NCAAF · 1 year ago

Big Ten Football Power Rankings Following Week 6: OSU-Oregon Week

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

TIER VI – SADLY, WE ARE…PURDUE: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (1-4, 0-2)
The Boilermakers are genuinely in a class of their own, not in a good way. They entered Week 6 with the worst point differential among Power 4 teams in Power 4 games. That was before they lost to Wisconsin 52-6 (it’s now -140!) and were outgained 589 yards to 216. They are stunningly bad.

Week 7 | 3:30 | FS1 | +19.5 vs. Illinois
TIER 1 – THE B1G FAVORITE: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (5-0, 2-0)
Heading into their most challenging game of the year, the Ohio State Buckeyes are -115 to Win the Big Ten Championship (futures odds are from FanDuel), are the favorite to win the National Championship (+290), and are viewed as a near lock to make the College Football Playoff (-1600), with the shortest odds of any team.

They wore the Hawkeyes down after sputtering a bit in the first half (7-0 halftime lead) and took advantage of short fields in the second half, finding the end zone on scoring drives of 19, 27, and 40 yards. Iowa wouldn't find pay dirt as long as OSU’s starters were in the game.

Week 7 | 7:30 | NBC | -3.5 @ Oregon (spreads are from BetMGM)
TIER II – THE CHALLENGERS: OREGON & PENN STATE
Both in the top five of the AP Poll, Oregon (-800) and Penn State (-250) are projected to make the playoffs by the books. They are also the only realistic challengers to Ohio State in the Big Ten, with Oregon +230 to Win the B1G Championship and PSU +450. Every other program is +2000 or longer.
OREGON DUCKS (5-0, 2-0)
For the second straight week, Oregon jumped out to an early lead (21-0 at halftime; 31-0 early in the fourth quarter), only to give up a couple of “meaningless” scores late in the game. They nearly doubled MSU in yards (477 to 250) and did an excellent job limiting a decent rushing attack (59 yards). One cause of concern is that Dillon Gabriel threw a pair of red zone interceptions. He needs to be sharper this Saturday if they are to take control of the B1G race.

Week 7 | 7:30 | NBC | +3.5 vs. Ohio State
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (5-0, 2-0)
Without explosive runner Nick Singleton, PSU played a sloppy game offensively. They managed just 27 points against a UCLA defense that had allowed 34+ points in three straight games, including 42 to Indiana. With a trip to USC coming this week, the Nittany Lions might have been a little more vanilla than usual with their play calling, but it was still surprising to see them manage a mere 3.2 yards per carry (sack adjusted). Considering what other top 10 teams did last Saturday, we probably shouldn’t be too hard on them.

Week 7 | 3:30 | CBS | -5.5 @ USC
TIER III – THE BEST OF THE REST: INDIANA, MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON, IOWA, USC, ILLINOIS
Programs like Michigan, USC, Washington, and Iowa expect to be at this tier, if not higher (remember the Huskies and Wolverines played for the National Championship just nine months ago), with Indiana and Illinois the surprise party crashers. Indiana has moved ahead of Michigan (fifth at +5500) and USC (eighth at +10000) to have the fourth-best odds to Win the Big Ten Championship at +2000. IU checks in with 19th best odds to make the College Football Playoff (+305), followed by the Trojans (+1100), Hawkeyes (+1500), Fighting Illini (+2500), Wolverines (+3000), and Huskies (+7500).
INDIANA HOOSIERS (6-0, 3-0)
The Hoosiers are the first Big Ten team to secure bowl eligibility and earn their third conference win. But you get the sense Curt Cignetti has his eyes set on bigger things in Year 1. With their 17-point win at Northwestern, all of Indiana’s wins have come by at least two touchdowns. A balanced offense allowed IU to post 7.8 yards per play on their way to 529 yards, including a very impressive 11.5 yards per pass.

Week 7 | Idle
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (4-2, 2-1)
Saturday was a worse loss than their blowout defeat to Texas. Down 14-0, Michigan stormed back to take the lead 17-0 after switching to veteran quarterback Jack Tuttle. However, they lost the fourth quarter 13-0, with the decisive ten points by the Huskies off of turnovers (32-yard TD drive, 26-yard FG drive). It feels like the program lacks organization, potentially down to the equipment, as numerous Wolverines found themselves slipping on the field, leading many to wonder if Michigan had the right cleats (seriously!).

Week 7 | Idle
IOWA HAWKEYES (3-2, 1-1)
The defense hung tough but couldn’t overcome the offense’s three turnovers, which turned into three touchdowns, turning a 14-0 deficit into 35-0. The lack of a passing offense (4.9 yards per pass) will continue to limit their ceiling, but I was surprised at how effective Iowa was running the football (5.8 YPC/sack adjusted), which bodes well for them moving forward.

Week 7 | 12:00 | FOX | -2.5 vs. Washington
WASHINGTON HUSKIES (4-2, 2-1)
The Huskies needed that win over Michigan, not just to avenge their National Championship loss. (Note: Weirdly, they’re acting like the Wolverines are their rival, considering Washington State and Oregon still exist.) After blowing games they should have won against WSU and RU, Washington was finally the team taking advantage of the opponent’s errors. Seven Huskies had catches of 13+ yards, including three with receptions of over 35 yards. That big-play passing ability was the difference in the game.

Week 7 | 12:00 | FOX | +2.5 @ Iowa
USC TROJANS (3-2, 1-2)
Welcome to the Big Ten, indeed. Part II. The Trojans ran the ball very well at Minnesota (6.7 YPC/sack adjusted), but Miller Moss was intercepted twice, and the passing offense never really got clicking (5.3 yards per pass). Defensively, USC got pushed around. That’s two road trips against physical rushing football teams, and twice Lincoln Riley left with a loss as a touchdown or better favorite. Life in the B1G doesn’t get any easier, but at least they will host Penn State this Saturday.

Week 7 |3:30 | CBS | +5.5 vs. Penn State
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (4-1, 1-1)
Coming off their first defeat (Week 5 at Penn State), the Fighting Illini are set up to get back on track with Purdue coming to Champaign this Saturday. This will mark the return of former defensive coordinator Ryan Walters as the B1G rivals batting for the Purdue cannon. Illinois is the largest Big Ten favorite this week, and it isn’t even close. I’m not sure when the last time we could say that was.

Week 7 | 3:30 | FS1 | -19.5 vs. Purdue
TIER IV – THE MIDDLE CLASS: NEBRASKA, RUTGERS, MINNESOTA, MARYLAND, WISCONSIN
Rutgers (+2000 to Make the CFB Playoffs) and Nebraska (+2000) are ahead of teams in Tier III, but a lot of that is based on its record and, more so, their schedules moving forward. If not, the Scarlet Knights would be more than a 2.5-point favorite over the Badgers at home. They are also the clear-cut top two in this tier, just slightly behind the teams above. Wisconsin (+10000) and Minnesota (+25000) are among the longest CFP longshots.
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (5-1, 2-1)
It wasn’t pretty (14-7 win over Rutgers)—Dylan Raiola had his worst game as a collegian (23 of 27 passing, 48%, o TDs, 1 INT), was sacked four times, and they couldn’t get the running game going (3.5 YPC/sack adjusted) against a defense that had been easy to run on. They also got the benefit of poor officiating and execution by the opponent. All of that is true. So is the fact that that was 100 percent a game the Huskers have lost over the past seven seasons. A win is a win. Take it.

Week 7 | Idle
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (4-1, 1-0)
I’m still slightly confused about why Rutgers threw the ball 37 times and ran it 28 on a windy day in Lincoln when both quarterbacks completed fewer than half of their passes. Still, they had a chance to overcome a 14-0 halftime deficit if not for an egregious non-TD call (no review! How?) on first and goal (RU would turn it over on downs) and a dropped sure-TD by Ben Black. I’m unsure if the better team won, but considering RU averaged 3.8 yards per play, the Scarlet Knights weren’t impressive.

Week 7 | 12:00 | BTN | -2.5 vs. Wisconsin
WISCONSIN BADGERS (3-2, 1-1)
You don’t think Wisconsin belongs? Maybe not, but I do, and so do the bookmakers. We don’t want to put too much stock into their 52-6 blowout over Purdue, but it shows they’re a cut above the bottom tier. Backup Braedyn Locke looks more competent than last season: completion percentage up to 55.4% (including 13 of 26 vs. Alabama) from 50% and 8.0 yards per pass (4.8 vs. Alabama), up from 5.1 in 2023. They may have found something in freshman slot WR Trech Kekahuna (6 receptions, 124 yards, 2 TDs) out of Bishop Gorman.

Week 7 |12:00 | BTN | +2.5 @ Rutgers
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (3-3, 1-2)
That was a massive win for the Golden Gophers to get back to .500 and avoid falling to 0-3 in the Big Ten play. It’s not an understatement to say they may have saved their season. Minnesota returned to its running game roots as it rushed the football 40 times compared to 19 pass attempts. Darius Taylor was the star (144 yards, 5.8 YPC), and I can watch him tote the rock all day. We shouldn’t undersell Max Brosmer’s effort. Without his 15 of 19 passing (169 yards) and three rushing touchdowns, we’d be hearing about P.J. Fleck on the hot seat this week.

Week 7 | 9:00 | BTN | -5.5 @ UCLA
MARYLAND TERRAPINS (3-2, 0-2)
Looking at their final six games—vs. USC, at Minnesota, at Oregon, vs. Rutgers, vs. Iowa, at Penn State—Friday night is the easiest game left on Maryland’s schedule and a must-win for the Terps.

Week 7 | 8:00 | FOX | -10 vs. Northwestern (Friday)
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (3-3, 1-2)
I’m not saying head coach Jonathan Smith knew what the spread was, but he sure coached like he knew what the spread was, and he might have some boosters who believe good teams win and great teams cover. I’m kidding, of course, but MSU kicked a field goal with 25 seconds left to cut Oregon’s lead to 21 points and coincidentally cover the point spread. Besides creating a pair of red zone turnovers, the Spartans did little right on Friday night.

Week 7 | Idle
TIER V – AT LEAST WE’RE NOT PURDUE: NORTHWESTERN, UCLA
There’s a good chance neither Northwestern (+50000 to Win the Big Ten) nor UCLA (+50000) makes a bowl, but at least they compete.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (2-3, 0-2)
A second straight loss, but did the Wildcats find a silver lining? After averaging 1.96 yards per pass at Washington, Jack Lausch threw for 243 yards and two TDs (no INTs) on 6.4 yards per pass (10.6 yards per completion). They will need some semblance of a passing offense if they want to make a bowl this season.

Week 7 | 8:00 | FOX | +10 @ Maryland (Friday)
UCLA BRUINS (1-4, 0-3)
Give UCLA credit. They kept their trip to Happy Valley closer than the experts (including this ‘capper) thought they could. The Bruins played hard, were physical on defense, and ran the ball effectively (4.6 yards per carry/sack adjusted). Making his first career start, sophomore Justyn Martin was respectable, especially considering the opponent and venue. Martin averaged only 5.6 yards per pass but did not put the ball in harm’s way (no turnovers) while he made quick and intelligent decisions (22 of 30).

Week 7 | 9:00 | BTN | +5.5 vs. Minnesota
TIER VI – SADLY, WE ARE…PURDUE: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (1-4, 0-2)
The Boilermakers are genuinely in a class of their own, not in a good way. They entered Week 6 with the worst point differential among Power 4 teams in Power 4 games. That was before they lost to Wisconsin 52-6 (it’s now -140!) and were outgained 589 yards to 216. They are stunningly bad.

Week 7 | 3:30 | FS1 | +19.5 vs. Illinois
TIER 1 – THE B1G FAVORITE: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (5-0, 2-0)
Heading into their most challenging game of the year, the Ohio State Buckeyes are -115 to Win the Big Ten Championship (futures odds are from FanDuel), are the favorite to win the National Championship (+290), and are viewed as a near lock to make the College Football Playoff (-1600), with the shortest odds of any team.

They wore the Hawkeyes down after sputtering a bit in the first half (7-0 halftime lead) and took advantage of short fields in the second half, finding the end zone on scoring drives of 19, 27, and 40 yards. Iowa wouldn't find pay dirt as long as OSU’s starters were in the game.

Week 7 | 7:30 | NBC | -3.5 @ Oregon (spreads are from BetMGM)

Big Ten Football Power Rankings Following Week 6: OSU-Oregon Week

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