College Football Best Bets for Week 14: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

It’s hard to believe we’re here. It’s Week 14, the final week of the college football regular season, with ten Big Ten games on the slate. The Game is the headliner, but don’t sleep on Paul Bunyan’s Axe, the Old Oaken Bucket, the Jeweled Shillelagh, the Heroes Trophy, or the Land of Lincoln Trophy.

It’s also a chance to get over .500 heading into next week’s Big Ten Championship Game.

Last Week: 2-3 (-0.5 UNITS) 📉 | Overall: 40-42-1 (+1.5 UNITS)

This Week: 7-1-1 (+4 UNITS) 📈 | Overall: 47-43-2 (+5.5 UNITS) 

2025 B1GBETS FINAL TALLY

Regular Bets: 19-23-2 (-2 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 21-13 (+8 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 6-5 (+1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 27-24-2 (+1 UNITS) | Team Totals: 19-15 (+6 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-4 (-1.5 UNITS)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 1-2 | Season: 16-23-1 (-3.5 UNITS)

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Michigan +20.5 OHIO STATE (FanDuel) ✅

We all know how good Ohio State is and how disappointing Michigan has been.

At the same time, the Wolverines might be better than many believe as the season has gone on. It might be why the Maize and Blue have covered three of four, including the past two, and Oregon needed ten points in the final 40 seconds to cover in Ann Arbor, or it would be four straight ATS wins for the defending champs after they beat the spread once in their first seven games.

Michigan came out strong out of the bye week and played their best all-around game of the season, a 50-6 win over Northwestern. Are we expecting anything close to that on Saturday? Obviously not. We’re not even expecting half that many points in Columbus. We won’t need it.

The key here will be running the football—something the Wolverines can do and have done against the Buckeyes (see Donovan Edwards). Michigan is 37th in rush success rate and 38th in EPA/rush. In addition to Big Game Don, Kalel Mullings (832 yards, 5.4 YPC, 11 TDs) is a physical runner.

I was surprised that Indiana ran the ball pretty well last week. Their backs rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Maybe the Wolverines can do the same as they look to shorten the game.

The biggest reason I’m taking the points is a Michigan defense with players who can match up and outplay Ohio State along the line of scrimmage, where OSU is down two key starters. In the past five games, we’ve seen Nebraska hold the Buckeyes to 21 and Penn State limit them to 20.

Yes, OSU scored 38 against Indiana—but that number includes a seven-yard TD drive after IU’s punter dropped the football, a punt return touchdown, and a garbage-time touchdown with 35 seconds left (that’s 21 points). Before TreVeyon Henderson’s 39-yard run in garbage time, OSU had 276 yards against the Hoosiers, averaging 5.3 YPP (which would be 104th nationally).

We know the Buckeyes want to obliterate the Maize & Blue—and maybe they will—but don’t expect the Wolverines to roll over. Defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are the best interior tandem not in the NFL. Josaiah Stewart can be a terror off the edge, TJ Guy has grown as a pass rusher, and linebacker Jaishawn Barham is making impact plays near the line of scrimmage.

This rivalry has had its share of blowouts, but we’ve also seen inferior Michigan teams keep it closer than the experts predicted. John O’Korn led them to a 14-0 lead in 2017 in a four-point game until the final two minutes. In 2013, a seven-win Brady Hoke team was a two-point conversation away from upsetting the No. 3 Buckeyes. We don’t need Saturday to be nearly as close.

PENN STATE -24.5 Maryland (FanDuel) ✅

Since 2016, James Franklin is 7-1 against Maryland, with the loss coming during the COVID season. Their wins have come by an average margin of 37.7 points! The Nittany Lions have won six of seven by 24 points and five by at least 30 points, including the last two years when the Terps won eight games each season.

Those last two were against a Maryland team led by Taulia Tagovailoa (more on the offense below) with a better defense.

PSU has a significant edge in nearly every metric: net points/drive (6th vs. 87th), SP+ (10th vs. 84th), offensive success rate (2nd vs. 91st), yards per play (15th vs. 93rd), yards per play allowed (5th vs. 72nd), defensive success rate (14th vs. 74th), and EPA margin (11th vs. 55th).

Since 2021, PSU is 27-12-1 (69.2 percent) ATS as a favorite, while Maryland is 12-23 (34.3 percent) ATS in conference games (2-6 ATS this season) and 4-8 as a road dog (33.3 percent).

The Nittany Lions survived their scare last week and know they likely must win to make the CFP and may need to win impressively to stay in position to host a playoff game, while Maryland is playing their first meaningless game without a chance to make a bowl game since Mike Locksley’s first season in 2019.  

Maryland UNDER 12.5 (FanDuel) ✅

Maryland’s offense has been awful this season. They’re 93rd in SP+, 91st in success rate, and 86th in points per drive. They haven’t been able to get their rushing (103rd in yards per carry) or passing (99th in yards per pass) attacks going.

It’s an offense going in the wrong direction. After averaging 33.4 PPG in their first five games, the Terps have managed 18.3 PPG in their past six. And their quarterback, Billy Edwards Jr., is banged up, according to head coach Locksley, who hinted at his passer dealing with back issues for most of the season. Locksley said he expects Edwards to “make himself available” but added that MJ Morris would start if “Billy can’t go,” language we haven’t heard through the season.

Edwards, who is also dealing with a hand injury, left last week’s game twice (in the first half and again in the second half), the second time after taking a whopping hit. 

This is how PSU’s defense has done in their past five at home: 0 points by Kent State, 7 points by Illinois, 11 points by UCLA (including a TD with 16 seconds left), 20 points by Ohio State, and 6 points by Washington. Tom Allen’s defense has held seven opponents to 13 points or less this season.

The Nittany Lions D is top-notch (feel free to skip this part if you’ve heard it before): 5th in SP+, 6th in points per drive, 7th in yards per play allowed, 11th in EPA, and 14th in success rate.

Taking out the COVID season, the Terps (with mostly good offenses) have scored 29 points in four games (7.25) against Penn State under Locksley.

IOWA -3 Nebraska (ESPNBets) =

Iowa is the better overall team. Let’s start there. The Hawkeyes are ranked 17th by SP+, 23rd in net points/drive, and 30th in EPA margin, compared to the Cornhuskers, ranked 55th by SP+, 72nd in net points/drive, and 40th in EPA margin.

They’re also a different team at home, where Iowa has won four straight in Kinnick since losing to (potentially CFP-bound) Iowa State. They haven’t just won; they’ve smoked the opposition. In three B1G home games, the Hawkeyes have won by margins of 24, 26, and 32 points while averaging 40.7 PPG.

Junior RB Kaleb Johnson is the engine that makes this offense go. He’s putting up massive numbers (1,492 yards, 6.7 YPC, 21 TDs) and has also been better at home (7.4 YPC, 14 TDs) than on the road (5.9 YPC, 7 TDs). Johnson is running behind a much improved offensive line and is backed up by redshirt freshman Kamari Moulton, who has rushed for 74-plus yards in two of the past three games.

Jackson Stratton is slated to start, but Cade McNamara and Brendan Sullivan returned to practice this week. McNamara is more likely to be available for Friday. While the quarterback position is in flux, their top two tight ends, Luke Lachey and Addison Ostrenga, returned to the gridiron last week after missing several games.

You might be surprised to learn SP+ gives Iowa’s offense a significant edge (62nd) compared to Nebraska’s (90th), which is borne out by their yards per play: Hawkeyes average 5.74 (70th), and the Cornhuskers average 5.34 (101st).

Then there is the monster special teams edge in favor of the home team. Iowa’s unit ranks 6th in SP+, among the best in college football, while Nebraska ranks 112th among the B1G’s worst.

Finally, we have a Hawkeyes team that looked rejuvenated coming out of their bye and is primed to finish the season strong. The Cornhuskers are coming off winning their Super Bowl—clinching their first bowl appearance since 2016—so how can there not be a letdown from the boys from Lincoln six days later?

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-1 | Season: 17-13 (+4 UNITS)

Nebraska UNDER 17.5 (FanDuel) ✅

Phil Parker’s defense isn’t as dominant as the past couple of seasons, but it’s still an excellent group, with many multiple-year starters playing in their final home game.

Iowa’s defense comes into its season finale ranked 7th by SP+, 7th in points/drive, 15th in EPA, 32nd in yards per play, and 64th in success rate. It matches up well against Nebraska’s offense, ranked 90th by SP+, 72nd in points/drive, 53rd in EPA, 101st in yards per play, and 79th in success rate.

Yes, the Cornhuskers put up 44 points last week, but that was at home against a Wisconsin team that was flat off their near-upset of Oregon. Freshman Dylan Raiola has dealt with his share of lumps on the road (2 TDs, 6 INTs), especially against top-20 defenses (0 TDs, 4 INTs, 5.08 YPA vs. Ohio State & Indiana).

It’s hard to imagine he won’t make a few mistakes against a back seven led by CASH Sebastian Castro, safety Quinn Schulte (3 INTs, 3 PDs), MIKE Jay Higgins (4 INTs, 5 PDs), and WILL Nick Jackson (1 INT, 6 PDs).

This defense has allowed 14.3 PPG in their past four games, 13.3 PPG in Kinnick Stadium, and 16 points or less in all three home conference games. It’s been a heck of a three-year run for many of these defenders, and they will put a bow on their careers with a strong showing in their final game in Iowa City.

Illinois -7 NORTHWESTERN (Fanatics) ✅

This isn’t one of those rivalries where you throw out the records. Before last year’s two-point Northwestern win, the margin was 18-plus points in four straight and at least two touchdowns in nine of ten. The Wildcats got the Illini in 2023, but Illinois thumped Northwestern 41-3 and 47-14 in the previous two matchups.

In Bret Bielema’s first two seasons, he had the better team and blew out the Wildcats. Last year, David Braun had a better season and won his first game in this rivalry. This Saturday, the ball is back in Bielema’s court. Illinois is the superior team, and it’s not that close.

The Illini are ranked 42nd by SP+, 49th in EPA margin, 50th in net points/drive, and 29th in net field position, compared to the Wildcats, who are ranked 100th by SP+, 81st in EPA margin, 114th in net points/drive, and 97th in net field position.

Illinois has a considerable edge mostly because it has a competent offense led by an above-average quarterback in Luke Altmyer (20 TDs, 3 INTs, 61%, 7.7 YPA). If you exclude games against the top five teams, Oregon and Penn State, Altmyer has 13 TD passes and no INTs in six B1G games. Pat Bryant (50 receptions, 914 yards, 18.3 YPC, 9 TDs) is by far the most explosive weapon either team has.

The passing offense is 22nd in EPA/dropback and 42nd in success rate/dropback. They should be able to eat against a Northwestern pass defense, ranked 77th in EPA/dropback and 111th in success rate/dropback.

Illinois is also finding better balance on offense of late behind Josh McCray (6.6 YPC, 5 TDs in the past three) and Aidan Laughery (4.9 YPC in the past five), who are running well with increased loads. Altmyer can also use his legs, with 48-plus yards and a rushing TD in three of the past six games. 

The special teams should favor the “road team,” as the Illini are ranked 18th by SP+ compared to Northwestern’s 97th ranking. Saturday isn’t a true home game for the Cats, as they will kick off at Wrigley Field.

The bottom line is that they are the better team. Coming off their bye, Illinois has won two straight, scoring 38 points in the past two weeks vs. Michigan State and at Rutgers. As we’ve said for much of the season, while the polls might overrate the Illini (No. 23 in the CFP), the books undervalue them, which is why Bielema’s team is 7-3-1 ATS.

INDIANA -28.5 Purdue (BetMGM) ✅

This is as big of a mismatch as we’ve had in the Big Ten this season. It’s a name-your-score game for Indiana. We laid 28.5 with Penn State at Purdue, so we will happily do it again as the Boilermakers face the most rabid crowd they’ve ever seen in Bloomington in the history of the Old Oaken Bucket.

We can almost carbon copy our analysis from two weeks ago.

Indiana is ranked 3rd in net points/drive, 8th in EPA margin, and 11th in SP+, while Purdue is 132nd in net points/drive, 114th in EPA margin, and 118th in SP+.

The Boilermakers have allowed at least 35 points in seven games, 45+ five times, and three opponents have cracked the 50-point plateau against them. Lacking the personnel to match what they want in the secondary, Purdue’s defense is 118th in success rate and 124th in EPA.

Not lacking in weapons, Indiana’s offense is 1st in success rate and 3rd in EPA. They will also want to flex after being held well below their season average against Michigan and Ohio State in the past two weeks, especially as they look to secure a CFP bid.

The Boilermakers are just what Dr. Style Points ordered. Against four playoff-caliber teams, they’ve lost 66-7 vs. Notre Dame, 35-0 vs. Oregon, 45-0 at Ohio State, and 49-10 vs. Penn State. That’s an average score of 48.8 to 4.3 with an average margin of 45.5! I said it two weeks ago, and I’ll repeat it: insane!

Has any team done a better job blowing out bad teams than the Hoosiers? They’ve won five games by 29-plus points and are 8-2 ATS as a favorite, while Purdue is 2-7 ATS as an underdog.

The Boilermakers gave Michigan State a game last week (lost 24-17). The previous two times they were competitive in a conference game, Purdue responded with losses by 35 and 45 points.

Purdue UNDER 13.5 (FanDuel) ✅

I don’t see how Purdue moves the ball on Saturday. Their offense is 124th in points/drive, 102nd in EPA (107th rushing, 115th dropback), 111th in SP+, and 93rd in success rate (93rd rushing, 85th/dropback).

The Boilermakers have played six games against defenses ranked in the SP+ top 30: 7 points against Notre Dame, 10 points against Nebraska, 6 points at Wisconsin, 0 points against Oregon, 0 points at Ohio State, and 10 points vs. Penn State. That’s 5.5 PPG.

Indiana is ranked 13th in points/drive, 16th in EPA (12th rushing, 19th/dropback), 11th in SP+, and 13th in success rate (7th rushing, 37th/dropback).

Purdue scored 17 points last week, the third time they’ve put up more than 10 points in a conference game. How did they follow up on the first two efforts? The Boilermakers were shut out the following week each time. Zero momentum built.

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 6-4 (+3 UNITS)

USC +7.5 Notre Dame (FanDuel) ❌

We’ve been on many USC games this season, and a big reason is their home/road splits. We’ve faded Lincoln Riley away from the friendly confines, but the Trojans are better when they play in LA.

On the road, USC is 1-4 straight up and 1-4 ATS, with their lone win/cover coming at UCLA last week. In LA Memorial Coliseum, the Trojans are 4-1 and 5-0 ATS, with their lone loss coming to No. 4 Penn State in overtime in a game SC easily could (should?) have won. 

The Trojans have a good offense, ranked 14th in EPA, 23rd in success rate, 24th by SP+, and 34th in yards per play, with a very underrated rushing attack (22nd in YPC). Woody Marks (1,100 yards, 5.7 YPC, 9 TDs) is one of my favorite running backs to watch pound the football. They also have one of the deepest groups of pass catchers, with eight Trojans logging over 200 receiving yards. Pass protection has been better at home, including just one sack allowed versus PSU.

This will be a test for Notre Dame, who will have all the pressure on them if this one is close in the second half (USC has had the lead in the fourth quarter of every game). Since beating Texas A&M in Week 1, the Irish have faced six offenses ranked 88th or lower by SP+, nine ranked 46th or lower, with only Louisville in the top 45, a 31-24 Irish win at home. During their ten-game winning streak, the Golden Domers faced one team ranked in SP+’s top 60.

USC’s defense isn’t terrible, and it is well-coached. They’re 36th in SP+ and 40th in EPA. Notre Dame’s special teams are awful, a legit weakness (99th in SP+), and an opportunity to swing the game in favor of the Trojans.

The point here isn’t to say that the Men of Troy are better or as good. They’re not. However, the gap isn’t that wide, especially at USC, while Notre Dame hasn’t played a road game since September 14 at Purdue. This is also the first time the Irish pass defense will be tested without All-American CB Benjamin Morrison. We’ll gobble (gobble, gobble) up the 7.5 points and the final remains of our Thanksgiving Day leftovers.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)

None.

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