NCAAF · 1 year ago

College Football B1G Bets Betting Preview: Big Ten Best Bets for Week 3

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

College Football B1G Bets Betting Preview: Big Ten Best Bets for Week 3

You’re not as good as you think when you win (5-0 in Week 1), and you’re not as bad as you think when you lose (1-6 in Week 2). It applies to handicappers as much as college football teams. Like Michigan, Iowa, Maryland, and Northwestern, we’re looking to bounce back in Week 3 in the Big Ten.

Three B1G teams (Ohio State, Penn State, USC) are idle this week, three play FCS foes (Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern), four (Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois) are favorites by over 17 points against G5 teams, and two (Oregon, Washington) are playing traditional Pac-12 rivalry games that are suddenly part of our slate.

We have one conference game for the second straight week, and who doesn’t get excited about the Indiana Hoosiers visiting the Rose Bowl?

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Last Week: 1-6 (-4 UNITS) | Overall: 6-6 (+2 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 0-3 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 3-2 (+1 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 3-0 (+4.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 3-3 (+1 UNITS) | Team Totals: 3-2 (+1.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNITS)

Remember, scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 0-3 | Season: 0-3 (-1.5 UNITS)

PURDUE +10 Notre Dame (@BetMGM)

I had this game circled last week before Notre Dame’s stunning loss to Northern Illinois. How do the Irish respond? Notre Dame coming off a huge upset gave me some pause, but the result was not fluky. This isn’t the caliber of offensive line we’re used to at South Bend, and quarterback Riley Leonard hasn’t been the upgrade many expected. He’s averaging just 5.2 yards per pass with two interceptions and no touchdown passes. Leonard also suffered an injury to the posterior labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. Even if it doesn’t affect his ability to throw the football, it will likely limit his running, which is the strength of his game right now.

With a daunting schedule, I’m not sure how many games Purdue will win this season, but I expect the Spoilermakers to give some double-digit favorites a scare or two. Gap-filling nose tackle Cole Brevard and do-everything linebacker Kydran Jenkins are two of the best defenders non-B1G fans have never heard of, while safety Dillon Thieneman is an elite last line of defense. It’s their second season in Ryan Walters’s defense, and more importantly, we expect QB Hudson Card to be much improved in Year 2 in West Lafayette. Especially with NFL prospects guard Mahamane Moussa and tackle Marcus Mbow back healthy along the offensive line.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 0-2 | Season: 3-2 (+1 UNITS)

Washington -5 Washington State (@Caesars)

This line was Washington -8 ahead of Week 2, and I’m not exactly sure what the Huskies (or Beavers) did for such a strong line move blowing past the seven. Yes, the Cougars handled Texas Tech 37-16, but they were out-gained, won the turnover battle by three (four to one), and Tech was 1-of-5 on fourth down compared to 2-of-3 by Wazzu. A lot of things went their way. They have 21 points after converting fourth downs through two games.

I expect Washington to be able to move the ball against a WSU defense that has already allowed 13 plays of 20+ yards, that’s 122nd in the country, despite starting the season against an FCS opponent in Portland State, who scored 30 on the Cougs. Will Rogers is doing Will Rogers things (78.8 completion percentage, 5 TDs, 0 INTs), and I love Jonah Coleman (231 yards, 8.6 YPC, 3 TDs) running the football.

But even more, I’m baking UW because of their defense. Going into my futures process, I was sure I was going to be on UNDER Washington’s season win total, but they rebuilt their defense impressively in the offseason with a nice mixture of returning subs ready for more prominent roles (LB Carson Bruener second with 11 tackles), players who sat out 2023 (EDGE Zach Durfee has 2.5 sacks), and 2024 transfers (DT Sebastian Valdez has 2 TFLs). DC Steve Belichick has his Huskies among the best-tackling defenses, flying around the field and creating a ton of havoc (15 TFLs, 8 sacks).

MICHIGAN -22.5 Arkansas State (@FanDuel)

If there’s a team that most embodies my desire to get back in the W column, it has to be the defending champion Wolverines. The most stunning aspect of last week’s 19-point loss was the ten third-down conversions the defense allowed with no sacks from their front four. Expect that group to respond with a considerable bounce-back effort against an offensive line that isn’t nearly as talented as Texas.

My instinct was to bet on the defense (Arkansas State UNDER 12.5), but who needs a get-right week more than the Michigan offense? The Red Wolves are the perfect opponent with the worst defense on Michigan’s schedule this season. Arkansas State came in with what was projected to be a terrible unit, and through two games, they are living down to the prognostications, ranked 100th in defensive success rate, including 112th against the run. They are 109th on early down EPA and 112th in net field position, which plays into what Michigan wants to do.

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WISCONSIN UNDER 16.5 (-113 @ FanDuel)

The Badgers’ offense has looked rather pedestrian against Western Michigan (28 points) and South Dakota (27 points). Tyler Van Dyke has been inconsistent, Chez Mellusi is a notch below the typical Wisconsin back, and the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. Just two of Van Dyke’s 38 completions have traveled 15+ yards through the air. Getting downfield separation was an issue in 2023 for the Badgers that hasn’t been fixed.

It’s a small sample size, but Van Dyke is 100th in air yards per pass, and his 6.4 yards per pass through two games is well below his Miami numbers: 8.1 (2023), 7.3 (2022), and 9.0 (2021). Overall, the offense ranks outside the top 100 in plays of 10+, 20+, and 30+ yards. Wisconsin’s offensive EPA is ranked 114th nationally.

Alabama’s defense remains one of the best in the country and is incredibly stout upfront. At 326 pounds, nose tackle Tim Keenan III is a space-eater (12 tackles) who can also get into the offensive backfield (2.5 TFLs), while senior edge rusher Que Robinson (2 sacks) is playing like a hungry man after waiting for his seat at the table. Their secondary may get tested later in the season but by offenses better than Wisconsin’s.