the bottom half of college football in tempo, which will limit possessions.

Neither offense is outstanding in the red zone: Rutgers (78.3%) is 12th in the Big Ten, and Nebraska (77.2%) is 13th.

At their core, both Schiano and Matt Rhule have a conservative streak. Expect both of them to lean into that part of their coaching DNA on the plains this Saturday.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 0-2 | Season: 7-6 (+1 UNITS)

MINNESOTA +9 Usc (DraftKings)

Give me the Gophers and the points.

Minnesota’s defense has been tough this season. Not only does SP+ rank them 16th, but they’re also 20th in defensive success rate and 33rd in defensive EPA. Having a healthy Cody Lindenberg at linebacker has made a big difference in 2024. USC’s offense is more explosive than any they’ve faced, but we’re not predicting an upset.

The wind (15-18 MPH) isn’t as strong as we expect in Lincoln, but it should be a factor that will impact the Trojans more.

The biggest reason I’m on the Gophers is running back Darius Taylor (5.4 YPC, 5 TDs), who should be ready to carry a heavier load this week. A dynamic and physical runner, Tayl0r is a difference maker for Minnesota, who should be able to find some rushing lanes behind his offensive line and against a Trojans D-line down one of their top players in Bear Alexander.

I was also very impressed by quarterback Max Brosmer’s performance last week in Ann Arbor. He nearly led the Gophers back from a 21-0 (and 24-3) deficit on the road against a defense much better than USC’s.

Look for Taylor to run the ball effectively (Minnesota is 40th in rushing success rate) and for Brosmer to hit enough passes against a vulnerable Trojans pass defense (75th in dropback success rate) to keep this one close.

We’re not in the USC can’t win in the Big Ten camp, but Minnesota will play with a similar physicality as Michigan (albeit with lesser talent). Lincoln Riley has to prove he can lead his team to an emphatic road win, especially in a look-ahead spot (they host Penn State next week). After losing at Michigan two weeks ago, he is now 2-8, covering as a road favorite at USC (3-11 ATS since 2021 as a road favorite).

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NORTHWESTERN UNDER 13.5 (FanDuel)

The Northwestern offense looks like the worst in the Big Ten. They’re ranked 125th in points/drive, 119th in offensive success rate (125th rushing, 109th on dropbacks), and 116th in offensive EPA (113th rushing, 102nd on dropbacks), beyond pitiful.

The offensive line suffered a blow with the loss of center Jack Bailey in their last game and could be without leading rusher Cam Porter (questionable), who missed the Washington game.

In three FBS games, the ‘Cats have scored 13 points against Miami (OH), 13 points in regulation against Duke, and five points at Washington two weeks ago. That was quarterback Jack Lausch’s first start against an FBS team, and he was 8 of 27 passing for (29.6%) for 53 yards (2.0 yards per pass) with no touchdowns and two interceptions. They even returned a kickoff to the one-yard line and failed to score.

With 48.8 points per game (fourth nationally), Indiana’s offense has gotten most of the attention, but let’s not ignore its defense, which is 13th in points allowed (13 PPG). The advanced metrics back it up. The Hoosiers’ defense is ranked 13th in success rate, 23rd in points per drive, and 25th in EPA.

I don’t see how Northwestern moves the ball. Its offense is 107th in early downs EPA vs. a defense that is eighth on early downs. Behind the chains, the Wildcats are 127th in 3rd/4th down success rate vs. IU’s defense, which is 14th in get-off-the-field scenarios.

I’m tempted to also ride the Hoosiers wagon (-13.5), but Northwestern’s defense is respectable. Then there’s the wind. We’re looking at winds over 17 miles per hour coming off the lake in Evanston, which favors an under. The tempo also points towards an under, as the teams are tied for 113th in plays per minute, which should be even lower as they rely more heavily on the running game.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cats kept it closer than two touchdowns. I would be if it was because of their offense.

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 4-1 (+4.5 UNITS)

PENN STATE -27.5 Ucla (BetMGM)

UCLA has managed to cover the past two games but has lost its past three by an average margin of 22.3 points per game. The most points it has scored through four games is 17 to LSU. Only Purdue has been outscored by more points in Power 4 games this season.

This week, the Bruins are taking on the best defense it has faced to date and could be without its starting quarterback, Ethan Garbers (3 TDs, 6 INTs), who has been sacked 12 times. If he does suit up, when he sees (or worse, doesn’t) PSU EDGE Abdul Carter (2 sacks, 4 TFLs, 1 FF, 1 PD last week), Garbers will wish he wasn’t playing.

UCLA ranks outside the top 100 in points per drive (131), offensive success rate (129), and offensive EPA (101). They can’t run, can’t pass, and struggle on early downs (124th in EOA) and 3rd/4th downs (116th in success rate). PSU’s defense is 12th in points per drive, 12th in defensive success rate, and 13th in defensive EPA. The Nittany Lions are hard-hitting with speed on every level of their defense. Don’t be surprised if the Bruins don’t score at all (UCLA’s team total is 8.5, BTW!).

Penn State OC Andy Kotelnicki has done his thing (and looks to be missed at Kansas), as the offense has been as good, if not better, than their defense. They’re ranked 12th in points per drive, second in offensive success rate, and 11th in offensive EPA. Junior Nick Singleton (408 yards, 7.7 YPC, 5 total TDs) is back to his explosive self, complemented by Kaytron Allen (5.5 YPC). Drew Allar has seen his yards per pass sore to 10.9 (from 6.8 YPC) while he continues to protect the football (8 TDs, 1 INT). TE Tyler Warren has emerged as a weapon, one of four Nittany Lions with multiple receiving touchdowns. The offensive line appears as cohesive as we’ve seen under James Franklin.

Even if they pull Allar in a blowout, backup Beau Pribula (9.6 YPC, 2 passing TDs) is a playmaker, and Franklin is no stranger to pouring it on and covering big spreads.

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B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

None.