College Football Week 13 Predictions | Saturday Picks Today, Best Bets

The stakes in college football have never been higher. With two weeks left in the regular season, virtually every conference is still up for grabs. As we know, Power Four conference champs are awarded an automatic playoff berth, but eight other spots are still in play. That means the intensity only gets ratcheted higher as we speed toward an exciting conclusion of the 2024 season.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Liberty Flames

Spread: Western Kentucky +1.5 (-122) | Liberty -1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Western Kentucky -111 | Liberty -108
Total: OVER 56.5 (-105) | UNDER 56.5 (-115)

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As usual, we’re starting with some Group of 5 heat. At the start of the season, the Liberty Flames were among the top Group of Five teams expected to compete for a College Football Playoff berth. However, two losses partway through the year have all but doused the Flames. While the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers dropped their third decision of the season last week, only one of those has come in conference play. That puts the Hilltoppers in control of their own destiny as they try to secure a spot in the CUSA Championship Game. 

Take a close look at this betting line. WKU enters the contest as short +1.5 underdogs but is listed as a betting favorite on the moneyline. That represents an influx of bettors expecting the Hilltoppers to leave Williams Stadium with the win. However, our analysis supports the opposite.

Western Kentucky operates a one-dimensional offense. Their scoring is predicated on moving the ball downfield via the pass, one of Liberty’s biggest strengths. The Flames limit opponents to an average of 195.1 passing yards per game, with the last three teams mustering just 173.7. Moreover, Liberty has been more efficient on offense, averaging more yards and points than their Week 13 counterparts. 

Undoubtedly, this will be one of the most entertaining games on Saturday, but the Flames have a few advantages that aren’t reflected in the betting price. They should be able to contain the Hilltoppers offense and deploy their own attack against a beatable defense. We like Liberty’s chances of triumphing on Saturday afternoon with the home faithful at their backs.

Recommended Play: Liberty Moneyline -108

2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 13 of College Football Season

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

Spread: Texas Tech -4.5 (-110) | Oklahoma State +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Texas Tech -184 | Oklahoma State +152
Total: OVER 65.5 (-110) | UNDER 65.5 (-110)

The Big 12 remains one of the most intriguing conference races in 2024. Four teams still have a shot of claiming a berth in the championship game and potentially claiming an automatic berth in the CFP. With three losses, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are effectively eliminated from contention. Still, they’ll be looking to earn a more prominent bowl game nomination with a solid end to the season. That continues with Week 13’s tilt versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

Losers of seven in a row, it’s been easy to dismiss the Cowboys’ chances as the season progresses. Still, a few factors are working in their favor ahead of Saturday’s intra-conference tilt. First, OK State still possesses a dynamic offense. Running back Ollie Gordon and wide receiver Brennan Presley give the Cowboys a solid one-two punch on offense, and they get to work against an ineffective Texas Tech defense on Saturday. The Red Raiders give up the fifth-most passing yards in the country and also give up a concerning amount of yards on the ground.

Anticipated offensive success doesn’t absolve the Cowboys of their defensive inefficiency. Oklahoma State has been burned for 525.3 yards per game over their last six contests, ensuring that Tahj Brooks and the Red Raiders easily move the ball at Boone Pickens Stadium. 

Neither team has a defensive advantage, leaving an edge in backing the over in this one. However, we also like the Cowboys’ chances of staying within striking distance as the game progresses. Oklahoma State can roll out its air raid offense in one final home game, staying within +4.5 against Texas Tech.

Recommended Play: Over 65.5 -110. Oklahoma State +4.5 -110

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Pittsburgh Panthers vs Louisville Cardinals

Spread: Pittsburgh +8.5 (-115) | Louisville -8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Pittsburgh +245 | Louisville -310
Total: OVER 57.5 (-112) | UNDER 57.5 (-108)

A few weeks ago, the Pittsburgh Panthers appeared destined for the ACC Championship Game. Pittsburgh started the season on an impressive seven-game winning streak, putting the conference on notice. A three-game losing streak has since tempered expectations, but the Panthers could return to their winning ways against the Louisville Cardinals in Week 13. 

Pittsburgh has seen a decrease in scoring, which isn’t substantiated by limited production. The Panthers are holding steady with 394.3 yards per game during their three-game losing skid, which is roughly on par with their season average of 403.4. As such, it becomes challenging to reconcile the nearly ten-point drop they’ve had in scoring. We’re anticipating a more robust offensive showing against the defensively irresponsible Cardinals. 

Last week, Louisville made the Stanford Cardinal look like they were back in their heyday. Stanford scored 38 points on 406 yards, both season-bests against FBS opponents. That dropped Louisville’s season-long average to 402.4 yards allowed per game, ranking them among the bottom tier of college football programs. Further, they’ve been wholly outmatched at home, giving up an average of 429.8 yards per game. 

The Panthers should be able to move the ball with ease against the Cardinals. While bettors have taken a position on Pittsburgh to cover the hefty spread as underdogs, we like their chances of pulling off the stunning outright upset. At the current price, we’re backing Pitt on the moneyline.

Recommended Play: Pittsburgh Moneyline +245

USC Trojans vs UCLA Bruins

Spread: USC -4.5 (-110) | UCLA +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: USC -188 | UCLA +155
Total: OVER 51.5 (-114) | UNDER 51.5 (-106)

This used to be one of the most vaunted matchups of the entire season. Now, the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins are fighting for the chance to stay bowl-eligible. The Trojans are installed as -4.5 road chalk against their cross-town rivals, but that’s misplaced confidence for a team that has struggled as the visitors this season. 

USC has been installed as favorites in all four road games this season, and they’ve come up short in all four contests. Not only have they not covered, but the Trojans have lost all four of those games. Moreover, the Trojans have looked lost on both sides of the ball. They are giving up 20 more yards per game as visitors while averaging 50 fewer on offense. 

With only four wins on the season, the Bruins can’t boast about much these days. But they haven’t given up on the season yet. UCLA is up to 364.7 yards per game over its previous three contests, a substantive jump from their season-long average of 320.9. Predictably, that correlates with an increase in scoring. The Bruins have tallied 22.0 points per game across the three-game sample, over a four-point jump relative to their previous standing. 

We’ve lost faith in the Trojans’ ability to cover on the road. They’ve continually been outplayed and collapsed in the waning moments of nearly every contest. UCLA needs two wins to salvage their season and secure a bowl game. As a result, we’re anticipating a fierce effort against their hated rivals. It might not be enough to leave with a victory, but they should be able to cover the spread versus USC.

Recommended Play: UCLA +4.5 -110

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