Bubble Watch: Potential College Football Playoff Teams

10. LSU Tigers

The LSU Tigers are 6-2. They have won at South Carolina and Arkansas and against Ole Miss at home. The Tigers lost to Texas A&M, and their margin for error vanished. The playoff odds tanked from +105 to +220. The Tigers have a bye week and then face a must-win game against Alabama. If they win that one, their playoff hopes would still be alive, but, much like Alabama, there is no margin for error.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: LSU (+220)

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2. Texas A&M Aggies

The Texas A&M Aggies lost the season-opener at home to Notre Dame. That’s not a damaging loss, but Notre Dame’s subsequent loss to Northern Illinois makes it a defeat to a fellow bubble team. Since that loss, the Aggies have won over Florida, Bowling Green, Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi State. The Aggies then impressed on Saturday night against LSU and notched a pivotal win to remain unbeaten in the SEC. The final portion of their schedule features a tricky trip to South Carolina. They close with a matchup against bitter rival Texas in College Station on Thanksgiving weekend. The Aggies' odds to make the playoff vaulted from +125 to +100 with the win over LSU, and if they can avoid a loss before the Texas game, they are likely in the field regardless of that outcome.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Texas A&M (+125)

3. Clemson Tigers

The Clemson Tigers were shelled by Georgia in the second half of the season opener, but they have responded with six straight victories, climbing to No. 9 in the polls. Clemson has a bye this week, and the final stretch of their schedule is more challenging than it has been in the past few weeks. They host Louisville before playing at Virginia Tech and Pitt, and close with Citadel and the Palmetto Bowl against South Carolina. I believe Clemson has two paths to the College Football Playoff: win out to finish 11-1 and make the ACC Championship Game, beating Miami or SMU (they would beat Pitt and eliminate the Panthers in this scenario), and earn the first-round bye. Or, win out to finish 11-1, miss the ACC Championship Game to SMU and Miami and get an at-large selection. The lack of strength in the ACC and the fact they don’t play Miami or SMU in the regular season means Clemson cannot lose another game before the playoff to feel good about making it.

2024 College Football Playoff: Clemson (-185)

4. Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee has not played like a College Football Playoff team this season. Their win over North Carolina State has lost a lot of luster as the Wolfpack have failed to live up to preseason expectations. The Vols’ offense has sputtered and can’t seem to hit explosive plays, and looking at their resume leaves you wanting more. Tennessee survived over Alabama to keep its hopes alive and spent the bye week trying to figure out its passing attack. Tennessee plays Kentucky and Mississippi State at home. They should win those games, but a massive test at Georgia awaits on November 16. Can Tennessee get in with a 10-2 record and its best two wins being Alabama at home and at Vanderbilt or Oklahoma? I don’t think that is good enough.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Tennessee (-185)

5. Indiana Hoosiers

The Indiana Hoosiers are a legitimate threat to make the College Football Playoff. It’s not a fluke, and it’s not a misprint. Indiana is now 8-0 and still have not surrendered a single point in the first quarter or trailed for a second of any game. It is fair to ask: “Who have they beaten?” The answer would be, “No one particularly great.” That written, UCLA just beat Rutgers, and IU walloped them on the road; Maryland just beat USC, and IU handled them 42-28. They won at Northwestern 41-24, obliterated Nebraska 56-7 right before the Huskers nearly stunned Ohio State, and then beat Washington 31-17 with their backup quarterback. IU plays Michigan State on the road and then hosts Michigan, and Kurtis Rourke's status is unknown. The Hoosiers play at Ohio State on November 23. If Indiana goes 11-1 and then misses out on the Big Ten Championship Game to a combination of Oregon, Ohio State, or Penn State, they would almost certainly make the College Football Playoff. Is there enough “meat on the bone” for the Hoosiers to make the field at 10-2? Probably not. Their odds jumped from +200 to +100 with the win over Washington.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Indiana (+100)

6. Ole Miss Rebels

The Ole Miss Rebels have a pair of damaging losses already but have great underlying metrics that suggest they still have a shot to run the table and get into the field. The loss at LSU was to a fellow bubble team, and the defeat to Kentucky was at home and against a team that might not make a bowl game. The most significant detriment to their chances is probably the remaining schedule. Ole Miss beat Oklahoma but underwhelmed, and they now play Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi State. The Rebels have to beat the Georgia Bulldogs to have any shot. However, is defeating UGA at home enough, given the rest of the schedule and the two losses? The Rebels will need to win out, and they’ll need some help elsewhere to squeak in.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Ole Miss (+200)

7. Alabama Crimson Tide

Until last week, Alabama was favored to make the College Football Playoff. They were -110 to make the 12-team field, but that number has dropped to +100 (tied with Indiana and Texas A&M). The Tide’s win over Georgia looks excellent, and it will have staying power when it is time for the selection committee to choose the field. Beyond that, Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee and should have lost at home to South Carolina. They hammered Missouri, but the Tigers were wounded and don't deserve to be anywhere near the top 25. If Alabama can improve themselves quite a bit, find a running game outside of Jalen Milroe, and vastly enhance in the secondary, they will have a shot to finish 10-2 and make the playoff. Otherwise, another loss or two seems quite likely. The game next weekend at LSU is a must-win for both teams.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Alabama (+100)

8. SMU Mustangs

The SMU Mustangs began the season inauspiciously with a sloppy and narrow win over Nevada and then a disappointing 18-15 loss at home to BYU. SMU switched from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings at quarterback, and the attack took off. BYU remains unbeaten, and that loss has taken on a much different context since it occurred. The Mustangs are still unbeaten in the ACC and have a win at Louisville. They turned it over six times but still won in overtime at Duke. Now, a matchup with unbeaten Pittsburgh on November 2 will clarify the ACC and playoff chase for both teams. SMU, Clemson, Pitt, and Miami are all still unbeaten in the ACC, and Clemson, SMU, and Miami do not play each other in the regular season. That will create some exciting tiebreaker scenarios if they remain unbeaten in league play. Does SMU have a shot to make the College Football Playoff if they go 11-1 and run the table in the ACC but do not make it to the ACC Championship Game? They would almost certainly not get in with the same record and then a loss in the ACC Championship Game, as silly as that might be. The Mustangs are a team to keep an eye on.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: SMU (+200)

9. Army Black Knights

The Army Black Knights have the country's top rushing attack and keep pounding teams. They sit at 7-0, but the schedule has been about as weak as possible. The best team the Black Knights have played is probably East Carolina, and the Pirates are 4-4 with a 2-2 record in the American Athletic Conference. Army’s candidacy comes down to three games: Notre Dame on November 23, the American Athletic Conference Championship Game (probably against Navy), and the regular season finale against Navy on December 14. If Army wins out, they will pass Boise State and likely find themselves a real threat to host a first-round game. If Army loses any of those games, they probably don’t have the strength of schedule to muster a playoff bid.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Army (+800)

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10. LSU Tigers

The LSU Tigers are 6-2. They have won at South Carolina and Arkansas and against Ole Miss at home. The Tigers lost to Texas A&M, and their margin for error vanished. The playoff odds tanked from +105 to +220. The Tigers have a bye week and then face a must-win game against Alabama. If they win that one, their playoff hopes would still be alive, but, much like Alabama, there is no margin for error.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: LSU (+220)

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