Buffalo vs Liberty Bahamas Bowl Prediction | College Football Best Bets

Expectations were burning bright for the Liberty Flames at the season’s outset. Coming off a Fiesta Bowl appearance versus the Oregon Ducks, Liberty was among the few Group of Five teams expected to compete for a playoff spot. However, two mid-season losses to unsuspecting opponents quickly de-railed those plans. The Flames had a chance to salvage their season and make a run to the CUSA Championship Game, but a Week 14 loss relegated Liberty to the Bahamas Bowl. Without their starting quarterback and several other high-profile players, Liberty is at a disadvantage against the imposing Buffalo Bulls.

Where to Watch Buffalo vs Liberty Bahamas Bowl

• Location: Thomas Robinson Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
• Time: Saturday, January 4 at 11:00 a.m. ET | Where to Watch: ESPN2
• Spread: Buffalo -2.5 | Moneyline: Buffalo -146 | Total: 50.5

Buffalo vs Liberty Bahamas Bowl Best Bet ATS: Buffalo -2.5

Liberty’s offense was stagnant at times this season, which will be even more pronounced against Buffalo. The Flames are without their starting quarterback, Kaidon Salter, who entered the transfer portal at the outset of the window and is on his way to Colorado next season. Moreover, backup Ryan Burger is still dealing with a concussion, meaning Nate Hampton is the probable starter. Hampton also entered the transfer portal but appears to be using Saturday’s contest as an audition for other programs. Even at full health, the Flames were atrocious at covering the number. Liberty finished an abysmal 3-8 against the spread this season, constantly overestimated by the betting market. Conversely, Buffalo was a far superior 7-5 against the spread this season, but the Bulls hit their stride at the end of the campaign. They covered three of their last four while being favored in all but one of those contests. The Bulls should have no problem maintaining that streak versus Liberty.

Buffalo vs Liberty Bahamas Bowl Best Bet Total: Under 50.5

Liberty’s offense will have difficulty putting up a number against Buffalo. In addition to their quarterback woes, the Flames will be running into the strength of the Bulls’ defense. Buffalo has tightened its rush defense over the latter part of the campaign. They’ve held their last three opponents to an average of 123.0 rushing yards per game. Further, the Bulls haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 8. Buffalo will be gearing up to stop a one-dimensional offense that will rely almost exclusively on Quinton Cooley. Likewise, Liberty’s defense will be up to the challenge of containing Buffalo’s offensive attack. They allowed an average of 358.9 yards per game this season, equaling 23.3 points. As a result, we’re taking a firm stance on the under in this one.

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Buffalo vs Liberty Bahamas Bowl Best Game Props

Exact Score – Buffalo Bulls 21 – Liberty Flames 16 +27000

We’re going exotic with our game prop and taking the exact score prop. Tying together our previous analysis, we’re predicting the final score in the Bahamas Bowl will be Buffalo Bulls 21 to the Liberty Flames 17. Buffalo has the advantage offensively, but scoring won’t come easily against Liberty’s defense. Moreover, the Flames won’t have much success moving the ball against the Bulls. With Buffalo up comfortably in the waning moments, Liberty should march down the field and score. Needing a two-point conversion and a field goal to tie the game, we predict the Bulls come up with a stop and onside kick recovery, sealing their 21-16 win. 

Buffalo vs Liberty Bahamas Bowl Player Opt-Outs

Liberty: Kaidon Salter, QB (transfer portal); Jordan White, LG (transfer portal); Xavior Gray, RT (transfer portal); Jordan Hall, LT (transfer portal); Bryce Dixon, DL (transfer portal); Eliyt Nairne, DL (transfer portal)

Buffalo: Upton Bellenfant, K (transfer portal); Javien Cuff, WR (transfer portal)

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