Boise State & Colorado See National Title Odds Surge After Week 9
Grant White
Host · Writer
This is a sad truth that nobody wants to admit. We are in the stretch drive of the 2024 college football season. Week 9 is in the books, meaning there’s less than a month left in the regular season.
The top half of the National Championship futures board is in complete disarray. There have been notable upsets week after week among the Top 25, causing substantive shifts in the betting odds. With so much movement among the betting favorites, it’s easy to lose sight of what’s happening at the bottom of the table.
The Boise State Broncos and Colorado Buffaloes have quietly asserted themselves as legitimate contenders, and their jump in betting odds reflects that.
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Seismic Shifts in Colorado’s Odds
It’s been a hell of a ride for the Colorado Buffaloes and their National Championship odds. Colorado opened in the +20000 to +25000 range to win this year’s title. After an uninspired start to the season, they dropped as low as +50000. But with wins in five of their past six, including a 4-1 Big 12 record, the Buffaloes have re-emerged as a +17000 betting option heading into Week 10.
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
The Broncos have also seen a shift in their National Championship odds, but their ascent has been a slow and steady climb up the board. More and more bettors are starting to believe in Boise State. After opening at +50000, the Broncos have seen a slow and steady climb in their futures price. Following Week 9’s triumph over the UNLV Rebels, Boise State has dipped to +13000 to claim this year’s championship.
Competing in the Mountain West, Boise State doesn’t have a guaranteed berth in the College Football Playoff. Instead, to secure a spot, the Broncos must finish the season as the country’s best Group of Five team. The Rebels, Navy Midshipmen, and Liberty Flames fell out of the playoff race in Week 9, bolstering the Broncos’ playoff chances.
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Implied Probabilities
There’s still an advantage in backing both programs at their current valuations. At their current betting prices, the implied probability of Boise State odds comes with a 0.76% chance of them claiming the National Championship. Likewise, Colorado is hovering around 0.58%.
The sharpest bettors have already gotten the best of the number, but there are still profitable entry points for others who want to own the Broncos and Buffaloes.
More Value on the Buffaloes
While a lot of the value has been sucked out of the line, there’s still an edge in backing the Buffaloes. The Big 12 winner has a guaranteed berth into the College Football Playoff field. Still, there’s an outside shot that Colorado loses or misses out on the conference championship but is awarded an “at-large" berth. However, in Boise State’s case, they can only assure themselves of a playoff spot by proving that they are the best Group of Five team in the country.
On that basis, the Buffaloes have more potential entry points into the playoff than the Broncos, who tend to fall apart when it matters most.
Committee Bias
The other factor that bettors can’t account for is CFP committee bias, a pitfall the Florida State Seminoles are all too familiar with.
Heading into Championship Weekend last year, the Seminoles were undefeated and locked into the fourth seed in the playoff rankings. Easily dispatching the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles appeared to be a virtual lock for the semifinal. However, the playoff committee relegated the Seminoles to the fifth seed, replacing them with the 12-1 Texas Longhorns and Alabama Crimson Tide.
Four playoff spots are guaranteed for the Power Four conference winners this year. That leaves eight more opportunities for controversy heading into this year’s playoffs. But public perception props up the Buffaloes, meaning they could be this year’s usurpers.
Final Thoughts
Colorado and Boise State’s betting odds are declining, but there’s still value in backing both teams. The Broncos have an unimpeded path to the MWC Championship Game. With each passing week, they appear more certain to be headed to the playoffs. The Buffaloes need some help to get into the Big 12 Championship Game, but as long as they close out the season without further loss, they could still be awarded a playoff berth without the automatic entry. As a result, both teams should see their National Championship odds continue to drop over the season’s final month.
Only a few weeks separate us from another seven months without college football. Thankfully, bettors can still make that time count with a calculated risk in the futures market.
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