College Football Week 10 Predictions | Saturday Picks Today, Best Bets

The college football season is about to find a new gear. Heading into the final month of the regular season, several teams are still fighting for their playoff lives, needing a solid end to the season to be included in the 12-team format. Even teams that don’t have a shot at the College Football Playoff are trying to stay in conference races or remain bowl-eligible. With that, we’re expecting one of the best weekends of the season in Week 10.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions

Spread: Ohio State -3.5 (+100) | Penn State +3.5 (-122)
Moneyline: Ohio State -150 | Penn State +125
Total: OVER 45.5 (-110) | UNDER 45.5 (-110)

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Inarguably the marquee matchup of the week, the third-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions host the fourth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes as +3.5 underdogs. Ohio State desperately needs to secure the win to stay in the Big Ten conversation, but the Nittany Lions have other plans.

We’ve seen a downturn in the Buckeyes’ efficiency lately. Ohio State dropped Week 7’s tilt versus the Oregon Ducks, getting out-gained for the first time this season. Taking a week to recover, they looked equally disappointing in last Saturday’s narrow 21-17 win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. In that contest, the Buckeyes managed just 285 yards of offense and needed a late-game score to secure the win. The Buckeyes will face an even stouter defense in a more hostile environment. 

Penn State’s unforgiving defense has been the foundation of its success. So far this season, the Nittany Lions have allowed the fourth-fewest yards (267.7) and seventh-fewest points (14.3). Not surprisingly, both of those standards improve at Beaver Stadium. With their home faithful at their backs, the Nittany Lions hold visitors to 11.3 points and 230.3 yards per game. 

Ohio State appeared outmatched against the Cornhuskers’ defense, which is a bad omen for Saturday’s encounter. For years, Penn State has tried to prove that it belonged among the Big Ten’s elite and this is its opportunity to cement itself as one of the best. The Nittany Lions easily cover, pulling off the upset win at home.

Recommended Play: Penn State +125

2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 10 of College Football Season

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

Spread: Arizona State -4.5 (-105) | Oklahoma State +4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Arizona State -170 | Oklahoma State +140
Total: OVER 57.5 (-105) | UNDER 57.5 (-115)

Mike Gundy is coaching like his job depends on it—and it probably does. The Oklahoma State Cowboys have stumbled to a 3-5 record, with all those losses coming over their last five games. They’ll try to stop the bleeding with a Week 10 battle against the Arizona State Sun Devils. 

After two ineffective performances, Gundy pivoted quarterbacks in Week 6. Unfortunately, the move was short-lived. In his first start, Garret Rangel suffered a season-ending collarbone injury, necessitating a shift back to Alan Bowman. The benching may have lit a fire under Bowman, as he had one of his best starts of the season last week. The senior completed 28 of 42 passes for 359 yards and a touchdown. With Ollie Gordon reiterating his commitment to the program earlier in the week, we anticipate another strong offensive showing in the Cowboys’ homecoming game. 

We’re also taking a stance against the Sun Devils’ offense. Arizona State has struggled on the road this season, posting substantive decreases in its offensive metrics. Their points per game drop from 35.0 at home to 22.3 on the road, a decline validated by their ineffective production. The Sun Devils see nearly a 100-point drop in their yards per game total, falling from 434.5 to 356.3. 

Not surprisingly, the only game the Sun Devils have covered as visitors was Week 3’s encounter versus the Group of Five Texas State Bobcats. Still, they only pulled off a three-point win. We’re taking a firm stance on the hosts in this one. While Oklahoma State should be able to cover the +4.5 spread, we wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off the outright upset.

Recommended Play: Oklahoma State +4.5 -115

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Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes

Spread: Duke +20.5 (-115) | Miami -20.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Duke +810 | Miami -1450
Total: OVER 54.5 (-112) | UNDER 45.5 (-108)

The Miami Hurricanes have vaulted themselves to the front of the ACC pack. Surviving a couple of close encounters, the Hurricanes remain one of the eight undefeated teams left in the country. They’ll turn to their offense again, looking to stay perfect against the Duke Blue Devils. 

Offensively, no one can hang with Miami. The Hurricanes lead the nation in total offense, averaging 562.4 yards per game against FBS competition. That correlates with elite scoring efficiency, with the Hurricanes averaging 45.4 points per game. Predictably, Miami has been in high-scoring games week after week, going 6-1-1 to the over this season. 

Unfortunately, their inability to defend is also reflected in those high-scoring games. The Hurricanes are giving up 23.2 points per game on the season, and a massive jump to 32.3 over their past three. That leaves the door open for the Blue Devils to continue their recent offensive ascent. Duke is coming off one of its better offensive performances of the season, putting up 27 points on 394 yards against the SMU Mustangs last time out. 

Duke’s offensive strength is Miami’s defensive weakness. The Blue Devils rely on their passing game to get the ball downfield, and the Hurricanes’ pass defense metrics are eroding. Miami will have no problem putting up points against the Blue Devils. Still, the Duke should do enough on offense to send this game over the total.

Recommended Play: Over 54.5 -112

Arizona Wildcats vs UCF Knights

Spread: Arizona +6.5 (-115) | UCF -6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Arizona +176 | UCF -215
Total: OVER 56.5 (-106) | UNDER 56.5 (-114)

Bettors have taken a firm stance against the over, but we expect points to be scored when the UCF Knights host the Arizona Wildcats. Both teams feature offensive playmakers who can expose their opponents’ defensive vulnerabilities. Consequently, this one could easily sail over the total. 

The Wildcats’ offense, led by Tetairoa McMillan, is premised on airing it out. McMillan is coming off a 202-yard receiving effort and should be able to replicate that success against the Knights. UCF’s passing defense has been a glaring weakness, giving up 269.0 yards per game, the 21st-most in the nation. 

Similarly, the Wildcats have an exploitable run defense that should allow RJ Harvey to run freely all day. The Knights running back has the fourth-most rushing yards in the country and has seen an increase in his productivity over the past couple of games. Since Week 8, Harvey is up to 323 rushing yards on 41 carries, for a robust average of 7.9 yards per carry. Combined with Arizona’s 83rd-ranked rush defense, Harvey is primed for a solid showing.

This has all the makings of a last-possession game. The Knights and Wildcats should run rampant all afternoon, resulting in one of the highest-scoring games of the day. Further, that should allow the Wildcats to stay within one score, covering the spread as +6.5 underdogs.

Recommended Play: Arizona +6.5 -115, Over 56.5 -106

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