NCAAF · 2 hours ago

College Football Week 4 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Sometimes, when you bet on team total unders, you may lose because the special teams give up points. Sometimes it happens twice. Hopefully, we don’t have too many more of those days!

Week 4 of the College Football season offers us an eight-pack of Big Ten games, five in conference, as ten programs suit up in Big Ten play for the first time this season, and three out-of-conference contests. Intriguing, the only three rematches from 2024 are the non-con games. That’s football in 2025. We have ATS, game total, and team total picks with plays in seven of eight games for you this week.

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

B1G: Power Rankings | Bowl Projections | W4 Predictions

Last Week: 0-2 (-1.5 UNITS) | Overall: 10-9 (+1 UNIT)

Not So B1G Bets: 6-6 (EVEN UNITS) | B1G Bets: 4-3 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 3-6 (-1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 6-2 (+2.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-1 (EVEN UNITS)

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 6-6 (EVEN UNITS)

Iowa -1.5 RUTGERS (FanDuel)

FRI | Time: 8:00 PM | TV: FOX

We start at the birthplace of College Football tonight. Through three games, Rutgers has been the better team. They also have yet to play a Power Four opponent, so this is a big step up after their cupcake out-of-conference slate. I still trust Iowa more, and their style of football travels well. They run the ball, play elite special teams, and have a top-notch defense.

They are 12-3 on the road over the past four seasons against non-top 10 opponents, and one of those losses was at UCLA. Most traditional Big Ten teams had trouble last season on the West Coast. Kirk Ferentz’s teams typically win the games they are supposed to win. They are 17-4 straight up when the spread is three points or less (either way) since 2020, including 11-2 in their past 13.

Quarterback Mark Gronowski hasn’t lived up to expectations, but this is a good matchup for Iowa’s offense. They have run the ball well, and RB1 Kamari Moulton is slated to return after missing the past two games. He brings home run potential, while Jaziun Patterson is a between-the-tackles rusher. Then there’s Gronowksi, who is an effective runner going up against a Rutgers team that has had problems corralling mobile quarterbacks.

It’s not just quarterbacks, as the Scarlet Knights have been among the worst teams against the run, despite their schedule. They rank 128th in yards per rush allowed (5.58). Overall, RU’s defense is 118th in EPA, 86th in points per drive, and 83rd in success rate. With a strong offensive line, the Hawkeyes will control the line of scrimmage.

This line has moved from 2.5 to 1.5 this morning.

RUTGERS UNDER 22.5 (-108 FanDuel)

Iowa will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Hawkeyes are excellent upfront, while Rutgers could be down three of their top four offensive tackles. Projected starter Ryder Langsdale was lost in the preseason, Week 1 left tackle Dantae Chin went down in Week 2, and Tyler Needham was injured last week. That’s a lot to lose at one position, making them very vulnerable.

As they’ve become more of a passing offense, left tackle has become that much more critical. Expect Athan Kaliakmanis to face a lot more pressure than he has thus far. Moreover, he will likely be without WR1 Ian Strong, a difference maker on the perimeter. RU still has passing options, but it weakens the team’s strongest unit.

Iowa’s defense is still among the best in college football, ranked 12th by SP+ and 13th in points per drive. So far this season, the Hawkeyes have allowed 7, 16, and 7 points (10 PPG). They allowed non-top ten teams to score more than 21 points only once in the past 22 matchups, and twice in the past 36 tries (including a 24-point score once). Unless you’re an elite team, coming away with points against Iowa isn’t easy.

Would have loved to give this out when it was 23.5, but we’re still on it at 22.5.

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Illinois +6.5 INDIANA (FanDuel)

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: NBC

These are pretty even teams, aren’t they?

Let’s look at the numbers: Indiana is tenth in net EPA/drive, ninth in net points/drive, and 12th in net yards/play, compared to Illinois, which is 13th in net EPA/drive, second in net points/drive, and 38th in net yards/play. If you want to factor in the schedule, it’s the Illini who have played a Power Four school, compared to Indiana’s three opponents, all of which are ranked 85th (Old Dominion) or worse by SP+.

On a neutral field, I’d lean towards the Hoosiers, but even with home-field advantage, IU hasn’t proven they are 6.5 points better.

You know I’m not one to bet against Curt Cignetti, especially as a favorite. They like to bully teams. I mean, really bully them. But let’s consider last season’s Hoosiers, who played three teams that had winning regular-season records. They went 1-2. Let’s throw out losses to Ohio State and Notre Dame, which leaves us with a 20-15 victory over a seven-win Michigan team as a 14-point home favorite. Illinois will not be a pushover.

As a road dog in 2024, Bret Bielema’s team was 3-1 ATS and 2-2 straight up with losses to No. 9 Penn State and No. 1 Oregon. Go back further, since Bielema took over in 2021, they are 15-5 ATS on the road and 12-4 as the road underdog, including seven outright wins. Specific coaches are good when they are getting points. Think Jeff Brohm (formerly of Purdue) and Brent Key. Bielema is one of those coaches.

UNDER 44.5 Maryland-WISCONSIN (FanDuel)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: NBC

When this line opened at 6.5, I was leaning towards Wisconsin, but it has since shifted all the way to 10, so I’m going to pass.

Maryland’s defense has been excellent (11 PPG), really lights out by some metrics. It was against subpar competition, so I won’t read too much into it. Subpar is a good way to describe Wisconsin’s offense. Their top three running backs have yet to record a single carry of 15-plus yards. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has five TD passes and four interceptions. It’s looking like QB1 Billy Edwards Jr. might play, but he remains a game-time decision, and C Jake Renfro re-injured his ankle last week against Alabama as he tried to play through his injury. He’s day-to-day and not 100 percent. The Badgers were lucky to score 14 points on the Tide (KR TD and a garbage-time TD).

On the other hand, I like what Wisconsin brings to the defensive side of the ball, despite its showing last week. They shouldn’t have too much trouble slowing down a Maryland offense that’s ranked 111th in EPA/drive, 98th in offensive success rate, and 87th in points per drive. The Terps are led by a true freshman quarterback who has shown promise but will be making his maiden road start in his first career game against a Power Four defense.

This smells like an under. Make sure to jump around every time either defense forces a punt.

WASHINGTON OVER 35.5 (-115 DraftKings) @ Washington State

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: CBS

I really like this Washington offense (tied for third with 54 PPG). They’re second in EPA/drive, 11th in success rate, and 13th in points per drive. It’s also a balanced attack with dynamic Demond Williams Jr. (9.8 YPA, 6.3 YPC) pulling the trigger and Jonah Coleman (288 yards, 7.4 YPC) ready to rumble. They can slice you through the air and on the ground.

Washington State feels like a sacrificial lamb being sent to slaughter. Their defense is 119th in SP+, 118th in success rate, 116th in points/drive, and 94th in EPA/drive. The Cougars are especially bad against the run (130th in success rate and 96th in EPA/rush), so even if the Huskies take their foot off the gas in the second half, they should be able to move the ball on the ground. Don’t be surprised to see RB2 Adam Mohammed (5.7 YPC) have a strong game.

Washington hosts Ohio State next week. There are three reasons why I’m not worried about them looking ahead. One, this is a rivalry game. Two, the Huskies are coming off their idle week, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare. Three, they lost the Apple Cup last season in a game they gave away to Washington State and should want payback.

OREGON -19.5 (First Half) Oregon State (FanDuel)

Time: 3:00 PM | TV: BTN

With a trip to Penn State in Week 5, you have to believe the Ducks want to go in and take care of business quickly, like they have so far, especially at home.

As a 29.5-point favorite in Week 1, Oregon jumped out to a 38-3 halftime lead. A week later, against Oklahoma State (-28.5), the Ducks were ahead 41-3 going into the locker room. We’re expecting a similar focus against in-state rival Oregon State in the Civil War.

Dante Moore (10.3 YPA, 7 TDs) is finally performing like the five-star recruit he was, doing most of his damage in the first half. Their top three backs all have at least 145 yards rushing, averaging over 7.0 YPC, including 11.4 for RB1 Noah Whittington, and 14.6 (!) for freshman Dierre Hill Jr. Their 22 touchdowns are second in the nation (13 in the first half).

The defense has been just as nasty and has allowed six first-half points through three games. They are No. 1 in net points per drive, No. 4 in net EPA/play, and No. 10 in net yards per play (+3.37) compared to Oregon State, ranked No. 98 in net points per drive, No. 82 in net EPA/play, and No. 122 in net yards per play (-1.31). There’s a reason the Beavers are 0-3 on the season.

We were off on the Ducks last week when they had to travel to the Central Time Zone, playing at 9:00 AM Pacific Time against a Northwestern team that knows how to shorten games. Back at home, we like Oregon to find its explosive touch and go off in the first 30 minutes.

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B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 4-3 (+1 UNITS)

Michigan -1.5 NEBRASKA (FanDuel)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS

I still don’t believe in this Nebraska team. Maybe you don’t believe in this Michigan team. I get that. But I’m confident that the Wolverines have the edge on both lines of scrimmage, and maybe, already have the better quarterback.

The Cornhuskers faced one OK team, Cincinnati, which rushed for 202 yards and 6.7 yards per carry, including 96 yards (7.4 YPC) from their quarterback. This isn’t a vintage Wolverines offensive line, but it’s better than Cincy’s. They also have Justice Haynes, who already has 388 yards (7.9 YPC) and five touchdowns. Did you see Bryce Underwood last week? Michigan finally let him loose, and he rushed for 114 yards and two touchdowns. He also averaged 9.4 yards per pass.

Yes, the true freshman really struggled at Oklahoma in Week 2, his only road game so far. Here’s the difference: OU’s defensive front is its strength; Nebraska’s is a weakness. They don’t get much pressure and can be run on (103rd in success rate), which is why the Wolverines get the edge here. Additionally, Underwood has been through this against a more formidable opponent; he will be much better prepared this Saturday than he was two weeks ago.

Michigan’s defense is still very staunch and nearly impossible to run on, especially if you don’t have a dual-threat quarterback. The one concern has been the lack of production from their edge rushers, as Derrick Moore, TJ Guy, and Cameron Brandt (who combined for 13.5 sacks last season) have yet to get to the quarterback.

Enter Jaishawn Barham, who switched from linebacker to EDGE last week and had two sacks in a half of football. Not only is he their best pass rusher, but it also allows the Wolverines to flaunt their linebacker depth and get youngsters Cole Sullivan (13 tackles, 2 sacks) and Troy Bowles (1 sack), who are excellent blitzers, on the field more. Sullivan is a rising star. DC Wink Martindale has long been a blitz master, and Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola has been ineffective when pressured in his young career.

Matt Rhule’s teams have been bullies. They can handle inferior opponents, but are not as impressive when they have to fight in their weight class or above. As an underdog under Rhule, the Huskers are 2-11 straight up and 4-7 ATS.

USC OVER 36.5 (-105 DraftKings) vs. Michigan State

Time: 11:00 PM | TV: FOX

USC’s offense has been as good (55 PPG is 2nd nationally!) as any we’ve seen in college football through the first three weeks of the season. Offensively, they’re first in EPA, second in points/drive, and third in success rate. Not into the advanced metrics? How do you feel about 9.6 yards per play!?! They’ve gobbled up yards throwing and rushing the football.

Jayden Maiava has played like Lincoln Riley knew what he was doing when he didn’t dip into the portal to bring in an upgrade at quarterback. Maiava is averaging a whopping 14.1 yards per pass with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s only been sacked twice. They might have the best wideout duo in Makai Lemon (16-311-2-19.4 YPC) and Ja’Kobi Lane (9-239-1-26.6 YPC), with TE Lake McRee averaging 24.7 YPC.

The Trojans also have three rushers with 150-plus yards who are all averaging at least 7.0 YPC with multiple touchdowns, led by the explosive Waymond Jordan (286 yards). But our primary focus is USC’s ability to throw the ball against Michigan State.

MSU’s pass defense is 123rd in EPA/pass and 109th in success rate. With no pass rush to speak of, the Trojans are going to light them up. Overall, the Spartans are 108th in defensive EPA/drive and 123rd in EPA per play. They’re 89th in third-down success, so getting USC off the field is going to be a problem.

Against the best offense they’ve faced so far, Boston College (54th in SP+) threw for 390 yards. That was in East Lansing, and the Eagles aren’t even close to as explosive as the Men of Troy (third in SP+ on offense). USC was 5-1 ATS last season at home, and it wasn’t because of their defense.

Under Riley, the Trojans have scored 38 points or more in 16 of 22 home games. Five of the six defenses that kept them under 38 points were ranked in the top 20 in scoring defense that season (one was 38th), including Penn State (USC scored 30) and Notre Dame (35) in 2024. Sparty isn’t that caliber. Not even close.